WTF Wisconsin? Ron Johnson surges in latest Marquette poll.

[Still In Wisconsin]

Hillary is now up seven, which seems safe, but Senator Dumbass has moved into a statistical tie with Russ!

[vadermike]

1. Russ

Will still win Unless we start seeing Johnson leading I don't see how he wins Anything can happen tho

[meadowlark5]

2. I said this in another post about this - Kochs are probably bombarding the state with ads

They love their favorite lap dog Scottie. And they said all of their campaign money was going to senate and house races. So my guess is a barrage of negative ads about Feingold.

[Still In Wisconsin]

5. I'm not seeing them. However,

I'm in a relatively liberal part of the state so that doesn't mean they aren't running elsewhere.

[ewagner]

23. Fox 11 in Wausau market

Running Johnson ads and "Feingold Kills Babies" ads during football games...and news broadcasts.

Russ is running some pretty positive stuff but I can't tell if it's resonating

for what its worth...

That's a Marquette Poll which is consistently right wing propaganda

[Loki Liesmith]

3. Did you remember to average the polls?

[Still In Wisconsin]

12. If I averaged the three taken this month, the result would be

Johnson +0.33 i.e. a tie.

That does factor in a C-rated poll (Loras College) that has Johnson +5. Removing that one you get Feingold +2.5- in other words, a lead within MOE.

[Loki Liesmith]

14. There is a moving average posted here

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-wisconsin-senate-johnson-vs-feingold

Moving average is more or less a constant Feingold lead.

[Chasstev365]

4. OMG

Johnson is such a tool! (Pun intended)

[MFM008]

6. just one poll

need more.

[Still In Wisconsin]

8. There have been two other polls this month (over past 7 days)

One has Johnson up five- but that one's C-rated (Loras College)

The other (CBS NEWS) also shows a statistical tie.

I'm afraid we (Wisconsinites) really are collectively this dumb. How else do you explain electing a shitstain like Scott Walker Governor three times in four years, and Ron Johnson being even remotely close to Russ Feingold? Sure, the money differential is a big part of it, but doesn't explain it all.

[Loki Liesmith]

11. Statistical ties don't exist

no such thing. ever. Unless the two are exactly equal.

The trend is your friend.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-wisconsin-senate-johnson-vs-feingold

[Still In Wisconsin]

15. Yeah, you're right.

"Feingold leads within MOE" would be a better statement regarding the two polls that have decent ratings.

[LakeArenal]

16. Well, I am still in Wisconsin as well,

every one I know is voting for Russ. Everyone I know never answers a phone when the number is unrecognizable. My phone rings lots and lots. So I know many of us are not being "polled" and we are all likely voters. I am a bit of a "conspiracyist " and I believe Wisconsin has been completely corrupted by Walker. I never call us collectively dumb however.

[Still In Wisconsin]

17. I used to always resist that label, too.

I would always say "No, it's the Koch money, it was an off-year election, etc. etc. etc." Maybe that's still true...



I DO know things have changed though. I work for the state (UW faculty) and the hostility we get from average citizens is palpable. Scott Walker is an incompetent leader and obviously crashed and burned in the national spotlight, but he sure is good at that "divide and conquer" thing. I wouldn't have thought he'd be able to live on that one trick for so long, but he has.

[LakeArenal]

18. The Democratic Party seems to run pretty weak candidates.

Russ is as strong as we have. If he loses, maybe I will accept your label. Strictly speaking, I always resist labels.
Divide and conquer is surely Walker's " thing ". We are totally gerrymander here as well. When we go national we go blue. So it just doesn't make sense that in state politics we are "collectively dumb" and red always win.

[Still In Wisconsin]

19. Yeah we've always been a different animal haven't we.

We elect Tammy Baldwin, and then two years later, Ron Johnson. We had Kasten and Proxmire in the senate at the same time. We have gone for every Dem since Dukakis, inclusive, in Presidential elections. Maybe it is what you say, weak candidates. I am still surprised Barrett didn't do better. I think he's a good guy.

[LakeArenal]

20. Well apparently good guys finish last in Wisconsin.

That's abundantly clear. Also I think Wisconsin was the Koch's first test facility. We were fairly duped with Walker. He never mentioned dismantling unions or that he would make war on public education. Doyle was pretty unpopular at the time. By the time we found out about him, he was fully ingrained, gerrymandering fell in their lap. Republicans had spent years supporting judicial candidates that would tow the Koch line.

Just as an aside: When we realized what was happening, I had recently had a hip replacement (I was the youngest my dr. had ever had). I got my crutches, had someone drop me at the capital and I protested with the rest. I had a sign, "People Have Died Fighting For Unions. It was cold and I marched. I was there when Palin came.. I went right in Glen Grothman's face and called him the lazy slob that he had recently called me and others who had lost our jobs.(He ran away like the weasel he is) Later I worked at my local recall office. Donated with very little money for heat and it was cold. But that was nothing compared to those who were on street corners with recall petitions in 20 below temps. So that's why when someone calls us lazy voters and that we get what Wis. voted for like we deserve it.. It puts me out. Then after all our hard work... Barrett was put up for the recall election.. Yes, nice guy, but no charisma, no spark. Already having lost to Walker, not the most inspiring candidate.

I have enjoyed my convo with you.

[The_Casual_Observer]

7. That guy isn't going to win.

[Still In Wisconsin]

9. In the end, I think you will be proven right.

I can't see Russ losing to Dumbass again. But it shouldn't even be close!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

10. (sorry, wrong Johnson) . . . . . . . nt

[still_one]

13. Keep in mind that Johnson isn't "surging", Russ has been ahead in most of those

polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html

and with Hillary leading, that all is good for Russ. If we have a good turnout, and Hillary wins, I have every expectation that Russ will also

[dembotoz]

21. for all the reports of ro jo having ad money pulled i sure as hell see a lot of em

milw market

and they seem to be working

[a kennedy]

22. I've seen a lot here in Western Wisconsin, La Crosse area.

More Russ lawn signs then RoJo, but lots of advertisements.

[jodymarie aimee]

24. the baby ads

show the real baby and practically pull the limbs off... pretty heavy duty stuff for the Catholic 80 year olds. It works. You should see some of the LTEs here by old guys. "I am a Catholic and I want us all to go to Heaven"...then proceeds to tell the reader HRC is Satan.

And all these loons "stand with Walker".

[Kashkakat v.2.0]

25. WHERE ARE THE FEINGOLD ADS - been hearing lots of rj lately but no RF -why??? They better not be

taking our money again and spending it in other states and other races -exactly what happened with all that $$$ to support WI uprising a few yrs back.

Hate those R ads - they always have that same woman with a snotty voice that sounds like the girl-bully in junior high that would go around tormenting other girls with less power/status. Not a pleasant association at all. I suppose it appeals to men and women who were themselves girl bullies in junior high (who then went on to become republicans)

[Still In Wisconsin]

27. That does appear to be what's happening.

A couple weeks back the DNC decided WI looked safe and cancelled some but not all of their planned ad buys for Russ.

[Kashkakat v.2.0]

28. I knew it! So wtf - why then did we hear weeks ago that Russ has so much more $$$ than his

opponent, and more importantly - how do we get it back?????????

I thought I was donating to Russ' campaign!!!!

[Still In Wisconsin]

29. If you want to help Russ, donate DIRECTLY to Russ.

If you leave it up to the DSCC, they will use your money in Nevada, Missouri, New Hampshire... wherever.

[Kashkakat v.2.0]

30. I dunno - will they use it to run ads? Hearing plenty of rj ads even on the MIC but nothing from

Russ - what's up with that????

Im getting a sinking feeling similar to a few months back when I saw all the Rebecca Bradley ads plastered all over - even here on DU - but nothing, zilch, nada from Kloppenburg.

Its too bad that our system now requires advertising and lots of it but that's the reality. I remember those ads from Russ' first run for senate - the ones with his garage in Middleton and the map of Wisconsin on the back of his hand. Very effective!

[beachbum bob]

26. Koch brothers throwing millions at feingold

Literally millions and millions...I hope in vain