Updated model shows Mary Burke with a slight lead over Walker (50.6 to 49.4)

[Ellipsis]

http://host.madison.com/news/local/writers/todd-milewski/updated-model-shows-mary-burke-with-a-slight-lead-over/article_bce271d0-54ac-11e4-bb94-979f9f60c278.html?comment_form=true

The result changed the forecast in the model UW-Madison doctoral candidate Brad Jones created to estimate the levels of support for Burke and Walker based on polling done in Wisconsin.

Jones' model shows Burke at 50.6 percent and Walker at 49.4 percent of the two-party vote, which doesn't include those who support a third-party candidate or aren't decided. (See the latest model at go.madison.com/govrace.)

Jones, whose time at UW-Madison includes teaching statistical inference and statistical computing courses, said 60 percent of the simulations in the model show Burke holding a lead as of today.

Before Wednesday's Marquette poll, the model showed Walker leading by 0.4 points.

The Marquette poll shows the candidates as tied, but Jones' model adjusts results in an effort to eliminate the systematic error that polling houses have shown in past elections. Marquette polls have shown a slight lean toward Republican candidates compared to the actual Wisconsin results in the 2010 gubernatorial election, the 2012 gubernatorial recall election and the 2012 presidential election.

[a kennedy]

1. Looks to me she could pull this thing off....

[Ellipsis]

2. Fridays debate should be fun

[ewagner]

3. Today

Mary is speaking at Noon today to the League of Wisconsin Municipalities Conference in Middleton.

A lot of local officials are pissed at Walker so Mary has a good chance to "seal the deal" with us local yokels...

[ginnyinWI]

4. Well he sure didn't have much to say for himself yesterday

Falling back on stories of individuals, changing the subject...these debates don't do him any good at all!