EKOS poll: Stunning NDP surge has all three parties in a dead heat

[Joe Shlabotnik]

The federal horserace has turned into a remarkable three-way tie, driven by a surge in support for the New Democrats. Just three points now separate the NDP, the Conservatives and the Liberals, an echo of the results we saw about two years ago, when all three parties were within five points of each other.The story here appears to be one of NDP success, rather than one of a decline in their rivals’ fortunes. The NDP has jumped five percentage points over the last week, while the Conservatives and Liberals are both down just slightly from their rolling average over the past few weeks.

There are clear echoes here of last week’s shocking upset in the Alberta election, but it would be a mistake to see the NDP’s rise as merely a bounce effect from Alberta. In fact, the past four months have shown a clear pattern of growing support for the New Democrats, lifting them up from 18 points in early February to 29 points today.

Two trends appear to be driving NDP success. The first is the party’s dramatic capture of the university-educated vote, which was critical to the Alberta NDP’s historic victory last week. It’s not clear if this is a ‘strategic’ response from the promiscuous progressive segment of the electorate (people who are more focused on defeating Stephen Harper than they are on electing any particular party) or just the result of rising resentment of the Harper government’s perceived anti-intellectualism.

The second factor is the NDP taking a decisive lead in what was a logjammed Quebec race. The NDP is also newly competitive in Ontario, which is now a three-way race.

More plus lots of graphs at: http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/14/the-ekos-poll-stunning-ndp-surge-puts-all-three-parties-in-a-dead-heat/




Edit to add:
Support is up high in British Columbia for federal NDP: survey

An online survey conducted by Vancouver-based polling company Insights West suggests that if a federal election were to be held tomorrow, British Columbians would cast more ballots for the New Democratic Party (NDP) over the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party.

The results come just over a week after the NDP’s Rachel Notley won a majority government in neighbouring Alberta, ending the 44-year governance of the Progressive Conservative Party in the province.

The poll was completed by 814 adult British Columbians and shows that 35 per cent would vote for the NDP, 29 per cent would vote for the ruling Conservatives, 25 per cent for the Liberals and 10 per cent for the Green Party.

In Metro Vancouver, the NDP is tied at 32 per cent with the Conservatives. However on Vancouver Island, support is at 47 per cent for the NDP.

more at: http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/05/poll-support-high-british-columbia-federal-ndp/

[Fred Sanders]

1. The NDP is socialist, yes, but it is also intellectual, middle class focused, pro-science, pro all the issues that matter.

And pragmatic....think Greek Syriza.

Everything the newly panicked anti-intellectual conservatives are not....and Canada is not ruled by the corporate media.

[mndemsocialist]

2. Overtaking the Liberals?

From an American observer:

Is the Justin halo wearing off? Is he being seen by more and more Canadians as a lightweight, and thus a shift to NDP?

BUT wouldn't a number of Liberals rather vote Conservative than NDP?

[Joe Shlabotnik]

3. Yep it could happen,

not all conservatives are hillbilly tea party-ers. There are many Bay Street types who like the Liberal's social agenda but when threatened with change, will stand by their corporate interests before allowing a party (ie NDP), who is not beholden to the institutional elite gain power, they could and have voted for the Liberals when they thought it was the winning ticket. PM Paul Martin was also a 1%er of the highest order (like the Trudeau family), and beholden to the banks; he got the whole austerity ball rolling in Canada. I imagine there is a lot of anxiety right now about the possibility of a government being elected that no-one has tentacles imbedded within.

At the same time there are some Libertarian conservatives who have turned their back on Harper over his latest spying bill, and right now the NDP (and Greens) are looking like the only champions for privacy rights. Trudeau blew that assignment.