Bernie's about to have some good weeks, but DON'T BE FOOLED. Here's why.

[Chichiri]

Suppose Hillary and Bernie both hit their demographic targets from tonight's election. (I think Hillary will beat it, but just suppose.) Their pledged delegate totals will be 1,140 and 878, respectively and Hillary's lead will be 262.

2,033 delegates will remain, and Hillary needs 886 of them, or 43.7%.

Say they hit their targets on March 22. The delegate totals will be 1,197 and 952, making Hillary's lead 245.

1,902 delegates will remain, and Hillary needs 829 of them, or 43.5%.

Ditto March 29. Totals are 1,258 and 1,033; Hillary's lead is 225.

1,760 delegates will remain, and Hillary needs 768 of them, or 43.6%.

Ditto April 5. Totals are 1,296 and 1,081; Hillary's lead is 215.

1,674 delegates will remain, and Hillary needs 730 of them, or 43.6%.

Do you see the pattern?

Bernie is going to win states, but winning states is not going to be enough. He has to win more delegates than his own slender demographic advantage already gives him. He needs to win each and every contest from here on by an average of about 56.7% or more. That means New York, that means Pennsylvania, that means California, that means Kentucky, that means Puerto Rico and Guam, and so on and so forth.

Forget the states. In theory, Hillary doesn't need to win even a single state from here on out. Look at what percentage she needs, and what percentage Bernie needs. My prediction is that that 43.6% figure will not increase substantially, but will hold steady or, more likely, decrease, no matter how many states Bernie wins. States don't matter. Delegates matter. Bernie won't get them, and Hillary will.

[griffi94]

1. hillary has already mathed bernie

he wont win enogh primaries by enough f a margin to close the gap
bernie ran a good race for a mostly unknown
now he's bernt toast

[Chichiri]

3. Bernt Toast? nt

[riversedge]

6. yup. spot on

[UMTerp01]

2. Exactly...ITS THE MATH!!!!

Thats the narrative that I've been hearing tonight...that the calendar is more favorable to Sanders after tonight. It is but Sanders needs blowout wins the way he had in Vermont and the way Hillary had in places like Mississippi and Alabama. Because there are no winner take all states, she's still going to get delegates, but the lead she has padded makes it pretty insurmountable. It sucks because I vote at the end of April, am undecided, and feel like my vote is meh now. This race is pretty much decided. Hillary has more of a delegate lead than Obama had AT ANY TIME against Clinton in 2008.

[Treant]

7. Your vote still counts

Just like every vote counts.

Your candidate only wins because their people show up. If Clinton's people sit on their laurels and Sanders sweeps the rest of the state, she doesn't win. If Sanders' people get discourage and don't vote, Clinton takes it in a landslide and has no reason to pay any attention to what Bernie's people are saying.

There's always a good reason to go vote, even if the outcome seems assured!

[DemonGoddess]

8. Your vote still counts

I'm voting in my primary on May 3.

[Chichiri]

10. Definitely do vote when the time comes.

Preferably for Hillary, but either way just vote. Nothing makes you feel good like participating in democracy.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

4. I just went through this in another thread

I agree with your basic analysis. It looks to me like the absolute worst case is that Hillary wraps up the delegates she needs on 6/7 (when CA & NJ and a host of others vote). I think she'll come out of April with just over 2000 delegates.

[Chichiri]

5. April works for me. nt

[Coolest Ranger]

9. If I had a dollar

for every time someone said bernie going to win I be rich. Here's the truth, people are starting to see him for what he really is and as long as states have black people who take a good hard look at his record as they claim we should, trust me when I say this, bernie is finish, he's not winning jack crap.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

11. Oh that pesky math

Under the bus with you math

[NurseJackie]

12. NDT ... nice guns! (Who knew?)

[beachbum bob]

13. clinton supporters need to remain engaged and VOTE....and hillary needs to focus more on Trump

and less on sanders....not ignore sanders but he is no longer at real threat...and I hope to see sanders dial it back some too. Keep having townhalls.....throw in some more debates....keep democratic civility in front of the american people to contrast the conservative dog fight.....

[sufrommich]

14. Sanders is probably going to start having money

troubles. Donors are probably already dropping out.

[misterhighwasted]

16. Yes, and the FEC wants some answers on the 17th.

http://www.thepeoplesview.net/main/2016/3/14/bernie-sanders-potentially-illegal-campaign-contributions

This could complicate things for bernie & we'll be watching it closely.

[livetohike]

17. Agree. He has lost the momentum and was talking about winning three

of the states last night. Not good the way things turned out.

It also looks like he has been spending money as soon as he gets it.

[George II]

15. He hasn't had a good week yet - each week he falls further behind. That will continue.

[Setsuna1972]

18. The nomination is done

Finished , complete, over in terms of the math . Yes he will win some states, but it's over .