Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumNext Target: Arizona (Hillary's Group)
Next week, Idaho and Utah have caucuses. We'll lose those.
But that doesn't really matter.
Arizona is a closed primary, so we should do reasonably well there.
But that doesn't really matter, either.
The primary is over.
Arizona, however, is a state that Obama lost by 9% in 2012...but that translates to 200,000 votes.
And there is room to grow. Obama lost women in 2012 in Arizona. Hillary will connect better with them. Obama also only won the Latino vote 74-25%. If it's Trump on the ticket, we can easily get another 10% out of the Latino vote and win the women's vote.
But to make that sort of change, you have to lay the groundwork now. So we need to get Hillary's message out. To present an alternative to Trump's bigotry. This is where you sow the seed that will grow in November.
And don't think it's impossible. In 2004, John Kerry lost Virginia by 8.2%, over 250,000 votes. In 2008 and 2012, Obama won that state.
SunSeeker
(51,513 posts)Treant
(1,968 posts)calling Arizona a loss for Clinton, and going with the targets of 34 delegates for her and 41 for him.
No significant net change, in other words.
I still have some hopes out for Utah, though. Idaho is a clear loss.
I expect that Clinton hits UT and AZ hard this week, and even spends a little time in ID as she never gives up and never gives in.
Stuckinadeepredstate
(8 posts)Large Latino population and a lot of retirees. I think HRC may be able to pull off a W. She pulled over 70% of the Latino vote in Florida but on the other hand was tied with BS in Illinois. She definitely does well with older voters.
I haven't seen any polling. Anyone got any?
EDIT: poll out yesterday has HRC at 50, BS at 24 and 26 undecided. Hopefully last night's results persuade the undecideds to get on board!