Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton headed for big wins Tuesday, experts predict

[BlueMTexpat]

I almost hate to post this for fear of jinxing Hillary's chances. But even if the polls are inaccurate in some states and Bernie wins more primaries tomorrow than anticipated, none will be a blowout for him ... and he needs blowouts everywhere.

First there was March 1. With more than a dozen contests and the most delegates at stake of any day in the presidential race, the original Super Tuesday gave big totals to billionaire Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
...
On the Democratic side, Clinton is also expected to win four of five states, according to the PredictWise model. She has a greater than 85-percent chance of winning delegate-rich Florida and North Carolina, plus a 65-percent chance of winning Ohio. Clinton is also narrowly favored (53 percent) in Illinois, where she grew up, while Sen. Bernie Sanders has a 56-percent probability of victory in Missouri.

More at the article. Note that Fivethirtyeight still predicts that Clinton will take MO as well.

What I hope for most is that Hillary extends her lead overwhelmingly tomorrow so that it is clear to ALL that she will not be overtaken in her quest for the Dem nomination.

Bernie can stay in as long as he wants, IMO, and if that lasts to the Convention, so be it. But hopefully the DU Admins will - finally - put a stop to the relentless RW smears on DU against Hillary by blocking those who post them. Any person who comes to this website simply to smear the person who for all intents and purposes will be the Dem nominee for President and thus carry the GOP's water for them should not be tolerated here. Period.

Sorry - edited to add link: http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/03/donald_trump_hillary_clinton.html

[Thinkingabout]

1. Hoping to see good results tomorrow.

[BlueMTexpat]

2. I'm keeping my fingers crossed

while phone-banking!

[MSMITH33156]

3. These articles worry me a bit

because it sets the bar too high for us, and allows Bernie to claim victory by losing, like he did last week.

The article itself is fair, but the headline implies a sweep, which probably won't happen.

[BlueMTexpat]

4. As I noted, I hesitated to post it

and probably should have changed the headline to avoid the chortles in case Bernie "sweeps" by 1% again.

No matter what happens in the primaries tomorrow, he needs not only to meet - but to exceed - his delegate targets in every contest.

Otherwise, his star will have dimmed, no matter how tomorrow's events are spun by his supporters.

[MADem]

10. If he doesn't win MO (the demographics favor him there) I will be surprised.

Even with all the teens able to vote in other venues, though, he's not going to get blow outs.

He's got a delegate problem--in that he doesn't have enough, and he's unlikely to make up the deficit.

[MADem]

5. I am hoping for a good result tomorrow as well--I think it would help settle

some of the drama of late.

[BlueMTexpat]

6. One can only hope so.

[MADem]

9. Here's a bit of good cheer.....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/14/why-hillary-clintons-delegate-lead-over-bernie-sanders-is-bigger-than-it-looks/




Why Hillary Clinton’s delegate lead over Bernie Sanders is bigger than it looks

But here's the thing: Whether or not Clinton wins Ohio doesn't really matter.

It's important to remember that the Democrats, unlike the Republicans, don't allocate delegates on a winner-take-all basis. When Donald Trump won South Carolina with a plurality of the vote, he got all of the state's 50 delegates, a total that right now constitutes more than half of his lead. There are no states like that on the Democratic side. There are some variations in how the states divvy up their delegates, but they're proportionally distributed from now until the primary is over.....As Clinton tried to play catch-up with Barack Obama, he would get some delegates every time she did. The only times she made big gains against him was in states she won by a wide margin. But the proportional delegate system kept Obama steadily out of reach.

It's worth comparing Obama's 2008 lead in the delegates to Clinton's. Clinton, by virtue of huge margins of victory in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana, has a much bigger lead than Obama did at this point -- or than Obama did at any point.


...Let's say that Clinton and Sanders tie in Ohio, Missouri and Illinois and she wins by a 20 points in Florida and North Carolina. Per some back-of-the-envelope math, Clinton would get about 380 delegates to Sanders's 315 -- increasing her lead by about 60 delegates. Even if Sanders wins Illinois, Missouri and Ohio, Clinton will still net more delegates if she wins Florida and North Carolina big....If delegates split evenly on Tuesday, Sanders needs more than 55 percent of all of the rest of the delegates to tie Clinton.......

[BlueMTexpat]

12. You know this and I know this.

Basically, but for some incredibly unforeseen event, Clinton already has the nomination pretty much sewn up. Thanks for the encouragement.

But every time there is a "surprise" like MI, it encourages those here who have been acting most outrageously to continue acting that way. I am so disappointed, sick at heart, and tired to see a site like DU lend itself to the nastiness. This is the number one reason why I hope that she locks things up definitively tomorrow once and for all!

Tonight at my phone-banking session, we had millennials (including first-time voters) participating for Hillary and they were very enthusiastic (and cute!). While they admitted that they were in the minority among their friends, they also said that those they know will be happy to vote for Hillary in the GE. This tallies with everything I myself have experienced in real life. Not so in the virtual world that is DU.

Some Hillary voters I spoke with told me that their unions had also been calling and urging support for Hillary. So tomorrow's outcomes should be very interesting.

[BlueMTexpat]

7. I'm adding a KOS diary to this OP.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/3/14/1501046/-Pre-Super-Super-Tuesday-polling-roundup-Polls-say-Clinton-4-of-5-but-Michigan-argues-otherwise

KOS provides an analysis of the most recent polls, but nears his conclusion with this:

Obviously, the best-case scenario for Clinton would be a clean sweep of the evening. For Sanders, it would be winning Illinois, Missouri and Ohio. Either way, Clinton should end the evening with a larger delegate lead. But at this point, her goal isn’t to grow her delegate lead (she’s gonna be the nominee), it’s to deliver a decisive knock-out blow to Sanders to try and end this sooner rather than later. And losing two or three states tomorrow—regardless the final delegate count—won’t accomplish that.

Tomorrow is a big day, with a lot on the line.

More nail-biting, but ...

[Tarheel_Dem]

8. I'm almost dead certain about FL & NC, and remain "cautiously" optimistic about the rest. n/t

[BlueMTexpat]

13. +1! eom

[book_worm]

11. I feel very good about FL & NC & better about Ohio, but IL & Mo will

be very close and could go either way.

[BlueMTexpat]

14. I spoke to MO voters, among

others, tonight. Hillary supporters outnumbered Bernie's by far. But we'll see what tomorrow brings because it is an open primary and we know how some are trying to skew the results in such.