Tory MP Douglas Carswell defects to Ukip

[muriel_volestrangler]

Conservative MP Douglas Carswell has announced he is defecting from the Conservatives to Ukip – forcing a byelection.

He said he was resigning from parliament and standing for Ukip at a byelection in his Essex seat of Clacton.

Carswell had a majority of 12,068 at the last general election.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/28/douglas-carswell-ukip-defects-tory-mp-byelection

Interesting - that's a healthy majority. Could be people who will always vote Tory, of course, or right wingers who might go UKIP with him.

Labour was 2nd in 2010 - a new constituency: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29 . When it was part of Harwich, Labour held it from 1997-2005, but Tory apart from that. I'd love to see the RW vote split enough to let Labour in, but I suspect that's over-optimistic.

[non sociopath skin]

1. Carswell ... Carswell ... now where have I heard that name before?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5431746/MPs-expenses-Douglas-Carswell-claimed-700-in-expenses-for-love-seat.html

He and the Hamiltons will make perfect bedfellows.

The Skin

[T_i_B]

2. Not entirely surprised by this

Carswell always did seem more of a UKIPer then a Tory, with his continual arguments about EU withdrawal.

I do know a few people in that area (was last down there in November for a dinner party in Frinton-on-Sea). It's a constituency that's very receptive to the UKIP message and he is well regarded as a local MP, so I can see quite a lot of people going with him.

[non sociopath skin]

3. So if the first ever UKIP MP turns out to be an ex-Tory MP ...

... I wonder how that will play with the "Plague On All Your Houses" voters.

The Skin

[LeftishBrit]

6. Not strictly the first...

Crazy Bob Spink was briefly a member of UKIP in 2008, having moved from Tory to Independent to UKIP, and then back to Independent-but-supporting-UKIP.

Best known perhaps for the vile election advert that he used when still a Tory: "What bit of 'send them back' don't you understand Mr Blair?"

[non sociopath skin]

4. Some interesting speculation on HuffPost

I suspect a lot depends on how Cameron handles it.

And imagine Farage trying to herd this lot ...

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/28/douglas-carswell-ukip-tories_n_5728076.html

The Skin

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. Mad Nad and Jacob Really Smug - is it possible to be a normal person and in UKIP too?

For all their 'men of the people' talk, they consistently come across as the weirdos.

[LeftishBrit]

7. Not to mention my fave MEP, Daniel 'The NHS is a 60-Year Mistake' Hannan

and Philip Davies, chip of the old English Democrat block, and self-described libertarian who wants more people in prison!

[T_i_B]

8. Depressing article about the Clacton by-election

http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/ukip-clacton-jaywick-douglass-carswell-810

[T_i_B]

9. UKIP gains first elected MP with Clacton win

Sad but not surprising news about Clacton. Close shave in Heywood and Middleton as well.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29549414

The UK Independence Party has gained its first elected MP, with Douglas Carswell taking the seat of Clacton by 12,404 votes.

Mr Carswell, who defected from the Conservatives, knocked his old party - which enjoyed a 12,068 majority at the 2010 election - into second place.

He then told UKIP supporters there was "nothing that we cannot achieve".

In the night's other by-election, Labour held on to Heywood and Middleton but UKIP slashed its majority to 617.

[LeftishBrit]

14. Never thought I'd live to see the day...

when I'd be disappointed to learn that the Tories had lost a by-election, but AAAAAARRRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHH!

I LOATHE Carswell and his stupid party.

I note that the turnout was 36% in Heywood & Middleton, and just over 51% in Clacton. Relatively low turnouts do favour UKIP. Let's hope that more of the sane turn out to vote in the General Election.




ETA: sorry about all those self-deleted repeat posts; the posting function went nuts.

[T_i_B]

15. Could see it wasn't going to go for the Tories...

...when I saw the Tory candidates daughter imploring Labour supporters to vote tactically for her father on Farcebook.

I'm not nearly as knowledgeable about Heywood & Middleton, but that was a close shave. Looks like Tory & Lib Dem votes collapsed with UKIP as the main beneficiary.

[Drew Peacock]

16. Heywood & Middleton is the story here.

UKIP have made a very safe Labour seat into a marginal here and could realistically have won it.

All who want a Labour win in 2015 should be very very concerned about this imo.

Many working class people in the North of England simply do not identify with the Westminster Labour Party anymore.

[T_i_B]

17. People don't identify with any of the mainstream parties

And that gives nationalist parties such as UKIP and the SNP a massive opportunity.

Labour's percentage of the vote held up in Heywood & Middleton, whereas the Tory and Lib Dem vote collapsed. However, you have to consider how many people then voted Labour just to keep UKIP out.

[Drew Peacock]

18. Yes there is that, Lab %ov was actually slightly up

You are right about people not identifying with the main parties now.

I think that is because there is no meaningful difference between them on policy now, only in rhetoric.

And also because the public faces of the parties, the "leaders" for want of a better word, are all pretty much the same too.

I was expecting a small Labour majority next year, but now I'm not so sure.

[muriel_volestrangler]

19. The Tories and UKIP could be like Labour and SDP-Liberal alliance in 1983

enough of a split in the vote to give the other side a notable boost. I think that if Cameron doesn't come to some form of agreement with Farage, this will cause him trouble. While it looks like UKIP can take some votes from Labour, I think it also shows they'll take more from the Tories, in almost all cases.

[Drew Peacock]

20. Agreed, but it appears that, increasingly, UKIP are taking Labour votes

and in their heartlands too.

This is worrying for Labour MPs, enough so that some are turning on Miliband

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11141992/Labour-MPs-urge-Alan-Johnson-to-challenge-for-leader-amid-growing-disgruntlement-with-Ed-Miliband.html

I suspect that UKIP are going to do better next year than has been forecast.

Could they hold the balance of power? Outside chance I reckon.

[muriel_volestrangler]

21. One point I've just seen on another forum - Labour is suffering in Scotland

In 2010, Labour had 42% of the vote for 41 seats, SNP 20% for 6 (Lib Dems got 11 from 19% - their support is concentrated in rural constituencies). Now, SNP are at 42%, and Labour 29% in Scotland. A swing like that could mean Labour lose 30 seats to the SNP, I reckon. It's possible that the SNP will end up the 3rd largest party, in seats, in 2015, since the Lib Dems are collapsing.

Imagine the negotiations if Labour is the largest party, but still a minority.

[Drew Peacock]

22. Yep

How about a Lab-Con coalition, to keep the rest out?

[T_i_B]

23. This one is interesting

If you can make it past the worthy praise of Cameron, Peter Oborne is accusing a number of Tory politicians of being UKIP fifth columnists. And Dan Hannan is still refusing to endorse the Tory candidate for Rochester.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11164718/Nigel-Farages-Tory-fifth-columnists-are-helping-no-one-but-Ed-Miliband.html

At some point or other, The Tories will have to start fighting back against UKIP.