Last Argentine polls before Oct. 25 election show strong lead for Daniel Scioli.

[forest444]

Ruling party’s pro-business candidate is expected to win presidential election in the first round.

The Argentine ruling party nominee, Buenos Aires Province Governor Daniel Scioli, is primed to win the presidential election outright on October 25th, with a commanding lead over his nearest rivals, two polls published in local papers yesterday showed.

To win outright in the first round, and avoid a run-off election, a candidate requires 45% of valid votes or 40% and a 10-point lead over their nearest rival.

Scioli, a moderate Peronist from left-wing President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s Front for Victory Party (FpV), is set to garner 42% of votes, according to a poll published in Perfil. His closest rival, Mauricio Macri, the right-wing mayor of Buenos Aires, is getting 28% of the vote, according to the poll.

Similarly, Scioli is obtaining around 41% and Macri a little over 28%, in a CEOP poll released in Página 12. The same two polls showed that Sergio Massa, a suburban mayor who defected from the FpV in 2013 and is running as a center-right Peronist alternative to Scioli, would receive 23 and 22% respectively.

Governor Scioli, who owes much of his support to Fernández loyalists, is promising pro-business policies to spur growth and has made attracting new investment to Argentina a pillar of his campaign.

At: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/argentinian-polls-show-strong-lead-for-daniel-scioli-1.2396657

[Judi Lynn]

1. The election is right around the corner.Super good news, so far. Hope it lasts. Thanks, forest. n/t

[Peace Patriot]

2. "Ruling party’s pro-business candidate..."?

Is that an accurate description of Daniel Scioli? And what does it mean, do you know?

"Pro-business" as in, say, Hillary Clinton's association with banksters and other global corporate predators? Or "pro-business" as in supporting true, anti-monopolistic, local marketplaces--support of "Main Street" as opposed to Wall Street--busting those "too big to fail--more Bernie Sanders' position?

To me, this is a very, very important distinction! I have always felt that "the marketplace" is an essential of human nature. We love the variety, color, fun, open-mindedness and access both to different products and different ideas that a true market place provides. We are ALSO communal, and thrive best in a context of fairness, equality and compassion. We, in general, hate unfairness, monopolies and the greedy rich. The best societies exhibit all of these characteristics--communal values and true marketplaces.

I'm wondering what the Irish Times may mean by "pro-business"? Also, how is Scioli perceived in Argentina? As "pro-business," which sounds so...rightwing? But Fernandez, Scioli's mentor, is a leftist, is she not? What do these things mean in Argentina?

[forest444]

3. Good question. I think the answer may be in his choice for Economy Minister. Here's what we know:

Scioli's choices for key post of Economy Minister had been narrowed down to three people: Silvinia Batakis, Miguel Bein, and Mario Blejer. Of the three, Batakis is the most populist; Blejer the least; and Bein in between.

The local media for the most part had predicted that Miguel Bein would get the nod. Scioli however chose Ms. Batakis - which for me made sense given that she's been his Provincial Economy Minister for 4 years now; Bein or Blejer will most likely be the Central Bank President (in Argentina, not quite as powerful a post as Economy Minister). Her style? No nonsense, skeptical, yet flexible. She's probably the first Economy Minister in Buenos Aires Province history to have successfully tackled property tax evasion, particularly by large landowners.

Even so, Batakis is generally said to have a positive relationship with business and employers. While turning the chronic provincial budget deficit into a surplus, for instance, she also courted bond markets and oversaw several successful provincial bond issuances. Institutional investors have largely praised her for those twin policies.

That's fiscal policy; but what about financial policy? Because Argentina, like most countries in the world, can't create hard currency out of thin air (the way the Fed did to paper over $20 trillion in derivatives losses in '08, for instance), it only has a limited supply of dollars with which to pay all its foreign obligations (imports, foreign debt payments, royalties, what tourists use abroad, etc.). For this reason, there are limits on the access to dollars and other hard currency.

Batakis favors exiting the current restrictions on the dollar trade (already eased somewhat last year) - but gradually, and in part by courting the bond markets more actively than is currently the case. But she's more interested in making sure the industrial sector and other employers can import what they need with fewer obstacles, than of facilitating speculators and tax cheats (who usually ferret everything they can to offshore tax haves anyway). That's another key difference in her - and Bein's - brand of "pro-business" policy and of someone like Macri.

In her case (and Scioli's), I believe this should be read as 'pro-employer'.

[Peace Patriot]

4. Thanks so much for the info!

I can understand any decent president of Argentina's concern about Argentine businesses' ability to compete (honestly, without tax cheating and predatory speculation). I'm not sure that makes such a president "pro-business"; rather, it makes him or her "pro-Argentina," it seems to me, or, at least, "pro-Argentina" IF policies include fairness to workers and robust social programs--pro-people policies.

In THIS country, the corporate/billionaire-funded Democratic leaders are not just "pro-business" but are, by and large, pro-transglobal corporate predator, while 'playing possum' when it comes to fairness to workers and social programs. For instance, they allow the far right to dictate the political discussion of programs such as Social Security and Medicare, and then pretend to be our 'saviors' by simply keeping these programs alive--alive but constantly looted and eroded--such as the Social Security checks of the elderly getting gouged for a big Medicare 'premium" (even though workers have paid into both funds all their lives); or, they lament the onerous debt that students endure for college (when they remember even to mention it), but offer only palliatives--slight mitigations--rather than re-establishing FREE public education (as it was in the 1950s-60s) and driving the banksters out of the system. This fits nicely with the rightwing horror of altogether destroying public education.

I know that Left really means Left in South America these days (more or less)--unlike here where the Left has been usurped by the Corporate Democrats, and has been vigorously suppressed by the Corporate Media--so I PRESUME that the heir to Nestor Kirchner and Cristina Fernandez Kirchner (i.e., Scioli) is a strong and genuine supporter of social programs. Is he? And if not, is there a movement to the Left of him (and them)? I guess what I'm asking is, is the usurpation of the Left (by Corporatists) in progress there?

Sounds like Scioli's choice of Silvinia Batakis is a good sign, that the Left is still the Left in Argentina (representing the interests of the poor majority, including the interests of small, medium and local business people). Do you think this is true?

[forest444]

5. Yes. I believe that's where Scioli will resemble Cristina Kirchner the most: support for the poor.

He himself frequently reminds voters that, whatever other changes may have to be made, he's committed to preserving Cristina Kirchner's legacy of record safety net programs - a source of great resentment to much of the middle class and thus politically risky (Argentina has the largest proportional middle class in the region).

Here you have two examples:

“These districts show the achievements achieved over the past years as a result of the dignity and pro-employment policies sponsored by the federal government.”

“This is the best way to commemorate 70 years of Peronism’s foundations; social justice, such as the Universal Child Allowance (AUH - which cover all poor or children in Argentina), the Connecting Equality program, sewer works, potable water, housing, and paved roads.” *http://buenosairesherald.com/article/201128/fpv-will-respond-best-to-middle-class-popular-sectors

“She (Batakis), from the Economy Ministry, will continue making policy (note: política in this context means policy) conduct the direction of the economy, that way she has done it from the Bank of the Province of Buenos Aires - today a development bank.” *http://buenosairesherald.com/article/201047/with-batakis-politics-will-continue-to-conduct-the-economy

These policy statements are, as you know, complete anathema to the right - the kind of thing the Tea Nuts use to scare gullible middle class voters here in the U.S. (you know: "the gummint is gonna take what you own and give it to lazy minorities," or some such).

It's campaign rhetoric, of course; but Argentina has a very vocal media, and its voters tend to have long memories. They'll understand minor changes in tack - but they'll certainly hold him to his promises writ large.

[Judi Lynn]

6. Kicking to keep this thread in view this weekend. n/t

[forest444]

7. Thank you, Judi.

And thanks for taking the time for find other good posts on this subject.

By way of an update I should mention that Macri's right-wing goons have already tacitly given up any hope of winning, and have now preemptively resorted to Plan B: allege fraud.

In Argentina, each party is responsible for stocking each precinct with their respective ballots (rather than having all candidates on one ballot - which is a little strange, I know). They are all given a federal earmark for this purpose.

Well, it turns out that Macri's people deliberately failed to mail ballots to several counties in Buenos Aires Province (where polls show they'd lose anyway). The Federal Electoral Commission gave them a deadline extension; but they not only failed to mail them out even then, they got busy spreading rumors through social media trolls (many of them illegally funded with city moneys) that ballots had been discarded by the Postal Service.

After hemming and hawing for a couple of days (more than enough time to let Clarín and its cable news outfit TN scream about "missing ballots!!!" to all and sundry), the chief legal counsel for Macri's "Let's Change" party admitted that they had in fact not mailed them out. "Problems with the printers," he claimed (https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=http://www.infonews.com/nota/258201/cambiemos-reconocio-que-no-envio-sus-boletas-a-la-provincia-de-buenos-aires&prev=search). You know the game: the lie goes on the front page; the retraction on page 33.

Any way, thanks again for sharing - and above all for caring, Judi. This weekend, let's also say a prayer for Mexico; may Patricia bring no harm on those good people.