OpEd: Coming soon, a spring thaw with Cuba?
Coming soon, a spring thaw with Cuba?
A current is emerging in the U.S. attitude toward Cuba that appears more favorable to improved relations.
By Rafael Hernández
April 24, 2014, 5:33 p.m.
Reporting from Havana—
"Ay Obama/Ay Obama
go a little crazy
come to Havana."
Grupo Interactivo (Cuban pop band)
It's often assumed, or even taken for granted, that U.S. policy on Cuba is not dictated in Washington but in Miami by Cuban exiles who would rather die than allow Washington to negotiate with Havana. This interpretation holds the politics of a single Florida county responsible for a conflict that has lasted more than half a century. That may be one factor, but the real explanation is more complex.
Since the end of the Cold War, Cuba's profile on the United States' strategic radar has diminished. The island no longer has the significance it did nearly a quarter of a century ago when it had 50,000 soldiers in Angola and maintained a political alliance with the Soviet Union.
President Obama probably dedicates mere minutes to Cuba compared with the hours he devotes to Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, North Korea, Pakistan, China, Russia, Venezuela, Ukraine, etc. Yet Cuba, the largest island in the Caribbean, is part of the maritime hub that will emerge after the enlargement of the Panama Canal. And if you look at a map, the Gulf ports closest to Mariel, Cuba, are Houston, New Orleans and Mobile, Ala., not Veracruz or Maracaibo.
In this new context, a current is emerging in the U.S. attitude toward Cuba that appears more favorable to change. In November, Obama told the Cuban American lobby that U.S. strategy ought to remain open to the changes on the island, and he acknowledged the idea that "the same policies that we put in place in 1961 would somehow still be as effective as they are today in the age of the Internet and Google and world travel doesn't make sense." One month later, he was shaking Cuban President Raul Castro's hand at the memorial for Nelson Mandela.
More:
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/commentary/la-oe-hernandez-cuba-rapprochement-20140425,0,202388.story#ixzz30FBzMvJC
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