STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 7, 2016 (HRC group)
Reprinted from http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com with permission of the author (me).
Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,130, Sanders 499 (Clinton +631).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 677, Sanders 478 (Clinton +199).
Versus Targets: Clinton 677/596 (+81), Sanders 478/559 (-81).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.6% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 6 (ME): Sanders 16, Clinton 9 (Sanders +7).
Versus Targets: Sanders 16/15 (+1), Clinton 9/10 (-1).
Next Primary: March 8
Michigan, Mississippi: 166 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 86, Sanders 80.
Latest Polls
Michigan (ARG): Clinton 60, Sanders 36 (Clinton +24).
Michigan (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 57, Sanders 40 (Clinton +17).
Michigan (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 55, Sanders 44 (Clinton +11).
Michigan (Monmouth): Clinton 55, Sanders 42 (Clinton +13).
Michigan (Mitchell): Clinton 66, Sanders 29 (Clinton +37).
New York (Siena): Clinton 55, Sanders 34 (Clinton +21).
Idaho (UtahPolicy/Dan Jones): Sanders 47, Clinton 45 (Sanders +2).
Current Polls-Plus Projections
Michigan: Clinton 60.2, Sanders 37.4.
Mississippi: Clinton 79.1, Sanders 14.6.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.1, Sanders 36.4.
Ohio: Clinton 60.4, Sanders 37.3.
Florida: Clinton 65.9, Sanders 31.1.
Illinois: Clinton 65.8, Sanders 30.1.
Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 391, Cruz 304, Rubio 154.
Michigan Projection: Trump 36, Kasich 23, Cruz 20.
Comments
The pledged delegate numbers are probably going to be in a minor but constant state of flux from here on out, as states check and double-check and finalize their delegate counts. Thus you might see one candidate N delegates ahead one day, and N+3 delegates ahead the next, even though there has been no election since. Just one of the quirks of the technological age, friends.
Thanks to some such recalculating in Louisiana, the results of March 5 are now that Hillary and Bernie both hit their targets dead on, and so the versus-target numbers did not change. Meanwhile, Bernie pulled a little bit ahead of his target in Maine, winning the state 16-9, making him +1 versus target for the weekend. This may seem worrisome (or exciting, depending on who you're voting for!), but Bernie only has 31 states and some odd territories to make up ground. It doesn't matter how much the coming states favor him, because he has to make up ground against his own targets.
Even more polls for Michigan today -- only one more day! -- and also new polls for New York and Idaho.
(That's what I said: Idaho!?)
Remember that for the next week and a half or so, I'm going to posting results from the Iditarod sled dog race in Alaska, a race which I've followed since I was a kid. Why this instead of the pun of the day? Because it's my post! Puns will resume after the first finishers arrive in Nome.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. Latest polls are taken from RealClearPolitics. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.
Iditarod Update
Nicholas Petit into Rainy Pass at 8:22, Aliy Zirkle out of Finger Lake at 7:01.
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