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Why Ed Gillespie is surging in Virginia
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-ed-gillespie-is-surging-in-virginia/2017/10/20/90351bfa-b503-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html?utm_term=.66d5595dff60
In the run-up to Virginia’s 2014 Senate election, Republican Ed Gillespie trailed Sen. Mark Warner (D) by double digits in almost every single public poll. Gillespie knew the polls were wrong, but to the GOP establishment, Warner seemed invincible, and as Election Day approached, the party focused its resources on more “winnable” races (such as Scott Brown’s failed Senate campaign in New Hampshire). Two weeks before Election Day, Gillespie tried to get the GOP to kick in just $350,000 for ads and get-out-the-vote efforts, but his pleas fell on deaf ears.
In the end, he lost not by double digits, or even single digits. He lost by just eight-tenths of a percentage point. As Larry Sabato explained, “Had outside Republican groups invested more than a pittance in Gillespie . . . he might be in the Senate today.” Indeed, if Republicans had invested even a pittance — just $350,000 — it would almost certainly have put him over the top.
The lesson should be clear: Don’t underestimate Gillespie.
Now Gillespie is running for governor, and just a few weeks ago, many were once again writing him off. An Oct. 3 Post-Schar School poll showed Gillespie trailing his opponent, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D), by 13 points. Gillespie wasn’t buying it. “I’m in a dead-heat race, within the margin of error,” he tells me.
Already, he’s being proved right once again. An Oct. 17 Christopher Newport University poll showed Northam’s lead had tightened to just 4 points. Then, a few days later, a Monmouth University poll showed Gillespie leading Northam by 1 point.
In the run-up to Virginia’s 2014 Senate election, Republican Ed Gillespie trailed Sen. Mark Warner (D) by double digits in almost every single public poll. Gillespie knew the polls were wrong, but to the GOP establishment, Warner seemed invincible, and as Election Day approached, the party focused its resources on more “winnable” races (such as Scott Brown’s failed Senate campaign in New Hampshire). Two weeks before Election Day, Gillespie tried to get the GOP to kick in just $350,000 for ads and get-out-the-vote efforts, but his pleas fell on deaf ears.
In the end, he lost not by double digits, or even single digits. He lost by just eight-tenths of a percentage point. As Larry Sabato explained, “Had outside Republican groups invested more than a pittance in Gillespie . . . he might be in the Senate today.” Indeed, if Republicans had invested even a pittance — just $350,000 — it would almost certainly have put him over the top.
The lesson should be clear: Don’t underestimate Gillespie.
Now Gillespie is running for governor, and just a few weeks ago, many were once again writing him off. An Oct. 3 Post-Schar School poll showed Gillespie trailing his opponent, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D), by 13 points. Gillespie wasn’t buying it. “I’m in a dead-heat race, within the margin of error,” he tells me.
Already, he’s being proved right once again. An Oct. 17 Christopher Newport University poll showed Northam’s lead had tightened to just 4 points. Then, a few days later, a Monmouth University poll showed Gillespie leading Northam by 1 point.
It's not over til it's over. Take nothing for granted.
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