When do Democrats regain control of the US Senate? 2020,2022,or 2024?

[nkpolitics1212]

Last edited Mon Dec 24, 2018, 05:58 PM - Edit history (1)

In 2020, Democrats guide to regaining control of the US Senate is holding onto every Democratic held seat up in 2020 except AL(Jones-D) and pick up AZ special(McSally-R),CO(Gardner-R),NC(Tillis-R) plus any 2 of the 3- GA(Perdue-R), IA(Ernst-R),and ME(Collins-R). Democrats will pick up CO,AZ special,and NC- 49D 51R. Democrats will also lose OH(Brown-D) if Brown-D becomes VP with President Elect O'Rourke-D. 48D 52R
In 2022, Democrats guide to regaining control of the US Senate if they occupy the White House is hold onto every Democratic held seat up in 2022 except AZ(Whoever defeats McSally-R in 2020-D?) and pick up NC(OPEN Burr-R),WI(OPEN Johnson-R) and PA(Toomey-R) and WI(Johnson-R). Democrats will pick up PA and WI.- 49D 51R.
In 2024, Democrats guide to regaining control of the US Senate is holding onto every Democratic held seat up in 2024 including AZ(Sinema-D),MI(Stabenow-D),MT(Tester-D),NV(Rosen-D), and WV(Manchin-D) and pick up FL(Scott-R) and TX(Cruz-R) or OH(Whoever DeWine-R appoints to succeed Brown-D).

[Quemado]

1. The 2020 election is 22 months away

A lot can happen between now and November 2020, let alone 2022 or 2024. That being said, I would say the chances are a little better than 50/50 that your scenario of 49D 51R materializes.

If we assume:

a) The economy goes into recession in 2019 or 2020; and
b) The Republican party suffers something cataclysmic, like a Trump impeachment, indictments of high ranking politicians, uncovering of a conspiracy to defraud the U.S., etc.

Then, the chances are improving to a 50D 50R scene in the Senate if the Democratic challenger to Susan Collins of ME wins that election.

[nkpolitics1212]

2. Collins(R-ME) is vulnerable but she can narrowly win re-election.

The likely Democratic nominee for the 2020 ME US Senate Election is going to be Adam Cote-D.- The 2nd place finisher in the 2018 Democratic Primary for ME Governor.