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Related: About this forumPlease read this before you freak out about that new poll in the Virginia governor's race
Politics Analysis
Please read this before you freak out about that new poll in the Virginia governors race
By Philip Bump October 25 at 6:59 PM
Virginias upcoming gubernatorial election has attracted a lot of attention for two primary reasons. ... The first is there isnt a whole lot else going on. ... The second is more important. The race serves as a temperature reading on the national political mood 10 months into the era of President Trump. Its a state the Democrats should win: The sitting governor is a Democrat, and Hillary Clinton won it last November. The Democrats have so far been unable to get a victory in a contested statewide or federal race against a Republican in 2017, often because the Republicans had a home-field advantage. In Virginia, the advantage is the Democrats.
So a new poll from Hampton University released on Wednesday was a shocker. It showed the Republican candidate, Ed Gillespie, leading Democrat Ralph Northam by 8 points.
{snip chart}
For perspective, thats only the second time Gillespies led in a poll in recent weeks, and its the only result thats outside the margin of error to Gillespies benefit.
In other words, reading it quickly: Very bad news for Northam. ... One should not read polls quickly. In this case, theres a critical caveat. Instead of asking respondents who didnt indicate a choice between Northam and Gillespie who they preferred, those respondents were simply listed as dont know. The result is dont know ended up getting more than a quarter of the vote.
....
Scott Clement contributed to this report.
Philip Bump is a correspondent for The Post based in New York City. Follow @pbump
Please read this before you freak out about that new poll in the Virginia governors race
By Philip Bump October 25 at 6:59 PM
Virginias upcoming gubernatorial election has attracted a lot of attention for two primary reasons. ... The first is there isnt a whole lot else going on. ... The second is more important. The race serves as a temperature reading on the national political mood 10 months into the era of President Trump. Its a state the Democrats should win: The sitting governor is a Democrat, and Hillary Clinton won it last November. The Democrats have so far been unable to get a victory in a contested statewide or federal race against a Republican in 2017, often because the Republicans had a home-field advantage. In Virginia, the advantage is the Democrats.
So a new poll from Hampton University released on Wednesday was a shocker. It showed the Republican candidate, Ed Gillespie, leading Democrat Ralph Northam by 8 points.
{snip chart}
For perspective, thats only the second time Gillespies led in a poll in recent weeks, and its the only result thats outside the margin of error to Gillespies benefit.
In other words, reading it quickly: Very bad news for Northam. ... One should not read polls quickly. In this case, theres a critical caveat. Instead of asking respondents who didnt indicate a choice between Northam and Gillespie who they preferred, those respondents were simply listed as dont know. The result is dont know ended up getting more than a quarter of the vote.
....
Scott Clement contributed to this report.
Philip Bump is a correspondent for The Post based in New York City. Follow @pbump
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Please read this before you freak out about that new poll in the Virginia governor's race (Original Post)
mahatmakanejeeves
Oct 2017
OP
Va Lefty
(6,252 posts)1. From "Blue Virginia"
"Northams internals supposedly have him up 6 points."
"Id also note that Hampton Us pre-primary poll was wildly off, showing Tom Perriello up 6 points on Ralph Northam on the Democratic side and Ed Gillespie up 17 points on Corey Stewart (with Frank Wagner actually a point ahead of Stewart!) on the Republican side. Not even close."
http://bluevirginia.us/2017/10/and-now-time-for-the-wild-outlier-poll-that-makes-absolutely-no-sense
Gothmog
(144,919 posts)2. I love this chart from the article cited in the OP
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/10/25/please-read-this-before-you-freak-out-about-that-new-poll-in-the-virginia-governors-race/?utm_term=.51da58cc93f0
Hamptons done this before, and its polling has been similarly questionable as a result.
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484
Before the 2016 presidential election, Hampton polled twice in a week. The first time, Trump led by 3 points literally the only poll that had him leading in the state at any point last year. The second poll, conducted right before the vote, had Clinton up 4. She won by about 5.
Maybe the vote shifted 7 points in a week and Hampton was the only pollster to notice it. Or maybe not.
Before the party primaries in the state earlier this year, Hampton had Gillespie winning by a mile and Northam losing. Gillespie ended up winning in a squeaker; Northam won easily. Particularly in an off-year primary featuring candidates with much lower name recognition than those running for president, all of those dont knows would have had an effect.
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484
Before the 2016 presidential election, Hampton polled twice in a week. The first time, Trump led by 3 points literally the only poll that had him leading in the state at any point last year. The second poll, conducted right before the vote, had Clinton up 4. She won by about 5.
Maybe the vote shifted 7 points in a week and Hampton was the only pollster to notice it. Or maybe not.
Before the party primaries in the state earlier this year, Hampton had Gillespie winning by a mile and Northam losing. Gillespie ended up winning in a squeaker; Northam won easily. Particularly in an off-year primary featuring candidates with much lower name recognition than those running for president, all of those dont knows would have had an effect.
Gothmog
(144,919 posts)3. 25% undecided is a high number
I found this to be also interesting https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/10/25/please-read-this-before-you-freak-out-about-that-new-poll-in-the-virginia-governors-race/?utm_term=.51da58cc93f0
One should not read polls quickly. In this case, theres a critical caveat. Instead of asking respondents who didnt indicate a choice between Northam and Gillespie who they preferred, those respondents were simply listed as dont know. The result is dont know ended up getting more than a quarter of the vote.
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484
Why does that matter? Because it means a quarter of the possible electorate which will weigh in on the race and would probably weigh in on behalf of the candidate who theyd tell the pollsters they were leaning toward isnt counted. Maybe Gillespies got a core of support but Northams got a ton of soft support, and 25 of those percentage points would go to him. Without asking, we dont know. So we have instead this weird three-way race.
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484
Why does that matter? Because it means a quarter of the possible electorate which will weigh in on the race and would probably weigh in on behalf of the candidate who theyd tell the pollsters they were leaning toward isnt counted. Maybe Gillespies got a core of support but Northams got a ton of soft support, and 25 of those percentage points would go to him. Without asking, we dont know. So we have instead this weird three-way race.
FSogol
(45,446 posts)4. Don't freak out, go vote, and get EVERYONE you know in VA to go vote too.
Turnout is super critical.
:demo: