Poll: Clinton has a better shot at beating Trump than Sanders

[dlwickham]

Hillary Clinton would have a better shot at beating Donald Trump in the general election than would Bernie Sanders, according to the results of the latest national Monmouth University poll released Tuesday surveying Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.

Sanders has cut into Clinton's advantage among nearly every voting bloc over the last month, but the former secretary of state still leads by double digits, albeit with an advantage less than half of a month ago.

Slightly more than half—52 percent—said they backed Clinton, while 37 percent opted for Sanders, the first time that her advantage has been less than 20 points. In the university's December survey, Clinton held a substantially larger 33-point advantage over Sanders—59 percent to 26 percent. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley polled well within the margin of error, at 2 percent.

Asked who would have a better shot against Trump, 44 percent said Clinton would, while only 16 percent said the Vermont senator would have more of a chance. Meanwhile, 35 percent said they would have about an equal opportunity. In the case of Ted Cruz, 39 percent said Clinton would do better, compared to 17 percent for Sanders and 37 percent for both. Asked who would do better against Marco Rubio, 39 percent said Clinton would, 37 percent said they would have an equal shot and just 17 percent said Sanders would.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/poll-hillary-clinton-trump-bernie-sanders-217963#ixzz3xkJJ31af

[DURHAM D]

1. This can't be true because

Michael Moore just said the opposite on my tv.

[Tommy2Tone]

3. Yea Moore

He acts all one of the you and then goes and buys a 20 million dollar mansion.

[Dems2002]

8. Do you understand what this poll actually is?

This is a poll of Democrats. It asks Democrats who they believe would have a better chance against Trump. So the Democrats guess. Most picked Hillary.

Other polls include a head to head match up and ask Democrats, Independents, DTS's and Republicans who they would personally vote for. These are the polls we have been seeing that show Bernie beating Trump by a wider margin than Hillary.

The reason for this discrepancy? The DNC and Corporate Dems have been telling us for years that only a corporate/moderate democrat can get elected. A lot of us believe this. But just because we believe it that doesn't make it so.

[jmowreader]

17. Do you understand what sarcasm actually is?

[Tommy2Tone]

2. Nightly news only shows things that look bad for Clinton

I have said it before and I will say it again. If Sander somehow wins the nomination we Dems will get routed in 2016. Just wait until the GOP quits hammering Clinton and turns to Sanders. Thing George McGovern.

[DURHAM D]

5. and Walter Mondale

[Treant]

7. Adlai Stevenson

...I'm a historical purist, although I don't think Bernie would run a second time.

[napi21]

4. I've stopped paying much attention to polls these days.

All th talking heads said that "polls this early don't mean anything". Now we're two weeks from actual pprimaries, and the polls are swinging so radically, none of them make sense.

I think I can easily wait for the caucuses to see what the truth is, at least in Iowa.

[DLnyc]

6. Headline should say "Poll shows Democrats think Hillary would do better than Bernie vs Trump"

Last edited Fri Jan 22, 2016, 08:43 PM - Edit history (1)

The poll only looked at Democrats and it asked them who they thought would win if those were the choices. They could also ask those Democrats who they thought would win the Superbowl, but to represent that as meaning that the poll showed Clinton (or Arizona) has a better chance of winning is a bit of a stretch. It merely shows that the Democrats they polled don't have super-accurate perceptions about which way the general electorate currently leans given such a hypothetical match-up. Or perhaps that they have some special foreknowledge about how that electorate will change in the future, I don't know. At any rate, it is just a poll asking Democrats feelings, not an actual poll of voter preferences.

Polls I've seen actually show that, in recent head-to-head matches among all voters nationwide (which is not what this poll is), Bernie does significantly better against Trump than Hillary does.

For example (from PollingReport.com):

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by Hart Research Associates (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R). Jan. 9-13, 2016. N=800 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.5.
Hillary: 51 Trump: 41
Bernie: 54 Trump: 39

and

Quinnipiac University. Dec. 16-20, 2015. N=1,140 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 2.9.
Hillary: 47 Trump: 40
Bernie: 51 Trump: 38

[Cha]

13. Don't come into our Hillary Group pushing BS.. bernie's not going to be the nominee. i don't go

in to the BS group and post polls on Hillary.

Respect the boundaries.

[DLnyc]

15. Okay, my bad

I just saw the OP on the Greatest Page. I didn't notice until later that it was from the Hillary Group.

[Coolest Ranger]

9. The Bernie supporters

seem to love to manipulate polls and then scream at the top of their lungs that this poll says this where as in the real world, the rest of us are quietly waiting to cast our votes for the primary. We will let that speak loud and clear for us. I will concede that he may win the first two contest but when he gets to places with more diversity he's done, exit stage left.

[Gothmog]

10. Match up polls are not that meaningful at this stage but this is nice to see

These polls are not that meaningful at this stage but this is nice to see.

[Tarheel_Dem]

11. Well, there's another talking point shot all to hell. Jeff Weaver was all over NPR saying BS....

had a better shot at beating the Republicans than Hillary. If Bernie keeps alienating traditional democratic constituencies, like Planned Parenthood & Human Rights Campaign, I'm not sure he could put together a winning coalition in the GE.

[Stimoyo]

12. NC: Public Policy Polling: Clinton close to 60%

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720160119108

[Hekate]

14. KnR

[Politicub]

16. It will be sublime to watch Hillary wipe the debate floor with whichever

GOP crackpot wins the nom.