Nate Silver on Math

[Her Sister]

NATE SILVER 12:03 AM

Sanders’s Tough Math ~There are 131 pledged delegates at stake tonight for Democrats. It’s going to be hard for Sanders to win a majority of those given that Arizona has most of the delegates and Clinton is winning big there, but it’s not impossible if he crushes it in Utah and Idaho. So let’s say he almost does it. Clinton gets 66 delegates on the night and Sanders gets 65.

That would get Sanders up to 920 pledged delegates, while Clinton would have 1,242, with 1,889 pledged delegates still outstanding. Skipping a little bit of math, but Sanders would need 59 percent of the remaining total to tie Clinton in pledged delegates. That’s really difficult to do; it would be equivalent to beating Clinton by 18 percentage points the rest of the way out. Merely breaking even in delegates isn’t nowhere near enough for Sanders at this point.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-22-primaries-arizona-utah-presidential-election-2016/

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

[Her Sister]

1. We can make informed predictions

We can make informed predictions.

We know that Clinton does best in larger, more diverse states. We know that Sanders does best in smaller, less diverse states. That's a pattern, and I see no reason to believe that pattern will get flipped upside down. Given that and Clinton's 300+ delegate lead, it's virtually impossible for Sanders to win the nomination.

Request after request has been made for someone to use one of the delegate calculators to demonstrate a realistic path to 2026 for Sanders. As far as I know, those requests have never been answered. There's a reason for that.

Plagiarizing (again) this comment from Garrett78 (LOL!!) http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511547639#post31

Thought t'was perfect and succinct!

[Kaleva]

3. No answers yet to this question posted in the Bernie group

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280155305

[NurseJackie]

7. 0 replies, 119 views

[Treant]

8. One view was mine

and I didn't answer because I thought the way it was set up was far too rosy for Bernie.

[Kaleva]

9. I just kicked it back to the top.

[SunSeeker]

10. LOL

[NurseJackie]

11. Kaleva will probably be banned for that! :-P

[Kaleva]

13. Yes I have and the OP has been deleted.

OP's post:

"I've been ordered to delete this discussion

by a mod or I will be blocked from the group.

I guess we can't discuss delegate math here..."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1280&pid=155764

[NurseJackie]

14. Bernbabe shouldn't have deleted the post. At worst the only thing they could ...

... have done would be to lock it, but not delete it. As it turns out, the threat to "self-delete or be banned" was an empty promise. Bernbabe deleted the post as requested, and was BANNED ANYWAY.

It's absolutely hysterical that you got banned for making a "kick" post. No text, just "kicked".

They're getting a bit touchy over there, aren't they?

[Kaleva]

15. I'm banned member #306 and he's #307

I'm not upset for being banned as I'm not a Bernie supporter and they can run their group as they see fit. And your right about Bernbabe should not have deleted his post as it was an interesting question which could have been cross posted in GDP if no one in the Bernie group wanted to answer it there.

[LiberalFighter]

19. I got blocked from the Sanders group yesterday after only one reply.

It was only stating information about the Arizona fiasco. Beam Me Up Scotty blocked me.

[liberal N proud]

2. It's all about the math

[stonecutter357]

4. K&R!

[BlueMTexpat]

5. Then there is this, while still awaiting last

night's results and final delegate totals.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-22-primaries-arizona-utah-presidential-election-2016/

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton won Arizona easily, while Bernie Sanders won Utah and (although it hasn’t been called officially yet) very probably will win Idaho — in both cases perhaps by overwhelming margins. Thus, it’s probable — likely if I had to guess — that Sanders will win more pledged delegates on the evening.

Not all the news is good for Sanders, however. He was expected to win more delegates on the evening based on our demographic targets — and more importantly, he’s far enough behind Clinton that he needs to not just meet but blow out his delegate targets the rest of the way to have a shot at eventually catching Clinton. Alaska, Hawaii and Washington will vote on Saturday, states where we expect Sanders to perform well.

[Thinkingabout]

6. I expect the majority of the super delegates to go to Hillary and if any are going to change it will

be from Sanders to Hillary.

[Tarheel_Dem]

12. "Merely breaking even in delegates isn’t nowhere near enough for Sanders at this point."

This is the part the BS'ers stubbornly refuse to accept. He needs blowouts everywhere from now on.

[Dawson Leery]

16. April 19 and 26 are going to be dark days for him.

We in the Northeast are ready to give Hillary the nod.

Wisconsin may go against him too.

[Tarheel_Dem]

18. Fingers & toes crossed.

[Codeine]

17. Better than Nate Silver on meth.

Dude will not shut up!