Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumIf Hillary wins Iowa, Bernie's Toast
Big Tent Democrat (aka Armando at Daily Kos and Twitter) thinks Bernie's momentum is gone, gone, gone unless he wins Iowa, which BTD does not think will happen. I agree. As many Hillary supporters point out, Bernie just doesn't have the momentum anywhere but New Hampshire. And New Hampshire ain't gonna get him the White House!
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2016/1/3/175621/7647/Election16/2016-the-State-of-Play
Clinton's lead in Iowa over Sanders is currently 52-37. Personally I think any Clinton win in Iowa, even by a point, effectively ends the race. One of the reasons is that the expectation is Sanders is going to win New Hampshire, With that expectation, Sanders won't have much of a chance to change the dynamics in the race. The next 2 contests after NH are South Carolina and Nevada, where PC will be the dominant voter groups. After that you move to Super Tuesday on March 1 and that will probably close all drama.
Sanders has raised an amazing amount of money (and so has Clinton over 112 million so far) so he'll be in it to the convention, but he'll have no chance for the nomination unless things change before Super Tuesday.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Bur he'll still win DU.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)DU is a speck on the microcosm of the voting universe. Sometimes I think we need to be reminded of that.
Cary
(11,746 posts)Good grief.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)It's just too easy to get sucked in when one has a smart phone.
But I hear you.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)I turn it off sometimes so I won't live in my head.
Cary
(11,746 posts)And too easily sucked in.
But thanks for being an island of sanity here.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Doesn't count in the real world. In this case anyway.
RandySF
(58,447 posts)But after that, he pretty much has nowhere else to go. There's no potential win big enough to keep him in the hunt.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)Sorry, Bernie, but you are doomed.
He'll be 'bernt toast,' so to speak.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)It does not necessarily deliver the Oval office.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)The point is, Bernie can win NH, which is probably the only state's primary he will win, and it won't get him anywhere near the White House.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)If he looses in Iowa and wins in New Hampshire, will he call himself the comeback kid?
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)Because most people expect him to win NH, so it won't really give him a Comeback Kid boost. It won't show anyone that he can win where it's least expected.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)The election against an incumbent, his last name happened to be Clinton also. This was the last time a candidate who lost both Iowa and NH also.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)But do you honestly think Bernie has the political skills of Bill Clinton? No fucking way.
shenmue
(38,506 posts)okasha
(11,573 posts)Hillary's been fighting the Republicans since she announced, not fellow Democrats (even if they're faux Democrats. ) It's pretty obvious that's what Democratic voters want and why she will win.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,220 posts)don't think it changes the dynamics of the race, but much like Nader, I think the BS camp wants to build such resentment against the DNC that it tarnishes any victory by HRC. I'll admit that I was just indifferent to BS before, but at this point, I actually hate him. That may sound strong, but I can't help how I feel. It's become increasingly apparent that he & some of his acolytes are out to take down the party.
SunSeeker
(51,504 posts)The invective you hear from many Bernie supporters directed at the DNC, and the Democratic Party in general, appears at least as harsh as what you hear from Republicans.
Cha
(296,777 posts)Poor nader.. he tried everything in his barrel and the only thing he accomplished was getting bush2 selected.. and the ensuing tragic 8 years.
Happy New Year, Tarheel!
SunSeeker
(51,504 posts)FarPoint
(12,276 posts)Bernie Sanders himself is very respectful of Hillary. The blogger- gang...not so much.
Gothmog
(144,890 posts)I am having difficulty seeing how two 90+% white states are meaningful for the Democratic primary as does Nate Silver http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/
But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you cant win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.
I think that Clinton should win Iowa due to a superior ground game and the lack of a ground game by the Sanders campaign. However, neither Iowa nor NH represent the demographic base of the Democratic Party
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)Bernie is not going to be the Democratic presidential nominee. He was never going to be the nominee. He's either toast after IA or toast after SC. The Revolution will have to be postponed.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)...highly unlikely as that may be...and when Super Tuesday rolls around Sanders is finished, done, over and out.
Coolest Ranger
(2,034 posts)couple of states but he not winning down here in the south. I don't care how much his supporters bash us on this site. She has my vote and I will say by the end of March she'll have this all locked up.