STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 26, 2016

[Chichiri]

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,691, Sanders 949 (Clinton +742).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 920 (Clinton +303).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,223/1,113½ (+109½), Sanders 920/1048½ (-128½).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.1% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15: Sanders 73, Clinton 55 (Sanders +18); 3 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Sanders 73/74 (-1), Clinton 55/57 (-2).


Next Primary: TODAY

Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: 142 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 81, Clinton 61.



Comments
Happy Washington Day! Or, as we might as well just go ahead and call it, Bernie Saturday.

In addition to picking up the bird vote, apparently, Bernie is expected to sweep today's three states offering a total of 142 pledged delegates, and by wide margins. Bernie followers had days like today on South Carolina Day, Super Tuesday, and March 15 -- although the latter two were much bigger wins for Hillary than today will be for Bernie. They weren't fun days for Bernie fans, and today won't be fun for Hillary fans. That's just the way the calendar shakes down.

The demographic targets for today are Bernie 81, Hillary 61. If they hit those targets, Hillary's lead will be down to 283 delegates, and she will need 42.0% of all remaining delegates. (She's at 42.1% now.)

Let's be pessimistic, however, and say that Bernie completely blows Hillary out of the water, winning 111 to 31. Yes, that bad. It's 77.6% of today's delegates, or slightly less than what he managed earlier this week in Idaho and Utah. That's probably a worst realistic case scenario, but I believe in preparing for the worst. If that happens, Hillary's lead will be down to 223 delegates, and she will need 43.7% of all remaining delegates.

My guess is that the results will be somewhere between these two scenarios, but let us be mentally prepared for the 111-31 scenario. It could happen.

A few things to keep in mind, however. First, whatever happens, Hillary's lead over Bernie will still be considerably larger than Obama's lead over Hillary ever was in 2008. Second, a Bernie blowout today, which will likely be the best day left for him in the primary, will only marginally decrease the difficulty of his task in the rest of the states. Third, despite any notions of momentum people may carry, any political wonk worth his or her salt would rather have Hillary's numbers than Bernie's.

So today, we take our licks. Tomorrow is Easter. Monday, we start working our asses off for Wisconsin, New York, and Northeastern Tuesday.



How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
Murder by dagger is difficult, but I'll take a stab at it!

[Her Sister]

1. Very well!

We will prepare. Thank You

[yallerdawg]

2. In Washington!

https://www.instagram.com/p/BDSFX8dJsF9/?taken-by=briannakeilar

[BlueMTexpat]

3. Thanks for the link, yallerdawg!

Lovely to see that long line for Hillary!

[BlueMTexpat]

4. Thanks for these reminders, Chichiri! eom

[workinclasszero]

5. Thanks

[Thinkingabout]

6. The hill is still steep, expect it to become even steeper in the near future.

We will not stop working and will spend our time seeking votes and support rather than being diverted with complaining about primaries already completed.

[Chichiri]

8. Amen. nt

[JohnnyLib2]

7. Thanks.

Been watching for this.