Michigan shaping up well for Clinton

[Godhumor]

Barely anything reported yet in Wayne Country (Detroit) which also has 1/5th of total districts in Michigan, and a huge POC presence. She will also do very well in Genesee (Flint), which hasn't reported anything yet, but should be one of her strongholds.

Early signs, despite what some may say, are actually favorable for HRC.

[Lucinda]

1. Thankie for the info!

[book_worm]

2. yes, the fact that she is within 2-points of Bernie

in the vote so far without really anything out of Wayne County is good news.

[WhiteTara]

3. Is this a shared delegate state? nt

[Godhumor]

4. All Democratic contests are proportional n/t

[WhiteTara]

7. Thanks.

[Fla Dem]

20. Yes, as long as a candidate gets at least 15% of the vote they get delegates.

[GusBob]

8. California?

Thanks for the updates

[Treant]

16. CA is proportional.

[Light63]

5. Why are those counties reporting so slow?

I'm watching CNN and they are talking about how Hillary STOLE BS's ideas, especially the black male commentator. I don't know his name. He said it seems to him that Hillary is single-issue candidate!

Can anyone out there know why BS is leading so much now?

[WhiteTara]

11. 4 counties' polls close at 9pm

[Stand and Fight]

15. Van Jones... Was one of Obama's folks and is well known in certain circles.

Was a special counsel to the President under Obama until Beck and others agitated to have him removed.

[Light63]

29. Yes, he was the commentator who said Hillary stole BS's ideas

and she perhaps is the single-issue.

[DavidDvorkin]

6. Thanks

Those early numbers were disconcerting. I wondered about areas yet to report.

[RBInMaine]

9. Small rural areas report first. When the large urban areas come in, Hillary DOMINATES.

[DavidDvorkin]

12. That's generally true, of course -- during general elections, too.

[mcar]

10. K&R

[George II]

13. Neither of those large urban areas have reported much (Wayne about 1%, Genesee 0%) yet.

[MSMITH33156]

14. This vibes with Daily Kos

Sanders has been doing well in rural areas, such as in the state’s southwest (where he could carry the 6th Congressional District) and in north. But these regions don’t have a lot of people, and he’s not racking up the huge margins he’d need to offset what will likely be strong performances by Clinton in urban areas, particularly Detroit.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/3/8/1498068/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Mini-Tuesday-liveblog-2

[Treant]

17. Ugh, this is PAINFUL

Even Detroit is currently leaning Sanders on very few votes in yet.

[Kaleva]

19. Only 6% of precincts in Wayne county have reported so far.

[Treant]

21. 9.6% now

with Sanders' lead still holding. Barring a reversal, that's not going to do it.

[Kaleva]

23. 19% now and HRC has taken the lead

[Treant]

24. 19.0%

And it finally reversed! Clinton 52%, which is still too low, but looks a lot better.

[Kaleva]

28. HRC will do well in Genesee County too but only 6% reporting there

[MSMITH33156]

18. From 538

These are the election nights I dread. Trump has won Michigan and Mississippi, and it was an easy call. Clinton crushed Sanders in Mississippi and is well-positioned in Michigan, where Detroit and Flint have yet to report. Fortunately, we still have a fight on our hands for second place on the Republican side in Michigan, and Idaho and Hawaii haven’t even started counting the votes yet.

Although she's losing Detroit early. Still early. But kind of makes me nervous we won't run up the large margin we expected/need there even if we win Wayne County.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

22. Hillary just moved into the lead in Wayne County

19% in

[Treant]

25. Ugh, finally.

Flint's still out, too.

[MSMITH33156]

26. Let's hope that

she does better in the rest of Wayne County. Her lead is not nearly big enough.

[oasis]

27. Hill will be coming on strong.

[6chars]

30. a little math

If Sanders takes rest of Michigan by 51-49, and Hillary takes Wayne County by 75-25 in line with other heavily AA voting patterns elsewhere, let's see, if Wayne County is 20% of total districts, highly democratic so probably more like 1/3 of Dem votes, that would give Hillary about a 15 point victory.

[jmowreader]

32. Look at Wayne, Oakland and Macomb Counties

Those three are considered "Metro Detroit." Man, this is going to be a long night.

[6chars]

33. The counties are pretty different

Macomb - very white (and probably a lot lower % dem voters). Oakland - pretty white (and not so many dem voters), Wayne - 40% AA (which means a majority of Dem voters in Wayne, and Wayne is a large proportion of dem voters in greater detroit)

[jmowreader]

34. Thanks

[BlueMTexpat]

31. The target goal number for Hillary in MI

is 63 delegates. MI has 130 delegates in all. Bernie must win at least 67, especially because he is losing badly in MS, to remain viable.

The two things that are hurting Hillary in MI are 1) open primary and 2) independent voters - the same things that hurt her badly in NH. In some ways, MI is one of the last chances for GOPers and GOPer leaning Independents to try to derail her.

If Hillary meets or exceeds the target goal of 63 delegates, she is still very much on track for the nomination, especially because she will most likely exceed her target goal of 23 delegates (out of 36) for MS.

Right now, with 25% reporting in MS, Bernie is hovering around the 15% threshold. If he slips below (unlikely IMO), Hillary will get all 36 MS delegates.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

[riversedge]

35. Thanks. you reminded me to keep my mind on delegates.

[Skid Rogue]

36. The Detroit numbers are fine...

It's those Ann Arbor numbers that worry me.

[consciouslocs]

37. Looks like Detroit is starting to come on...

[oasis]

38. Mayor of Flint says she supports Hillary because of her support early

on in the water crisis. In the interview with MSNBC's Chris Matthews, which just ended 10:30 pm est, Mayor Karen Weaver says she was not personally contacted by Bernie Sanders during the crisis.