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STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 6, 2016
Last edited Sun Mar 6, 2016, 03:33 PM - Edit history (1)
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,121, Sanders 481 (Clinton +640).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 670, Sanders 460 (Clinton +210).
Versus Targets: Clinton 670/586 (+84), Sanders 460/544 (-84).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.4% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 5 (KS, LA, NE): Clinton 59, Sanders 50 (Clinton +9).
Versus Targets: Clinton 59/57 (+2), Sanders 50/52 (-2).
Next Primary: TODAY
Maine: 25 delegates.
Targets: Clinton 10, Sanders 15.
Latest Polls
Michigan (ARG): Clinton 60, Sanders 36 (Clinton +24).
Michigan (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 57, Sanders 40 (Clinton +17).
Michigan (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 55, Sanders 44 (Clinton +11).
Current Polls-Plus Projections
Michigan: Clinton 62.3, Sanders 35.2.*
Mississippi: Clinton 79.1, Sanders 14.6.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.1, Sanders 36.4.
Ohio: Clinton 60.4, Sanders 37.3.
Florida: Clinton 65.9, Sanders 31.1.
Illinois: Clinton 65.8, Sanders 30.1.
*does not include latest polls
Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 391, Cruz 304, Rubio 125.
Michigan Projection: Trump 36, Kasich 23, Cruz 20.
Comments
Kansas went very well for Bernie yesterday: he exceeded his target by 4 delegates. In Louisiana, meanwhile, Hillary exceeded her target by 6, and in Nebraska both candidates hit their targets dead-on, so Hillary was +2 against target for the day. (If you prefer to count on your fingers, she was +9.)
Meanwhile, new polls out of Michigan show the race narrowing dramatically in that state. The 538 projection above does not take into account the NBC or CBS polls, which shows Bernie behind by as little as 11 points. Sadly, Michigan is not going to be the absolute blowout that Hillary fans were hoping for.
The fact remains, however, that she is poised to comfortably win a state that demographically favors Bernie; his target is 4 delegates above Hillary's. So barring a catastrophe, the day after tomorrow will see Hillary increase her lead on the track.
On the dark side, the pundits are saying to stick a fork in Rubio, but that Cruz actually has a shot at beating Trump. Make no mistake: Cruz is Trump, without the amusement factor (and with a maple leaf). The prospect of a Republican President is always cause for nervousness, but with Rubio gone from serious competition, the prospects are downright terrifying.
A few changes to be aware of. You may have noticed that I'm now counting the percentage of remaining pledged delegates that Hillary needs to secure the majority of pledged delegates. I've also discontinued the endorsement score tracker: realistically, it's not going to change much before the end of the race. If something big happens, like Liz Warren endorsing, I'll note it here.
One more thing: the Iditarod sled dog race begins today in Alaska! Many liberals don't approve of sled dog racing, but I have a soft spot for it, and have had since childhood. Those dogs are absolutely magnificent (and when a musher does mistreat his or her dogs, he or she should be thrown to the wolves). (Hey, is that a pun?) So from tomorrow until the end of the race, I'm going to post Iditarod results at the bottom.
(One more one more thing: the stork brought my wife and I a beautiful baby niece yesterday! Here's hoping she will never know a world without a woman President!)
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. Latest polls are taken from RealClearPolitics. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.
Pun of the Day
A musher who mistreats his dogs should be thrown to the wolves!
9 replies
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= new reply since forum marked as read
as a resident of Alabama I must repeat our state motto:
"Thank God for Mississippi!"
