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Thu Jun 11, 2015, 10:06 AM

Interest in chart on Odds of 2016 Democratic Nomination

Hillary got 76%, Sanders 8%, O'Malley 6%, Biden 6%, Warren 6%. In the election Hillary 47% and Jeb 18%.


Source: Predictwise

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination

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Reply Interest in chart on Odds of 2016 Democratic Nomination (Original post)
Thinkingabout Jun 2015 OP
misterhighwasted Jun 2015 #1
yallerdawg Jun 2015 #2
hrmjustin Jun 2015 #3
Jim Lane Jun 2015 #4

Response to Thinkingabout (Original post)

Thu Jun 11, 2015, 10:18 AM

1. But I'm told, right here on DU, that Bernie is only 8 points behind Hillary.

Maybe they selectively forgot to include some pertinant info along with their percentage stats.

Now the overall stats you present here are believable and more likely the truest of any poll out there.

Great news, good post.
Thanks
HRC
MPOTUS 2016

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Response to Thinkingabout (Original post)

Thu Jun 11, 2015, 10:47 AM

2. Snap - back to reality!

Like it will matter.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Original post)

Thu Jun 11, 2015, 10:52 AM

3. K&R!

 

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Response to Thinkingabout (Original post)

Thu Jun 11, 2015, 12:14 PM

4. I'm not clear on their methodology but their probabilities sum to more than 100%.

 

It's not just rounding, either, because if you look at the full chart with all the very long shots, the probabilities total 135%.

I also note that their numbers can change very rapidly. There was an update at 11:34 a.m., about an hour and a half after your post, with Clinton and Sanders each going up a bit.

My own chart (my methodology being to pull numbers out of my ass) would have Sanders and O'Malley higher, Biden and Warren lower. The toughest one to set a number on is Clinton. Certainly she's the heavy favorite at this point, but the Convention is so far in the future that 77% strikes me as too high. OTOH, I think at least one DUer has made Clinton something like 95%.

A final note: Lincoln Chafee doesn't even make their chart. I give him a better chance than some of the people who are at 1% on the chart, like John Hickenlooper and Rahm Emanuel.

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