Hillary Clinton

Chichiri

(4,667 posts) Tue Mar 8, 2016, 07:55 AM Mar 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 8, 2016

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,130, Sanders 499 (Clinton +631).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 677, Sanders 478 (Clinton +199).
Versus Targets: Clinton 677/596 (+81), Sanders 478/559 (-81).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.6% of remaining pledged delegates.

Latest Results

March 6 (ME): Sanders 16, Clinton 9 (Sanders +7).
Versus Targets: Sanders 16/15 (+1), Clinton 9/10 (-1).

Next Primary: March 8

Michigan, Mississippi: 166 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 86, Sanders 80.

Latest Polls

New York (Siena): Clinton 55, Sanders 34 (Clinton +21).
Idaho (UtahPolicy/Dan Jones): Sanders 47, Clinton 45 (Sanders +2).
Ohio (PPP): Clinton 56, Sanders 35 (Clinton +21).

Current Polls-Plus Projections

Michigan: Clinton 60.2, Sanders 37.3.
Mississippi: Clinton 79.2, Sanders 14.5.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.3, Sanders 36.1.
Ohio: Clinton 61.9, Sanders 35.3.
Florida: Clinton 66.1, Sanders 30.9.
Illinois: Clinton 66.0, Sanders 29.9.

Quick Glance at the GOP

Pledged Delegates: Trump 390, Cruz 303, Rubio 153.
Michigan Projection: Trump 37, Kasich 24, Cruz 23.

Comments
Michigan and Mississippi vote today. Hillary's target for the day is somewhat higher than Bernie's, thanks to Mississippi. Once that target is made, however, it's up to Bernie to perform well in Michigan, where he's demographically favored, and where he's currently around 20 points behind.

Barring a catastrophe, the narrative going into March 15 will be that Hillary just won two states including Michigan. We then have five states on the 15th which, combined, will yield almost as many delegates as Super Tuesday. There is no data on Missouri, but the other four states all have Hillary ahead by very comfortable margins.

Many analysts are saying that the race is over, that Hillary truly is inevitable, that there's no chance that Bernie can catch up. Are they right? I personally am about 95% on that. After tonight and next week, I expect I'll either be able to ramp it up to 100%, or be forced to walk it back a little.

Remember, though, that it won't be based on how well Hillary does against Bernie, but on how well she does against her own targets. Hillary is +199 against Bernie, but +81 against her own target. This approach makes the race seem narrower than it is, which in turn should make Bernie supporters happy. But the virtue of it is, it doesn't matter how well how well one candidate or another is supposed to perform in coming states, because the targets take that into account. If Bernie is highly favored in a state like Washington, for instance, then his target is that much higher.

After March 15, twenty-six states will have voted. However far Bernie has fallen behind his own target at that time, he'll have twenty-four states in which to make it up.

But that's for next week. Let's see what happens tonight!

How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. Latest polls are taken from RealClearPolitics. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.

Iditarod Update
Lance Mackey out of Rohn @ 18:54, Dallas Seavey @ 19:52, Aliy Zirkle @ 20:01.