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72DejaVu

(1,545 posts)
Tue Mar 29, 2016, 07:59 PM Mar 2016

I realized why Bernie polls higher than Hillary in the GE polls

It's because the Hillary supporters tell the pollstesr that they will vote for Bernie if he's the nominee, but the Bernie supporters don't tell them they will vote for Hillary.

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Trenzalore

(2,331 posts)
2. That and Bernie had been subject to minimal scrutiny
Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:13 PM
Mar 2016

Hillary has treated him like a mouthy little brother and really has yet to actually hit him.

Gothmog

(144,890 posts)
3. The lack of vetting of Sanders is also a reason why these polls are worthless
Tue Mar 29, 2016, 08:16 PM
Mar 2016

Sanders has not been fully vetted yet and so these polls are worthless. Dana Milbank has some good comments on general election match up polls https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Sanders and his supporters boast of polls showing him, on average, matching up slightly better against Trump than Clinton does. But those matchups are misleading: Opponents have been attacking and defining Clinton for a quarter- century, but nobody has really gone to work yet on demonizing Sanders.

Watching Sanders at Monday night’s Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump — or another Republican nominee — would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.


The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the “socialist” label and requested that Sanders define it “so that it doesn’t concern the rest of us citizens.”

Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who don’t want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: “Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top — that’s my definition of democratic socialism.”

But that’s not how Republicans will define socialism — and they’ll have the dictionary on their side. They’ll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. They’ll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldn’t be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists don’t win national elections in the United States .

Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases — “one of the biggest tax hikes in history,” as moderator Chris Cuomo put it — to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that “hypothetically, you’re going to pay $5,000 more in taxes,” and declared, “W e will raise taxes, yes we will.” He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that “it’s demagogic to say, oh, you’re paying more in taxes.

Well, yes — and Trump is a demagogue.

Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government “bigger than ever,” Sanders didn’t quarrel, saying, “P eople want to criticize me, okay,” and “F ine, if that’s the criticism, I accept it.”

Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.

Match up polls are worthless because these polls do not measure what would happen to Sanders in a general election where Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads.

DemonGoddess

(4,640 posts)
6. or the other thing (one of many things)
Tue Mar 29, 2016, 09:31 PM
Mar 2016

I could see the RW smear machine doing, is taking his Russian honeymoon, for example, and twisting that.

Tarheel_Dem

(31,220 posts)
8. Yup. Dukakis polled well (+17 pts.) after the '88 convention, and lost the election by 8.
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 03:54 AM
Mar 2016

You guessed it. Another Tad Devine debacle. They went to work on Dukakis after he accepted the nomination, and the rest is history.

SharonClark

(10,014 posts)
10. GE polls are meaningful only if the election is held today
Wed Mar 30, 2016, 07:54 PM
Mar 2016

a republican guy on MSNBC tonight said it - makes sense to me.

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