Hillary Clinton’s Lead Over Bernie Sanders Widens

[BlueMTexpat]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/clintons-lead-over-sanders-widens-1453039203

This poll has been posted already but this is a different article. (I think.)

Hillary Clinton has widened her lead to 25 percentage points in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

The former secretary of state leads Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders 59% to 34%, a slightly larger margin than the 19-point gap in December.

The new national poll comes as surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire show the race tightening in the states that play host to the first two nominating contests. While losses there would be a setback for Mrs. Clinton, the new Journal/NBC News survey suggests that she would retain strong advantages in the later primaries. Mrs. Clinton owes her durable lead nationally to her strength with key subgroups in the Democratic primary electorate, including nonwhite, older and moderate-to-conservative primary voters.

The race looks much different in Iowa and New Hampshire. Aggregates of recent polls show the contests to be close in both states, with Mrs. Clinton edging Mr. Sanders in Iowa and the Vermont senator claiming a lead in neighboring New Hampshire.

I have a feeling that IA and NH, even though tight, will look better for HRC after her appearances on the Sunday shows and tonight's debate. Hope that feeling will be confirmed!

[Thinkingabout]

1. It will be tight with both Hillary and Sanders splitting delegates of about 20 some each.

[stonecutter357]

2. K&R!

[Peregrine Took]

3. National polls are irrelevant. n/t

[leftofcool]

5. This is the Hillary group.

[Cha]

11. No they're not. If BS were 25% ahead.. it would be shouted from the rooftops.

But, that's not happening.

[BlueMTexpat]

12. Chuckle. Spot on, Cha! eom

[Cha]

15. They need a splash of

cold water.

Blue

[BlueMTexpat]

17. After some of their posts,

I need a stiff drink, LOL.

[Hortensis]

13. True, and this was was useful for making me feel good. :)

[Cha]

16. That too!

Hortensis

[yallerdawg]

4. It's one thing to pick a candidate on the phone.

It's another to actually go down and put in the time - hours usually - to caucus.

Many pundits and reporters seem to be suggesting Hillary will easily take Iowa.

Which would impact NH. Which will have no impact anywhere else.

"Beware the Ides of March" said the soothsayer!

[leftofcool]

6. She will easily take Iowa and then will have the mojo to take NH

[William769]

7. Kick & highly recommended!

[FloridaBlues]

8. I totally agree she will win those 2 early states!

Even if by 2-3 points a win is a win !

[BlueMTexpat]

14. I am quite optimistic.

Especially because she is taking NOTHING for granted there and she, her campaign, her supporters, and all the VERY hard-working volunteers who are on the ground are all working their hearts out for her.

I also believe that it is very interesting to see that while we hear so often that she does not appeal to the "Millennials" as much as Bernie does, so many of the photos of her campaign - especially in IA - show LOTS of enthusiastic young ones hard at work.

If all the Millennials who have been inspired by our three great candidates actually come out to vote in this election, that alone will have been worth it.

[Squinch]

9. Kick

[Tarheel_Dem]

10. I wouldn't worry much about IA & NH, because if they do the unthinkable, we'll fix it on Super....

Tuesday. Bet on it!

[Hortensis]

18. That's my guess, and comfort. :) Nate Silver points out

"Put another way, Iowa and New Hampshire aren’t representative of the more diverse electorates that Democrats will turn out elsewhere. It just so happens that the idiosyncrasies of the first two states match Sanders’s strengths and Clinton’s relative weaknesses."

In 2008 NH was 54% white liberal and IA 50% -- Sanders' only strong demographic. And,

"Otherwise, just as was the case throughout the 2008 campaign, the media will misconstrue voting patterns that occur because of demographics and attribute them to “momentum” instead."

I was surprised to learn that Georgia was 20% white liberal. In our county it's probably more like 1% judging from the "here's one now" looks we get from the poll workers. Florida, where we are now, is 34% white liberal, a full third -- actually also a bit of a surprise. We have to get around more.

South Carolina and Nevada 19% and 29% WL respectively.