If Hillary wins Iowa, Bernie's Toast

[charlyvi]

Big Tent Democrat (aka Armando at Daily Kos and Twitter) thinks Bernie's momentum is gone, gone, gone unless he wins Iowa, which BTD does not think will happen. I agree. As many Hillary supporters point out, Bernie just doesn't have the momentum anywhere but New Hampshire. And New Hampshire ain't gonna get him the White House!

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2016/1/3/175621/7647/Election16/2016-the-State-of-Play

Clinton's lead in Iowa over Sanders is currently 52-37. Personally I think any Clinton win in Iowa, even by a point, effectively ends the race. One of the reasons is that the expectation is Sanders is going to win New Hampshire, With that expectation, Sanders won't have much of a chance to change the dynamics in the race. The next 2 contests after NH are South Carolina and Nevada, where PC will be the dominant voter groups. After that you move to Super Tuesday on March 1 and that will probably close all drama.

Sanders has raised an amazing amount of money (and so has Clinton over 112 million so far) so he'll be in it to the convention, but he'll have no chance for the nomination unless things change before Super Tuesday.

[Dawson Leery]

1. kick

[enid602]

2. du

Bur he'll still win DU.

[charlyvi]

4. OK, but......

DU is a speck on the microcosm of the voting universe. Sometimes I think we need to be reminded of that.

[Cary]

5. Yeah, I've been stuck in their vortex all day

Good grief.

[charlyvi]

9. Then you need to get a life. N/T

[Cary]

15. I have one.

It's just too easy to get sucked in when one has a smart phone.

But I hear you.

[charlyvi]

16. I have a smart phone.

I turn it off sometimes so I won't live in my head.

[Cary]

20. Alas, I am addicted

And too easily sucked in.

But thanks for being an island of sanity here.

[workinclasszero]

18. Luckily DU

Doesn't count in the real world. In this case anyway.

[RandySF]

3. I think he can make case for staying in if he wins NH

But after that, he pretty much has nowhere else to go. There's no potential win big enough to keep him in the hunt.

[charlyvi]

6. After NH, Super Tuesday is his death knell.

Sorry, Bernie, but you are doomed.

[enid602]

14. bernt

He'll be 'bernt toast,' so to speak.

[charlyvi]

17. OMG! Bwahaha! n/t

[Agnosticsherbet]

7. Hillary won New Hampshire in 2008,

It does not necessarily deliver the Oval office.

[charlyvi]

10. Who says it does?

The point is, Bernie can win NH, which is probably the only state's primary he will win, and it won't get him anywhere near the White House.

[Agnosticsherbet]

12. I question whether he has the organization to win the primary.

If he looses in Iowa and wins in New Hampshire, will he call himself the comeback kid?

[charlyvi]

13. I don't think so.

Because most people expect him to win NH, so it won't really give him a Comeback Kid boost. It won't show anyone that he can win where it's least expected.

[Thinkingabout]

8. In 1992 a candidate lost both Iowa and NH, went on to win

The election against an incumbent, his last name happened to be Clinton also. This was the last time a candidate who lost both Iowa and NH also.

[charlyvi]

11. Yes.

But do you honestly think Bernie has the political skills of Bill Clinton? No fucking way.

[shenmue]

19. Hurrah!

[okasha]

21. Can't happen a minute too soon.

Hillary's been fighting the Republicans since she announced, not fellow Democrats (even if they're faux Democrats. ) It's pretty obvious that's what Democratic voters want and why she will win.

[Tarheel_Dem]

22. Which is the reason for the relentless attacks on the DNC. It's a full blown "strategy" now. I....

don't think it changes the dynamics of the race, but much like Nader, I think the BS camp wants to build such resentment against the DNC that it tarnishes any victory by HRC. I'll admit that I was just indifferent to BS before, but at this point, I actually hate him. That may sound strong, but I can't help how I feel. It's become increasingly apparent that he & some of his acolytes are out to take down the party.

[SunSeeker]

24. You're right.

The invective you hear from many Bernie supporters directed at the DNC, and the Democratic Party in general, appears at least as harsh as what you hear from Republicans.

[Cha]

25. +1! Anything to make themselves feel better.. it won't change the reality, though.

Poor nader.. he tried everything in his barrel and the only thing he accomplished was getting bush2 selected.. and the ensuing tragic 8 years.

Happy New Year, Tarheel!

[SunSeeker]

23. K & R

[FarPoint]

26. I'm so ready for this...

Bernie Sanders himself is very respectful of Hillary. The blogger- gang...not so much.

[Gothmog]

27. Even if Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will not be the nominee

I am having difficulty seeing how two 90+% white states are meaningful for the Democratic primary as does Nate Silver http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasn’t made any inroads with non-white voters — in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obama’s toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsos’s weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clinton’s edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19....

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you can’t win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

I think that Clinton should win Iowa due to a superior ground game and the lack of a ground game by the Sanders campaign. However, neither Iowa nor NH represent the demographic base of the Democratic Party

[charlyvi]

28. I agree wholeheartedly!

Bernie is not going to be the Democratic presidential nominee. He was never going to be the nominee. He's either toast after IA or toast after SC. The Revolution will have to be postponed.

[workinclasszero]

29. Yup, he could win both states

...highly unlikely as that may be...and when Super Tuesday rolls around Sanders is finished, done, over and out.

[Coolest Ranger]

30. He might win the first

couple of states but he not winning down here in the south. I don't care how much his supporters bash us on this site. She has my vote and I will say by the end of March she'll have this all locked up.