Infectious-Disease Experts Think Washington State's Slow Reopening Will Mean Fewer Cases
On Wednesday, the total number of COVID-19 cases stood at 1,382,304, with deaths at 78,343. The U.S. is continuing its phased reopening, but states are rolling back restrictions at different rates — and their residents are out and about to widely varying degrees.
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How many new daily cases in Washington?
Even as it extended its stay-at-home orders through the end of the month, Washington state has begun a four-phase reopening plan that Gov. Jay Inslee’s administration is calling “Safe Start.” The state plans to remain in each phase for a minimum of three weeks. The first phase of Safe Start allows for some recreation and construction activity, along with auto sales and commercial pet walking. At the time of the survey, five counties with fewer than 75,000 residents and no new reported cases in the past three weeks were allowed to begin Phase 2, which allows the resumption of activity in restaurants, house cleaning services and hair and nail salons, among other businesses.
The experts were asked to forecast the average new cases per day in Washington for the first week of June. Their consensus estimate of 332 is in line with case counts near the peak of the outbreak in late March and early April, with an 80 percent chance that the actual daily average will fall between 158 and 644 cases.
Experts were also asked to estimate the average daily case count in the first week of June if all Washington counties were allowed to enter Phase 2 on May 16.2 They forecast an average of 554 new daily cases under such a plan — an increase of 67 percent over their estimate of cases under the current plan.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-experts-think-washington-states-slow-reopening-will-mean-fewer-cases/