STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 19, 2016

[Chichiri]

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,614, Sanders 856 (Clinton +758).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,172, Sanders 846 (Clinton +326).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,172/1,050 (+122), Sanders 846/968 (-122).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).


Next Primary: March 22

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.



Comments
The final delegate estimates for the March 15 states are in, and Hillary has come in 32 delegates ahead of target, for a total of +122 against target.

As Bernie supporters have gleefully pointed out, we are now over the hill: most of the remaining states favor Bernie by small margins. Thus, there's an excellent chance we will see the absolute margin of 326 delegates shrink. However, this has nothing to do with the targets. Bernie could win every state that he is supposed to win, by the margins that he is expected to win by, and at the end he will be 122 delegates short of a majority. It's not enough to outperform Hillary; he has to outperform himself.

Which he did in Illinois, coming in an impressive 7 delegates above target. But in Florida? 26 delegates below target. That has been his pattern so far: one step forward, three steps back. Narrow wins in some states, huge losses in others. He banked on headlines, while Hillary banked on math. Sporadic wins in states like New Hampshire and Michigan gave Bernie some headlines -- but Hillary has had the math from day one.


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
I couldn't take care of the plants, because I hadn't botany!

[riversedge]

1. I just REC and then realized that does no good right now. Thanks

[yallerdawg]

2. My Bing popup forecasts Hillary winning all three primaries "Western Tuesday"!

If that holds, 8 states in a row would be really bad press for somebody!

Probably real hard on the wallet, too.