GOP pulls ahead in VA Gov race. Statistically tied 48% - 47%
The campaign for governor of Virginia remains up for grabs, with Republican Ed Gillespie and Democrat Ralph Northam locked in a one point race. The Monmouth University Poll finds the race becoming more regionally divided, with Gillespie widening the gap in Western Virginia and Northam picking up steam in Northern Virginia. Northam has a better net favorable rating, but Gillespie has built issue advantages in some key areas.
Currently, 48% of likely voters support Gillespie, the former national GOP party leader, and 47% support Northam, the Commonwealth's current lieutenant governor. Libertarian Cliff Hyra gets 3% of the vote and 3% are undecided. Last month, Northam had a 49% to 44% edge over Gillespie while the race was tied at 44% each in July.
"This has never been more than a five point race in Monmouth's polling, and that means either candidate has a very real shot at winning this thing. We have seen lots of little movement that has either helped or hurt each candidate but with neither one being able to break out," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Regional political differences play a significant role in Virginia election outcomes. Northam has expanded his vote share in Northern Virginia to 64% over 32% for Gillespie, compared with a 56% to 39% lead in September. Gillespie, on the other hand, has built up his lead in the conservative western part of the Commonwealth, now with a 64% to 31% lead over Northam there compared with a 50% to 43% edge last month. Eastern Virginia - Northam's home region which backed Democrats in recent elections for governor and U.S. Senate - has become more competitive, now split at 48% for the Republican and 45% for the Democrat, whereas Northam had a 49%-40% lead in September. Central Virginia - which tends to be a swing region - remains tight at 47% for Gillespie and 44% for Northam, which is similar to September's close margin of 49% Northam and 48% Gillespie.
"As the northern and western parts of Virginia revert to their partisan norms, the battle for swing voters will occur right down the I-95 corridor," said Murray.
The poll found the Republican nominee has gained ground on some key campaign issues, particularly in conservative and swing areas of the state. Among all Virginia voters, Gillespie is preferred over Northam on handling jobs and the economy by a 41% to 29% margin, which is slightly better than his 38% to 33% edge on this concern in September. In particular, Gillespie now has a 43% to 24% advantage on the jobs issue in Eastern Virginia, reversing a 31% to 37% deficit there last month.
Gillespie also maintains his advantage on handling crime - 40% of Virginia voters prefer the Republican and 24% choose the Democrat. Gillespie had a 35%-27% edge on this issue in September. He has enjoyed big gains on this concern in Western Virginia, where he now holds a 55% to 13% advantage over Northam. Last month, Gillespie had a smaller 41%-26% advantage on the crime issue in this region.
"Painting Northam as soft on crime, especially with the MS-13 gang spots, appears to have been effective. This is a game of inches right now, so any small advantage counts," said Murray.
Northam, on the other hand, continues to have the upper hand when it comes to handling health care (42% to 32%) and education (39% to 27%). Both of these gaps are slightly, but not significantly, more narrow than in September when the Democrat had a 45%-29% edge on health care and a 45%-28% edge on education. Most of this slippage comes from voters in the western part of the Commonwealth, where Gillespie is now preferred over Northam on health care (44% to 28%) and education (34% to 22%). Northam had held a slight advantage on both issues in Western Virginia just last month (40%-36% for health care and 40%-34% for education).
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_VA_101717/
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I was in a garage today. They had a country music station on. Gillespie is running ads say Northam wants to spend millions of dollars taking down Confederate monuments. "Ralph Northam thinks the most important issue facing Virginia is Confederate monuments." I fear this may resonate. We've already seen that, at the end of the day, republicans will vote for ANYONE with a r beside their name. Very worried. The Governorship is all that stands between us and becoming another North Carolina with bathroom bills and further abortion restrictions.
