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Estimating the Latin Wave of Coronavirus
Projections show potential impact of COVID-19 on Latin America—Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Ecuador among the hardest hit
by Rafael Lozano
May 18, 2020
There’s no good time for a pandemic, but the timing of COVID-19 has been particularly difficult—if not downright cruel—for many countries around the world. For example, over the past two decades Brazil experienced a sustained period of growth that lifted millions of its citizens out of poverty, culminating symbolically in the country’s hosting the 2014 World Cup. However, this period was followed by years of instability, a time marked by political upheaval and scandal. And then along came COVID-19, which has led to new crises.
New COVID-19 estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics (IHME) indicate that the country is facing yet another hardship, and one that could worsen over the coming months. Projections released May 12—IHME’s first for countries outside of North America and Europe—estimate that across eight states of Brazil, the country could see about 90,000 deaths by August 2020, with daily deaths reaching an estimated peak of over 1,000 people per day by late June.
Nurses wearing protective face masks participate in a protest with signs bearing the names of health care professionals who died from coronavirus in Brasilia, Brazil, on May 12, 2020. REUTERS/Adriano Machado
Additionally, IHME estimates that daily new cases of COVID-19 in Brazil will reach more than 200,000 by June 1. To date, according to IHME’s COVID-19 projections, the pandemic has already caused almost 16,000 deaths in Brazil. Note, however, that these estimates are only inclusive of eight Brazilian states, and will fluctuate as additional data and territories are added to IHME’s model. True national estimates of COVID-19’s impact on Brazil are likely higher. This paints a sober picture of the country’s future, and underscores the need for decision-makers to mitigate the pandemic’s effect.
More:
https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/estimating-latin-wave-coronavirus