"Guv's race still even, as "likely voters" =/= ALL voters"

[midnight]

"Yes, the numbers that were part of the Marquette Law School poll that came out today in Wisconsin for the governor's race was shocking, and there is a reason why. Because it doesn't reflect reality. Marquette’s definition of a “likely voter” does not capture all of the voters that will go to the polls, which goes a long way toward explaining how a 46-45 Scott Walker lead in a poll of registered voters can turn into a 50-43 lead among “likely voters.”

"Why is there such an (absurd) disparity? Because the Marquette Poll thinks no one who says they aren’t 100% certain to vote isn’t a “likely voter.” The amount of people who responded that they were “Very Likely” to vote are 8.9% of the registered voters, and those that said they were “50-50” about voting are 4.9% of the voters. It is reasonable to assume a majority of this 13.8% will end up voting in the November elections, especially given the amount of attention that these races are being given. But the media lazily is running with the Marquette “ certain likely voter” screen as a snapshot of what things look like, and it’s simply not true.

Those “very likely” and “50-50” voters lean heavily toward Mary Burke. You’ve already gotten a hint at this with the difference in Party ID from the LV to RV poll shifting 5.5 points toward the Dems. But look at where the “will probably vote” types end up.

Very likely/ 50-50 voters

Burke 52.4, Walker 32.0"

http://jakehasablog.blogspot.com

[midnight]

1. Misconception about election polling has allowed media to use possibilities & opinion as fact.

"There is a misconception about election polling. It has allowed media to trumpet possibilities and opinions as fact even though the Wisconsin results are tied or swing back and forth among a dozen polling companies.

Nor is it mentioned how pollsters depend on the media for attention and even play to their special outlets. When Charles Franklin at Marquette University, who has a respected reputation within the industry, expressed amazement to Marquette students at how effectively Mary Burke had “closed the gap” with Scott Walker among both male and female likely voters, it was Franklin’s perceived gap in a narrowly drawn poll. As for “amazed,” that assumed she stood where his media partners wanted – so far behind that tying Walker was “amazing.” Perhaps, perhaps not.

These polls don’t trumpet the gubernatorial desires of all Wisconsin citizens, but selective opinion – people who said in about 1,000 phone calls they were voting and which way. That’s often right, but that’s quite different than the population as a whole, especially in a nonpresidential year when less than half the citizens tend to show up."


"Commentators absorbed in politics, like me, speak from interviews, outlook and experience. But we don’t confuse speculations with facts. Most of the public doesn’t get agitated as we do until they realize how much those in office can influence their lives. So what drives people to vote depends on many factors. Intense public interest in politics lags behind actual upset or economic harm. That’s why who shows up is hard to predict in these so-called low turnout elections and candidate groups try to herd people to the polls whether they are agitated or not. "









http://domsdomainpolitics.blogspot.com/2014/10/tied-polls-and-silly-js-editorials.html