STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 16, 2016

[Chichiri]

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,599, Sanders 844 (Clinton +755).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,132, Sanders 818 (Clinton +314).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,132/1,050 (+82), Sanders 844/968 (-124).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.9% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15: Clinton 364, Sanders 264 (Clinton +100); 63 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 364/365 (-1), Sanders 264/326 (-62).


Next Primary: March 22

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.



Comments
Wow.

While Hillary supporters were busy bewaring the Ides of March, the voters of yesterday's five states were quietly setting up a (probable) clean sweep that was nearly as unexpected as Michigan, and infinitely more welcome. Hillary won Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Illinois -- the last two in particular were up in the air, and thus major victories for Hillary -- while the fifth, Missouri, has not been called because the difference is less than half a percentage point, but that difference favors Hillary.

The counts are messy, and likely to remain so for a while, and FiveThirtyEight is not doing the best possible job of staying on top of things. From here on, therefore, I'm going to use the New York Times' pledged delegate counts. Since they haven't allocated every single delegate from every single state, this will throw a very small wrench into the numbers given here so far -- but I believe there will be much less chance of subtracting allocated delegates, so the numbers on both sides should only go up. This will give us a surer (if possibly later) knowledge of when the nomination is clinched.

The primary will last into May or June, but it is now exceedingly likely that Hillary will win the nomination. Most media outlets are already treating her as the presumptive nominee, without actually projecting her win, and Democratic sites such as DailyKos are switching over to general election mode. A staggering amount of humble pie will be consumed if, by some miracle, Bernie ends up winning -- but the reward, getting a couple months' headstart on the general election, is worth the risk.

As for me, I'll be continuing these posts until the clinch. I like numbers.

Since the Iditarod has been won, and since my supply of puns remains finite, I'm going to fill the bottom section with NCAA predictions -- but not the kind of predictions you might expect. My wife received a March Madness bracket at work, and she does not care one whit for basketball, so she filled the entire thing out by flipping a coin. The result is some, ah, interesting predictions . . .


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Mrs. Chichiri's Coin-Flipped NCAA Predictions
Buffalo over Miami, Hampton over Virginia, Stony Brook over Kentucky, Austin Peay over Kansas, Syracuse over Dayton.

[Chichiri]

1. Vanity kick. nt

[DemonGoddess]

2. K&R!

[Lucinda]

3. It will be interesting to see how her coin toss methodology plays out!

And thanks, yet again, for doing these!

[Her Sister]

4. over 300+ pledged delegates difference

Thanks CHi

[JohnnyLib2]

5. Thanks once again, except for 1 item:

No, no, Kentucky doesn't lose the first game.

[Chichiri]

6. Them's the coin flip. nt