Economy
Related: About this forumSTOCK MARKET WATCH - Friday, 6 January 2012
[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday, 6 January 2012[/font]
SMW for 5 January 2012
AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 5 January 2012
[center][font color=red]
Dow Jones 12,415.70 -2.72 (-0.02%)
[font color=green]S&P 500 1,281.06 +3.76 (0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,669.86 +21.50 (0.81%)
[font color=red]10 Year 1.99% -0.01 (-0.50%)
[font color=green]30 Year 3.06% +0.01 (0.33%)
[center][/font]
[HR width=85%]
[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
[center]
[/center]
[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]
[/center]
[/center]
[HR width=95%]
[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
[center]
Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
[/center]
[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
[center]
The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
[/center]
[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
[center]
LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
[/center][font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
[center]
Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
[/center]
[div]
Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = [/font][font color=red]12[/font]
[HR width=95%]
[center]
[/center]
[HR width=95%]
[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font]
Tansy_Gold
(17,815 posts)Last edited Thu Jan 5, 2012, 10:14 PM - Edit history (1)
I don't think I'd ever encountered cartoonist Drew Sheneman before picking out yesterday's 'toon. And not to give short shrift to the other great cartoonists out there, but these are vicious in a way my current attitude is appreciating.
For more --
http://www.usnews.com/cartoons/republican-party-cartoons
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)Anger, frustration, pessimism about the state of the economy and what is controlling it, for a long time now.
Beginning to understand why Sampson pulled down the pillars to the temple.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)DemReadingDU
(16,000 posts)Thanks for finding these!
Warpy
(110,900 posts)Although he's not quite as consistently acidic as Danziger or Mr. Fish, he's certainly getting there.
Editorial cartoonists are some of our best friends. I know too many people who stop to look at the cartoon every day on the way to the sports page and classifieds but who would never bother to read one of the editorials.
Good cartoonists say it all quickly and visually. Great cartoonists make people start to get angry and for that, they're worth their weight in gold.
My high school American History teacher, Miss Doris L. Black, among her other eccentricities collected the political cartoons from the front page of the Chicago Tribune. Her teaching career ranged from the late 1920s or early 1930s to her retirement in 1967. She had kept every one of those cartoons carefully filed and indexed for all those years and would bring in relevant ones when her classes reached the appropriate stage in the year's studies.
I have no idea what her politics were, nor do I know if she had others besides the Trib.
It's weird what one remembers. . . .
CatholicEdHead
(9,740 posts)The empty space is the one on the far left. Democrats and ex-Republicans fill in the right to center left spectrum then it is empty.
Tansy_Gold
(17,815 posts)I thought the same thing, so as soon as I saw your post I knew EXACTLY what you were talking about! GMTA.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)...The best way to measure a nations merit-based status is to look at its intergenerational economic mobility: Do children move up and down the economic ladder based on their own abilities, or does their economic standing simply replicate their parents? Sadly, as the American middle class has thinned out over recent decades, the idea of America as the land of opportunity has become a farce. As a paper by Julia Isaacs of the Brookings Institution has shown, sons earnings approximate those of their fathers about three times more frequently in the United States than they do in Denmark, Norway and Finland, and about 11/2 times more frequently than they do in Germany. The European social democracies where taxes, entitlements and the rate of unionization greatly exceed Americas are demonstrably more merit-based than the United States...Thats hardly the only measure by which Europes social democracies demonstrate more dynamism than our increasingly sclerotic plutocracy. Unemployment rates in Northern European nations as of October, Germanys unemployment rate was 6.5 percent; the Netherlands, 4.8 percent; Sweden 7.4 percent are substantially lower than ours (9 percent then). Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Germany in particular have sizable trade surpluses, while the United States runs the largest trade deficits in human history....There are, of course, a multitude of reasons the nations of Northern Europe are outperforming us. But if entitlements and social democracy were anywhere near the impediments to enterprise that Romney claims, Germany would hardly be the most successful economy in the advanced industrial world, with those of Scandinavia close behind.
The secrets of social democracys successes are in plain view. In Scandinavia, government commitment to worker retraining and job relocation mean that there is no major political pressure to keep failing firms in business; its a policy that favors innovative start-ups. In Germany, management and unions cooperate to upgrade their products and their processes partly because corporate boards consist of equal numbers of management and worker representatives. Germanys surge in exports may be partly attributable to its union workers agreeing to hold their wages flat (at levels still well above those of their U.S. counterparts). But their workers willingness to sacrifice in order to stay competitive is surely increased by the fact that their CEOs on average make just 11 times as much as their workers. In the United States, chief executives make roughly 200 to 300 times (choose your survey) as much as their average employees salary.
Which brings us back to Romneys characterization of our country as a merit-based society and his failure to notice the huge changes in economic rewards over the past three decades. During the 30 years after World War II, the average American familys income doubled, while chief executives income was restrained, increasing by less than 1 percent annually, according to a 2010 paper by economists Carola Frydman and Raven Saks. Beginning around 1980, however, as unions were smashed, industry moved offshore and executive pay skyrocketed, the incomes of most Americans began to flatten or decline, while financiers and corporate leaders were able to claim more and more of the nations income for themselves. Corporate leaders have been rewarded with huge payouts even when their corporations performance has been disappointing. Conversely, millions of Americans have maintained or upgraded their skills yet seen their jobs shipped abroad or downgraded. Is this a description of a merit-based society? How does it compare with that of mid-century America, when the rewards for work were distributed more broadly?
Romney and his Bain Capital buddies may view their wealth as the just rewards endemic to successful people in a merit-based society. But why are so few Americans sharing in those rewards today while so many Americans shared in them 40 years ago? Are most Americans no longer meritorious? Or has our country ceased to reward any but the rich and powerful?
Demeter
(85,373 posts)...many researchers have reached a conclusion that turns conventional wisdom on its head: Americans enjoy less economic mobility than their peers in Canada and much of Western Europe. The mobility gap has been widely discussed in academic circles, but a sour season of mass unemployment and street protests has moved the discussion toward center stage. Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, a Republican candidate for president, warned this fall that movement up into the middle income is actually greater, the mobility in Europe, than it is in America. National Review, a conservative thought leader, wrote that most Western European and English-speaking nations have higher rates of mobility. Even Representative Paul D. Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican who argues that overall mobility remains high, recently wrote that mobility from the very bottom up is where the United States lags behind. Liberal commentators have long emphasized class, but the attention on the right is largely new...Its becoming conventional wisdom that the U.S. does not have as much mobility as most other advanced countries, said Isabel V. Sawhill, an economist at the Brookings Institution. I dont think youll find too many people who will argue with that.
One reason for the mobility gap may be the depth of American poverty, which leaves poor children starting especially far behind. Another may be the unusually large premiums that American employers pay for college degrees. Since children generally follow their parents educational trajectory, that premium increases the importance of family background and stymies people with less schooling.
At least five large studies in recent years have found the United States to be less mobile than comparable nations. A project led by Markus Jantti, an economist at a Swedish university, found that 42 percent of American men raised in the bottom fifth of incomes stay there as adults. That shows a level of persistent disadvantage much higher than in Denmark (25 percent) and Britain (30 percent) a country famous for its class constraints. Meanwhile, just 8 percent of American men at the bottom rose to the top fifth. That compares with 12 percent of the British and 14 percent of the Danes. Despite frequent references to the United States as a classless society, about 62 percent of Americans (male and female) raised in the top fifth of incomes stay in the top two-fifths, according to research by the Economic Mobility Project of the Pew Charitable Trusts. Similarly, 65 percent born in the bottom fifth stay in the bottom two-fifths.
By emphasizing the influence of family background, the studies not only challenge American identity but speak to the debate about inequality. While liberals often complain that the United States has unusually large income gaps, many conservatives have argued that the system is fair because mobility is especially high, too: everyone can climb the ladder. Now the evidence suggests that America is not only less equal, but also less mobile....While Europe differs from the United States in culture and demographics, a more telling comparison may be with Canada, a neighbor with significant ethnic diversity. Miles Corak, an economist at the University of Ottawa, found that just 16 percent of Canadian men raised in the bottom tenth of incomes stayed there as adults, compared with 22 percent of Americans. Similarly, 26 percent of American men raised at the top tenth stayed there, but just 18 percent of Canadians. Family background plays more of a role in the U.S. than in most comparable countries, Professor Corak said in an interview...The income compression in rival countries may also make them seem more mobile. Reihan Salam, a writer for The Daily and National Review Online, has calculated that a Danish family can move from the 10th percentile to the 90th percentile with $45,000 of additional earnings, while an American family would need an additional $93,000. Even by measures of relative mobility, Middle America remains fluid. About 36 percent of Americans raised in the middle fifth move up as adults, while 23 percent stay on the same rung and 41 percent move down, according to Pew research. The stickiness appears at the top and bottom, as affluent families transmit their advantages and poor families stay trapped...The bottom fifth in the U.S. looks very different from the bottom fifth in other countries, said Scott Winship, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, who wrote the article for National Review. Poor Americans have to work their way up from a lower floor.
MUCH MORE AT LINK
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Manhattan apartment sales fell 12 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier as Europes debt crisis and sluggish U.S. job growth dimmed buyer appetites. Purchases of condominiums and co-ops declined to 2,011 from 2,295 in the fourth quarter of 2010, New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said in a joint report today. The median price of units that changed hands in the final three months of 2011 climbed 1.2 percent from a year earlier, to $855,000.
...Financial firms globally disclosed plans in 2011 to eliminate more than 200,000 jobs as they grapple with market turmoil, fallout from Europes sovereign-debt crisis and concerns that U.S. economic growth will slow. Morgan Stanley told regulators last week that it may dismiss 580 employees in New York City as the bank cuts 1,600 jobs. New York Citys unemployment rate was 8.9 percent in November, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month and higher than the national average of 8.6 percent, the state Department of Labor said Dec. 15...
2010 Rush
In the fourth quarter of 2010, sellers were in a rush to complete deals amid concern that capital-gains taxes for top earners would rise on Jan. 1, according to Hall Willkie, president of Brown Harris Stevens. It was our greatest year in history in 2010, Willkie said in an interview. The risk of a tax increase was very much a factor that did not exist in 2011, he said. Corcoran Group said sales tumbled 12 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010, and the median price dropped 5 percent to $795,000. Purchases of luxury apartments, defined as the top 10 percent of all sales by price, declined 13 percent to 201 deals, according to Miller Samuel and Prudential. The median price of those transactions dropped 4.6 percent to $4.15 million. On the Upper East Side, the median price of existing co-ops climbed 4 percent from a year earlier to $840,000, according to Corcoran. Condo prices in the neighborhood were little changed at $940,000. On the Upper West Side, the median price of co-op resales fell 1 percent to $825,000, while existing condo prices dropped 5 percent to $1.1 million.
Loge23
(3,922 posts)So says the kill SS crowd!
Well if I have clean toilets, at least they will be gold-plated.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)...Obama.... will place his personal imprint on a new military strategy that Pentagon officials have been preparing for months in anticipation of the largest cuts to the defense budget since the end of the Cold War. The document will call for a greater shift toward Asia in military planning and a move away from big, expensive wars like Iraq and Afghanistan, which have dominated U.S. operations for most of the past decade, said a senior military official. In particular, the plan calls on the military to invest in weaponry to overcome efforts by potential adversaries such as China to use long-range missiles and sophisticated radar to keep U.S. forces at bay. The strategy is different from past Pentagon reviews in that it establishes clear priorities for the military, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the plan had not been publicly released.
The strategy review will not spell out potential $480 billion to $1 trillion in spending cuts that the Pentagon is facing over the next decade. Details of those reductions will begin to trickle out next month, when the Obama administration releases its proposed federal budget for 2013.
The consequences of those anticipated cuts, however, are already being felt in the defense industry. On Wednesday, Boeing announced that it will shutter a factory in Wichita that produces military airplanes for refueling, an early casualty of what is expected to be a wave of closings among defense contractors....Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Northrop Grumman and other major defense companies have warned that budget reductions could mean the loss of hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs...
Tansy_Gold
(17,815 posts)and have the military start doing things in-house so to speak.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)We have to look forward, not back. All the things that worked before must be discarded for the profits of the 1%. GREED is ALL!!!!!
DemReadingDU
(16,000 posts)Demeter
(85,373 posts)The Federal Reserve has put out a white paper on the housing market.
Theres a lot in there to digest so Ill be picking out points and writing up posts as I go through it.
One point that shows up early on in the Feds analysis is that lenders are hesitating to make home loans even when they face no credit risk because the loans are eligible for guarantees from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Why arent banks making these safe loans? The Fed cites three reasons: 1) mortgage servicing costs in the post-robo signing era, 2) uncertainty over the capital treatment mortgages will get under Basel III, and 3) the put-back lawsuits filed by the GSE.
MORE
Demeter
(85,373 posts)The National Union of Israeli Students (NUIS) has become a full-time partner in the Israeli governments efforts to spread its propaganda online and on college campuses around the world. NUIS has launched a program to pay Israeli university students $2,000 to spread pro-Israel propaganda online for 5 hours per week from the comfort of home. The union is also partnering with Israels Jewish Agency to send Israeli students as missionaries to spread propaganda in other countries, for which they will also receive a stipend. This active recruitment of Israeli students is part of Israels orchestrated effort to suppress the Palestinian solidarity movement under the guise of combating delegitimization of Israel and anti-Semitism. The involvement of the official Israeli student union as well as Haifa University, Tel Aviv University, Ben-Gurion University and Sapir College in these state propaganda programs will likely bolster Palestinian calls for the international boycott of Israeli academic institutions...
The NUIS program document explains:
What is completely missing from the program is any indication that criticism of Israel could be valid. Rather the National Union of Israeli Students apparently seeks to indoctrinate Israeli students that every criticism of Israel is hate and anti-Semitism and that the Internet should be seen as a battlefield on which they are foot soldiers...
NUIS has also partnered with the Jewish Agency, the Israeli state body that encourages Jews from around the world to settle on stolen Palestinian land, to spread propaganda on college campuses around the world. The Jewish Agency website announces, as translated from Hebrew by Dena Shunra for The Electronic Intifada:
Every year the Jewish Agency of Israel sends approximately 150 emissaries to various places around the world - North America, England, South Africa, Australia, Germany, Italy and South America, who engage in Jewish education and hasbara in three main streams - Hillel emissaries (to campuses around North America), community emissaries and youth movement emissaries.
Training for these overseas missions for successful applicants will take place at Haifa University, Tel Aviv University, Ben-Gurion University and Sapir College, after which the would-be missionaries will set off for a one-year mission in the various Jewish communities around the world, and will also receive a scholarship of up to NIS 5,000 ($1300).
Applications are open to Israeli citizens who have lived in the country for three years, those who have completed service in the Israeli army, and those who speak foreign languages, among other criteria.
Hotler
(11,353 posts)Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)HONG KONG, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Shanghai shares rose on Friday but posted their ninth-straight weekly loss on concerns about China's cooling economy, while Hong Kong stocks fell more than 1 percent and looked set for further losses as traders eyed Europe's festering debt crisis.
"There were some rumors in the mainland about a cut in reserve requirements this weekend, but even if it were true, the cut would only serve to increase short-term liquidity before the Chinese New Year," said Alan Lam, Julius Baer's Greater China equity analyst.
Tight money supply conditions in China prompted the country's central bank to suspend bill sales until after the end of the Lunar New Year in late January and would also conduct reverse repo business to help inject money into the market if necessary.
The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.2 percent at 18,593.06 points, while the China Enterprises Index lost 1.5 percent. On the week, they eked out gains of 0.9 and 0.5 percent, respectively, largely due to strength in Chinese oil stocks as worries about Iranian supplies sent crude prices higher.
The Shanghai Composite Index ended 0.7 percent higher at 2,163.39 after briefing testing 2,133 in early afternoon trade, but gains came in weak turnover. The index lost 1.6 percent on the week, putting it on track for its longest weekly losing streak since August-September 2008, and plumbed 34-month lows.
/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/06/markets-hongkong-china-stocks-update-idUKL3E8C63YI20120106
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)BEIJING - China's business climate index, a major measure of the macro-economic outlook, continued to fall in the fourth quarter of 2011, and entrepreneur confidence further weakened over the previous quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Friday.
The quarterly business climate index, based on a survey of about 20,000 Chinese firms, dropped 5.2 points from the previous quarter to 128.2 in the fourth quarter, the NBS said in a statement on its website. The index ranges from zero to 200. A reading above 100 shows economic expansion, while a reading below 100 indicates contraction.
Meanwhile, the entrepreneur confidence index, a gauge of the views and opinions of the country's entrepreneurs, fell 7.4 points to 122 in the last quarter of 2011, the NBS said.
The business climate index for the real estate sector declined for four consecutive quarters, dropping sharply by 12.2 points to 107.2 in the October-December period as the government stepped up efforts to rein in soaring housing prices and crack down on speculation. Entrepreneur confidence in the real estate sector slid for seven consecutive quarters, plunging 18.4 points to 81.5 in the fourth quarter after falling below the boom-or-bust line of 100 in the third quarter of 2011.
/.. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2012-01/06/content_14396091.htm
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)President Obamas decision to refocus U.S. strategy on the Western Pacific is timely and appealing. Allies in East Asia have been clamoring for a renewal of U.S. military commitments there as China builds up its military capabilities and presses territorial claims against neighbors. Meanwhile, U.S. voters have become disenchanted with a seemingly endless land war in Afghanistan that offers little hope of clear-cut victory. A strategic shift to the Pacific stressing air and naval power over boots on the ground will be welcomed both at home and abroad.
However, there are three big obstacles to implementing the strategic shift. First, China has an intrinsic geographical advantage in dominating the new heartland of the global economy, because it is on its home turf and America is operating many thousands of miles from home. Second, Chinas growing regional influence is fueled by its fast-growing economy, which the International Monetary Fund predicts will surpass the U.S. in purchasing power within a few years...
... In order to understand why this is so, it is essential to grasp the divergence in U.S. and Chinese economic performances since the beginning of the new millennium. When President George W. Bush took office in 2001, the Chinese economy was only a third the size of Americas, even though it had four times as many people. America accounted for a third of global economic output and a third of global military spending. Its exports were three times greater than those of China.
But China joined the World Trade Organization that same year, and over the next decade a combination of greater access to foreign markets and unrestrained mercantilism enabled it to grow at a 10 percent annual rate. Meanwhile, America stumbled through ten years of economic stagnation. Its share of global economic output fell from 32 percent to 24 percent and its trade deficit grew to over two billion dollars per day during President Bushs last year in office. Bushs Reaganesque mix of tax cuts, deregulation and free trade failed to produce the strong economic performance seen in previous decades.
The stage was thus set for Chinas rise and Obamas election...
/more... http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2012/01/05/why-chinas-growth-is-slowing/
Notice how this writer treats as a given the idea that US military operations are of course required somewhere around the globe, whatever the consequences, since the MIC which supports his media bosses must be fed and watered. And so the brainwash is spread, while the vampire squid, playing all sides against the middle, tightens its suffocating embrace.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Who cares if the supply lines are 10,000 miles or more? When the privateering contractors deliver, they get paid by the mile for their troubles!
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)TOKYO, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average lost 1 percent on Friday as the euro zone debt crisis weighed on sentiment, countering higher expectations for an improving U.S. labour market after recent data signalling a more resilient U.S. economy.
Shoji Hirakawa, chief strategist at UBS, said the impact of the euro's weakness on Japanese exporters' earnings was relatively small as the region accounts for only 5-10 percent of their total sales and profits, but it hurt market sentiment...
... Investors will be eyeing U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, due out at 1330 GMT, for further clarity on the state of the U.S. economy. Economists in a Reuters survey forecast 150,000 jobs were created last month, up from 120,000 new jobs in November.
Data on Thursday showed U.S. private employers added 325,000 jobs in December, more than double the figure economists had expected.
/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/06/markets-japan-stocks-idUKL3E8C60RL20120106
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)LONDON (Reuters) - The euro was under pressure and safe-haven assets in demand on Friday on signs that fallout from the euro zone's debt crisis is hitting its banks, but hopes U.S. jobs data later in the day would brighten the economic outlook lifted stocks.
The euro was down slightly on the day versus the dollar at $1.2776, having dropped as low as $1.2763, its weakest since September 2010 It was also a 16-month lows against the British pound and near an 11-year low versus the yen...
... Fears over the outlook for the single currency region's banks have grown since Italy's UniCredit was forced to offer deep price discounts to sell new shares to shore up its crisis ravaged balance sheet.
UniCredit stock has fallen around 30 percent in the previous two sessions and opened on Friday down about 5 percent, while the STOXX Europe 600 banking index has dropped about 5 percent in the same period.
The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares rose nearly 0.5 percent in low volumes ahead of the U.S. jobs data. Banking stock rose 0.15 percent.
/... http://in.news.yahoo.com/debt-woes-hit-euro-european-stocks-firm-085236498.html
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The euro zone's economy deepened its downturn at the end of 2011 as retail sales fell and sentiment soured, but the first improvement in the business climate in 10 months offered hope that an expected recession may be mild.
Euro zone retail trade fell a worse-than-expected 0.8 percent in November from October, data from the European Union's statistics office Eurostat showed on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.2 percent monthly fall.
Pointing to the cautiousness of European households, the European Commission said that in December, consumer confidence fell 0.7 points in the 17 countries sharing the single currency.
In its overall reading of economic sentiment in the euro zone, the Commission said its indicator fell 0.5 points to 93.3.
High unemployment is afflicting the euro zone, hurting consumers, and Eurostat said the bloc's joblessness rate was 10.3 percent of the working population in November, the same as October and up slightly from a year ago, when it was 10 percent.
/... http://www.courant.com/business/sns-rt-us-eurozonetre8050gb-20120106,0,3291748.story
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)Last edited Fri Jan 6, 2012, 07:56 AM - Edit history (1)
VIENNA (dpa-AFX) - European Central Bank Governing Council member Athanasios Orphanides urged European leaders to reverse the policy of haircut on Greek debt in order to restore investor confidence.
'Reversing the Greek PSI -Private sector involvement- decision would help to restore trust,' Orphanides, who also heads the central bank of Cyprus, wrote in the Financial Times.
Abandoning the Greek PSI decision would also raise the financing cost on the Greek government, but by restoring trust in the Eurozone it would reduce the financing cost of other Eurozone governments, he opined. 'Reversing the Greek PSI would benefit the Eurozone as a whole.'...
... Europe failed to regain investor trust despite reversing the Deauville PSI innovation, as the December summit did not reverse the haircut on Greek debt. Rather, the Eurozone leaders supported continuing the Greek PSI while stating that the Greek case was unique and would not be repeated, he said.
/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2012-01/22367527-ecb-s-orphanides-urges-europe-to-reverse-greek-debt-haircut-plan-020.htm
In other words, make 'those stupid people who actually pay their taxes' pay instead. Screw yet more austerity out of them, and ramp up the police state while we're at it. Sound like a psychopath to you? Certainly quacks like a duck.
Reuters Breakingviews video: http://www.reuters.com/video/2012/01/06/greece-needs-bonfire-of-the-bondholders?videoId=228048377&videoChannel=5
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)LONDON Jan 6 (Reuters) - Gains from market heavyweight Vodafone and stronger banks and commodity stocks helped drag Britain's top share index higher on Friday, although gains were capped by some caution ahead of a key U.S. jobs report, and a big batch of euro zone data.
At 0926 GMT, the FTSE 100 index was up 12.09 points, or 0.2 percent at 5,636.35, recovering after a 0.8 percent fall on Thursday, albeit in low volumes at just under 10 percent of the 90-day moving average...
... Euro zone December ecconomic, industrial, and services confidence data, together with November retail sales and unemployment numbers will all be released at 1000 GMT.
Domestic British banks rallied after recent falls on fears over recapitalisation moves by European lenders exposed to the euro zone debt crisis, with part-state-owned Lloyds Banking Group in the vanguard, up 1.3 percent.
Integrated oils provided a big boost for the FTSE 100 index as Brent crude prices extended recent gains on worries over a demand squeeze amid mounting tensions between Iran and the West.
/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/06/markets-britain-stocks-idUKL6E8C607W20120106
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)LONDON (dpa-AFX) - U.K. house prices declined 0.9 percent in December from a month ago, survey data released by the Lloyds Banking Group's Halifax division revealed Friday. In 2011, house prices showed a very mixed monthly picture with six monthly falls, five increases and one month of unchanged prices.
In the fourth quarter, house prices were 0.1 percent lower than in the prior quarter, compared to a 0.1 percent rise in the third quarter...
... The economist expects broad stability in house prices in 2012 if the economy avoids recession. But there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the prospects for the UK economy.
/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2012-01/22367214-u-k-house-prices-fall-in-december-020.htm
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)LONDON (dpa-AFX) - New car registrations in the U.K. declined 4.4 percent in 2011 from the previous year, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said Friday.
The number of units sold last year totaled 1.94 million, higher than 1.92 million forecast by the industry group.
Registrations in December fell 3.7 percent year-on-year to 119,188 units, marking the tenth monthly decline in the year. However, the sales volume was again ahead of SMMT's forecast. Sales were down 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter...
... Registrations in 2011 were supported by fleet sales, with the private market recording a drop in volumes. Diesel and alternatively-fuelled cars both took record shares of the market in 2011, with diesel volumes surpassing petrol volumes for the first time, the report said.
/... http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2012-01/22367751-uk-2011-new-car-sales-drop-4-4-still-exceeds-forecast-020.htm
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)(Reuters) - Iran faced the prospect of cutbacks in its oil sales to China and Japan as new measures to block Tehran's crude exports over its nuclear programme appeared to be driving its economy to the wall...
... Iran is two months from a parliamentary election, the country's first since a disputed presidential vote in 2009 led to massive public demonstrations across the country. The authorities put those protests down by force, but since then the Arab Spring has revealed the vulnerability of authoritarian governments in the region to public anger driven by economic hardship.
Iran's leaders have responded to the sanctions with military sabre-rattling, including a threat to blockade the Middle East's oil by shutting the Strait of Hormuz that leads to the Gulf, and even challenging a U.S. aircraft carrier if it sails the strait.
Washington says it will sail the strait at will and will guarantee free passage through the international waterway. Britain on Thursday signalled its readiness to use military force if necessary to keep the strait open, warning Iran not to miscalculate over the West's determination to stop disruption.
/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/06/uk-iran-idUKL6E8C53PL20120106
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)... Turkey, unfortunately, has got a lot to lose if its forced to cut economic relations, above all energy ties, with its neighbor. Bilateral trade between the two countries rose to $15 billion in the first 11 months of 2011, according to a recent IRNA report. And most of this trade is about feeding the energy appetite of Turkey. Nearly 20 percent of Turkeys natural gas is imported from Iran. Annual gas imports from Iran total around 10 billion cubic meters, and according to a 1996 agreement, such imports will continue until 2021...
... Theres a possibility that Tüpraş imports could receive a waiver from Washington, but for that, the Obama administration should be convinced that Turkey has minimized other economic ties with Iran. The Hürriyet Daily News on Jan. 5 reported that an Energy Ministry official paid a visit to the U.S. Embassy in Ankara, seeking to understand details of the new sanctions. If the U.S. succeeds in persuading Turkey, the latter could well face huge losses while further antagonizing a neighbor whos already rattled due to the NATO radar system thats been installed in the eastern province of Malatya.
Of course, one should not forget the swelling tab from the freeze in ties with Syria and the de facto loss of Libyas construction sector.
One remembers the bill that Turkey was forced to pay after the 1990 Gulf War. In a report released before the 2003 Iraq invasion, the Turkish-Iraqi Business Council had estimated a $100 billion loss incurred just between 1990 and 2003.
Turkish policymakers are striving hard to turn the Arab Spring into their advantage. But the outlook increasingly reminds us of an old Turkish proverb about losing the wheat at home while looking for rice from Damietta - an Egyptian port city.
/more... http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/iran-sanctions-bode-ill-for-turkeys-economy-.aspx?pageID=238&nid=10840&NewsCatID=427
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Oil headed for a weekly gain in New York on signs that the U.S. economic recovery is gaining momentum and concern that tensions with Iran may lead to a disruption in Middle East exports.
West Texas Intermediate futures have advanced 3.4 percent this week. Hiring in the U.S. probably accelerated in December for a second month, pointing to a strengthening labor market heading into 2012, economists said before a report today. The European Union is working to halt oil purchases from Iran, said Victoria Nuland, a U.S. State Department spokeswoman. European foreign ministers aim to announce harsher penalties on the Persian Gulf nations energy and banking industries at a meeting Jan. 30, according to EU spokesman Michael Mann.
The recent string of better-than-expected macroeconomic indicators from the U.S. has rebuilt some of the optimism and risk appetite, said Thina Saltvedt, an analyst at Nordea Bank AB in Oslo. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which would have an immense effect on the global oil market.
Crude for February delivery was at $102.18 at 8:36 a.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract fell $1.41 to $101.81, the lowest settlement this week. Prices gained 8.2 percent in 2011.
Brent oil for February settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange rose 0.5 percent, to $111.31 a barrel. The European benchmark contract was at a $11.06 premium to New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude. The spread was a record $27.88 on Oct. 14. Brents premium has widened from $7.93 a barrel on Dec. 27 amid heightened tension over sanctions aimed at curbing Irans nuclear program. The country, the third-largest oil exporter globally, has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a transit route for a fifth of the worlds oil.
/... http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-06/oil-heading-for-weekly-gain-on-u-s-economy-iranian-tensions.html
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Since 2010 a group of self-confessed pirates have tried to get their beliefs recognized as an official religion in Sweden. After their request was denied several times, the Church of Kopimism which holds CTRL+C and CTRL+V as sacred symbols is now approved by the authorities as an official religion. The Church hopes that its official status will remove the legal stigma that surrounds file-sharing.
All around the world file-sharers are being chased by anti-piracy outfits and the authorities, and the situation in Sweden is no different. While copyright holders are often quick to label file-sharers as pirates, there is a large group of people who actually consider copying to be a sacred act. Philosophy student Isak Gerson is such a religious file-sharer, and in an attempt to protect his unique belief system he founded The Missionary Church of Kopimism in 2010. In the hope that they could help prevent persecution for their beliefs, the Church then filed a request to be officially accepted by the authorities. After two failed attempts, where the Church was asked to formalize its way of praying or meditation, the authorities finally recognized the organization as an official religion. The Churchs founder is ecstatic about this news, and hopes that it will motivate more people to come forward as Kopimists.
I MUST BE A CHARTER MEMBER!
Although the formal status of the Church doesnt mean that copyright infringement is now permitted, the Churchs founder hopes that their beliefs will be considered in future lawmaking.
During the last half year the Missionary Church of Kopimism tripled its members from 1,000 to 3,000 and its expected that the recent news will cause another surge in followers. Official member or not, Gerson encourages everyone with an Internet connection to keep on sharing. We confessional Kopimists have not only depended on each other in this struggle, but on everyone who is copying information. To everyone with an internet connection: Keep copying. Maintain hardline Kopimi, Gerson concludes.
Prospective followers who embrace the same calling are of course welcome to join the movement, free of charge:
http://kopimistsamfundet.se/join-the-movement/
THANK KOPIMI I CAN READ SWEDISH! IT MUST BE FATE!
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)of being a Swedish Religious Organization, domestically, in the Nordic Zone and EU, and internationally??
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)from the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster to ....
what is it again???
ah..Kopimism...
I am feeling very ...kopimistic today.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)One point that I have been shouting from the proverbial roof tops in my research, to partners and colleagues is that 2012 may well be the year when all major central banks will be conducting both conventional and unconventional monetary easing at the same time. I think this is a very strong testament not only to the severity of the ongoing debt crisis in the developed world, but also to the propensity of central banks to choose inflation as the desired route to recovery. We need not initially discuss whether they are deploying the proper set of policies or even whether such policies represent moral hazard or a Ponzi scheme on government debt. The main thing is to realise that this is an unprecedented global monetary experiment.
My message to investors in 2012 would then be not to underestimate this inflation bias by part of global central banks. Inflating your way out of too much debt wont work in the long run without considerable defaults and/or economic stress (hyper inflation). Events since 2008 are ample evidence of this, but the simultaneous inclination to create inflation and debase your currency (to generate more inflation and exports) by all major central banks will continue to exert a profound effect on asset prices and the global economy...In so far as goes the idea that an investors interest in asset prices is conditioned on return and volatility we can say that central bank policy will affect both. Financial assets will certainly benefit from excess liquidity, but the unravelling of too much debt through inevitable defaults and the central bank policies themselves will generate volatility. Whether the combination of such volatility and return means that you should stay out of the market entirely is a question for the individual investor. I believe that from a macroeconomic point of view, the downbeat assessment remains, however that it is difficult if not impossible to paint a picture of where sufficient growth is going to come from and on the investment side of things, the higher level of volatility will tend to shake the foundation of investors even if money is to be made for short periods of time...
750 Billion USD, and counting
Europe remains the center of the global debt crisis, a role the continent has now decisively taken over from the US, which stood at the forefront in the initial phases of the crisis in 2008. Apart from the almost endless summits and meetings among government officials, the significant measures continue to be the ones coming from the ECB. In my view, the European interbank market is virtually dead and dusted, and the ECB and the Fed are now effectively the only thing between Europes banks and large scale failures. Since early September 750 billion USD worth of liquidity has been provided to the European banking system of which 100 billion sits on the Fed balance sheet through USD swap lines.
Who will bet against the final 3y LTRO auction to take this beyond one trillion USD?
Spanish and Italian curves are now nicely steep again after a brush with inversion which obviously was one of the main objectives even if it was always debatable whether banks would buy government bonds with the liquidity taken up at the ECB. The question is; how do you unwind all this? 750 billion USD to roll short term liabilities with the ECB and the Fed seems to me to be one of the biggest gamble in monetary history. While the BOE and the Fed have been transparent in their QE efforts and the BOJ never really having left the zero bound, the ECB has been more covert. However, it is my contention that with the expansion of the securities market programme (SMP) in 2011 to buy considerable amounts of government bonds (1) as well as the 3y LTRO the ECB is now fully engaged in quantitative easing...I think that the ECB will be forced into a much more direct and active role where unsterilized purchases in the primary market (monetisation) will be needed, but I fully appreciate the political issues. We are currently in a delicate situation where new governments in most of the involved countries are saddled with forced mandates to impose austerity. It is very difficult for all parties involved to push this agenda if the ECB had stepped up a full backstop. Moral hazard risks are consequently paramount here...The problems look ominous for European banks and the global financial system in general. No matter what, European financial institutions will have to delever significantly which will spread its tentacles wide and far due to the high penetration by European banks in emerging markets (Eastern Europe in particular)....Well the Euro fix is in. Whether it works that is another question. But the fix is this: European banks can borrow unlimited amounts for three years to buy Euro government debt. The debt often yields 5 percent. The money costs 1 percent...The flip side of this is that most of the liquidity taken up by banks go straight back to the ECB at the deposit facility which is now standing higher than at any time between 2008 and 2010...In conclusion, it is my view that the ECB is now the only thing between the economy and widespread bank failures, but I also concur that the consequence of this is a permanent outsourcing of the interbank market in Europe to the ECBs balance sheet and, quite possibly, Feds USD swap lines.
*************************************************************************************
About Claus Vistesen
Claus Vistesen is a Danish economist who specialises in macroeconomics. His primary research interests include demographics, macroeconomics and international finance.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)If an individual was elected president and was determined to radically scale back the federal drug war, she or he could. This is not some crazy theory; it is a simple fact based on the actual design of our drug laws. Dramatically curtailing the federal drug war can be done as an action of the executive branch without needing the approval of Congress.
You can read the relevant provisions of the law here.
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/21/811.html
What this means is that written into our drug laws is a mechanism for the executive branch without Congressional involvement to move drugs to a lower schedule of oversight or remove them from federal control all together. It is not uncommon or unusual for the relevant executive agencies to use this power to change the scheduling of different controlled substances.
A determined president (example: Ron Paul) could instruct the relevant executive agencies to take the step necessary to remove any drug (example: marijuana) from federal scheduling or reduce it to the lowest schedule, making it legal to purchase the drug over the counter without a prescription. Such a move would make a drug legal under federal law.
Ending the federal drug war, or at least radically scaling back the drug war, is one of those issues where the president has very broad legal authority to take significant unilateral action....
Demeter
(85,373 posts)H.R. 3166: Enemy Expatriation Act
To add engaging in or supporting hostilities against the United States to the list of acts for which United States nationals would lose their nationality
Sponsored by Rep. Charles Dent [R-PA15]. Co-sponsored by Jason Altmire [D-PA4], Robert Latta [R-OH5], and Frank Wolf [R-VA10]
This is the American version of the law banning anti-Soviet activities.
UPDATE: The senate version is S.1698 sponsored by, you guessed it, Joe Lieberman, and co-sponsored by Scott Brown. So if Elizabeth Warren wants to stake out a position as being pro-First Amendment, this would be a good opportunity to do that.
AnneD
(15,774 posts)I have my tribal roll card so I can prove my right to be on this land superceeds any claim from the US government.....I guess that means the rest of you can be deported to your nation of origin. Good luck with that.
Anne D...proud citizen of the sovereign Cherokee Nation.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Not yet, it's not gentrified enough!
AnneD
(15,774 posts)be going back to Poland or some place like that?
Demeter
(85,373 posts)And what about the Kid and her little sister? Half Polish, half Finn. They'd go back to New Hampshire...a fate worse than death, IMO. Especially with the primary coming up.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Congressional investigators are stepping up their inquiry into how deeply credit-rating companies examined the disastrous bet that sank MF Global Holdings Ltd. and whether the firms overlooked crucial information in their evaluations, according to people familiar with the matter. The chairman of the House Financial Services subcommittee on oversight and investigations sent letters to Moody's Corp. Chief Executive Raymond McDaniel and Standard & Poor's Ratings Services President Douglas Peterson seeking detailed information about the firms' procedures for determining MF Global's credit worthiness.
The letters, sent Dec. 27 by Rep. Randy Neugebauer (R., Texas) and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, show investigators are focusing on whether the rating firms missed signals that MF Global was making overly risky bets on European government bonds. The letters indicate that government officials plan to delve deep into the decision-making processes at the rating companies in the months and days leading up to MF Global's demise.
The rating firms played a central role in the events that led to MF Global's sudden downfall. In late October, the firms downgraded MF Global's credit ratings amid rising concerns about the European bet, helping trigger a run on the firm that eventually led to its Oct. 31 bankruptcy filing. In preceding months, however, the firms had awarded MF Global investment-grade ratings.
The House subcommittee has asked Messrs. McDaniel and Peterson to testify in a new round of hearings on MF Global's demise, people familiar with the matter say. The hearings are expected to take place later this month or in early February...
AnneD
(15,774 posts)blaming the rape victim because she wore a dress (forget the low neckline).
I think it is about time they put the blame where it line and haul these crooks into court!
Demeter
(85,373 posts)I recently did a string of blog posts of the Permanent Editorial Board for the UCC's Report on the enforcement of negotiable mortgage notes. I'm still planning a final installment there, but I came across another document that just floored me in showing... how deeply captured and compromised part of the legal elite is.
The document in quest is section 5.4(c) from the Restatement (2d) of Property...I've never seen anything like this before. The Restatement here is saying that "courts should bend over backwards to make sure that the lender wins no matter how badly the lender has screwed things up." Is it really an accurate restatement of the law to say "lenders win even if they screw up and don't follow the law"? That sure sounds like a Mortgagocracy. I suspect that many ALI members would be pretty shocked to find that's what the Restatement is saying. But it's got the ALI imprimatur on it. I get that the borrower has no right to a windfall, but I can't see why that means that basic principal of agency law should be disregarded and agency relationships implied where they do not exist; the ALI's Restatement (2d) on Agency (sec. 15) is quite clear in stating that an agency relationship requirement mutual consent. It isn't an implied set of fiduciary duties, etc. Current agency is going to be implied from a past course of dealing? What if the scope of that agency varied in the past? Curiously, the Restatement cites NO cases in support of its point.
Let me be clear. I don't think anyone deserves a free house. But a mortgage is a contract, and a background term to that contract is that the foreclosure has to follow the law. That's part of the deal, no different from any other (non-severable), material term. Otherwise, why not allow self-help foreclosures and evictions? I don't think it's too much to say that if you're going to engage in a major financial transaction like making a mortgage loan, you'll be expected to follow the law correctly or not enjoy its benefits. Both lenders and borrowers have to play by the rules. If you don't pay the mortgage and the lender follows the law, you lose your house. But following the proper legal procedure is no less important than the default in a foreclosure; both are equally important requirements. It's not a windfall. It's part of the mortgage contract.
What about the noteholder's "reasonable expectation of security"? There is none, and I don't see how the drafters possibly thought there was one. Just having a note without the security instrument doesn't make you meaningfully secured. The noteholder only has a reasonable expectation of security as long as it retains the security instrument or can prove its terms. If it doesn't, what expectation of security could it reasonably have? ...It's really disturbing to see an ALI product moving so blatantly away from rule of law and towards mortgagocracy. Now the good news is that the Restatement isn't law. But this is a scary sign of how part of the legal elite, which used to fight for rule of law above the rule of monied interests, has been co-opted. More about that whenever I get to my final post on UCC Article 9.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)No capitalist (and I consider myself to be a full-throated one) likes the notion of government intervening in the private sector. But we must recognise the rare moments when deviations from this principle are not only to be tolerated, but welcomed.
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/8P1R88/NJGXLB/SUO9T/97XRF1/U12TBB/XL/t?a1=2012&a2=1&a3=6
NOT BAILOUTS, STEVE BABY...
REGULATIONS!
Demeter
(85,373 posts)The US says countries that reduce their imports from Iran can receive a waiver from possible sanctions for dealing with Tehrans central bank
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/WDI4RR/U12EOF/4VXHZ/QNLCL2/GD3WH1/PJ/t?a1=2012&a2=1&a3=6
I REPEAT, THEY ARE ALL CLINICALLY INSANE--EVERY LAST GOVERNMENT MEMBER OF EVERY LAST GOVERNMENT
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Philipp Hildebrand agreed rules governing SNB executives must be tightened in the wake of the scandal over a forex transaction made by his wife
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/WDI4RR/U12EOF/4VXHZ/QNLCL2/NJBQC1/PJ/t?a1=2012&a2=1&a3=6
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Montis pledges of equity in austerity ring increasingly hollow after a report on parliamentarians salaries and perks fuelled public outrage
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/WDI4RR/U12EOF/4VXHZ/QNLCL2/62Y09N/PJ/t?a1=2012&a2=1&a3=6
Demeter
(85,373 posts)US banks are expected to be able to reduce the principal on mortgages owned by investors as part of a wide-ranging settlement of allegations of foreclosure misdeeds
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/LVA6WW/NJG4FJ/1O51V/97XJXS/EXF5US/VU/t?a1=2012&a2=1&a3=6
Demeter
(85,373 posts)A Boston nonprofit, Boston Community Capital, is teaming up with some financial institutions, in particular Bank of America, in a pilot program that has the effect of writing down mortgages to close to home value. http://www.npr.org/2012/01/02/143601604/in-mortgage-crisis-some-banks-agree-to-cut-losses
BCC says it works with qualifying homeowners and banks to buy underwater homes, either in short sales or at foreclosure, and then sells them back to owners at just above current market value. The nonprofit takes the risk of making the resale and allows those buying back to use their own lender or a mortgage company that BCC works with. See the programs FAQs: http://www.sunhomehelp.org/faq/sun
BCC is playing a gatekeeping role as far as who qualifies (there must be an ability to pay the written-down loan but an inability to pay the original loan). Also, BCC may have better credibility with distressed homeowners than financial institutions such as B of A do. The pilot is supposed to test whether such a program can be run without promoting strategic default, according to the NPR story.
Principal write-down is much needed relief to stabilize the housing market and reduce the lose-lose impact of foreclosure, so this is a pilot worth watching. A concern, however, is whether we can trust any reports that come out about it. There does not seem to be any neutral third-party such as an academic researcher studying what happens in the program. Also, a supposed fact cited in the NPR story is unattributed and highly doubtfulthat 30 percent of private home loan modifications last year involved principal write-down. That certainly wasnt true of the government-sponsored Home Affordable Modification Program, so if true about private modifications, it raises even more questions about the troubled HAMP.
******************************************************************************************
Comments
Principal reduction was included in 8% of all loan modifications by bank servicers in the 3rd quarter of 2011. The breakdown by investor was: Fannie Mae - 0%, Freddie Mac - 0%, FHA/VA - 0%, private investor - 15.3%, bank portfolio - 18.4%. Data are available from the OCC at http://www.occ.treas.gov/publications/publications-by-type/other-publications-reports/index-mortgage-metrics.html . These numbers are for all modifications, HAMP and in-house mods combined. The primary obstacle to deleveraging American homeowners at this point is Edward DeMarco and FHFA.
Posted by: Alan White | January 03, 2012 at 06:40 PM
For every principal reduction the banks do they probably do an equal number of principal additions after tacking on late fees etc that the homeowner built up while in default. One of the few private label investor reports I've seen with loan level data showed 10 modifications in Nov of 2011. 8 had a higher principal after the modification. 1 had 20% knocked off (it was actually an MA loan too) and another about 1% reduced. Adding up the beginning principal of modified loans vs the ending balance the modified loans were reduced by just about 2% or $16,000. That's on a trust currently worth about 140 million. My calculator can't handle the math on how small a percentage that is.
Posted by: Livingin America | January 04, 2012 at 10:41 AM
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Large companies may have as much as $2tn in cash available to spend in 2012, powering a potential surge in share buy-backs and dividend payments
Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/LVA6WW/NJG4FJ/1O51V/97XJXS/PF8SCP/VU/t?a1=2012&a2=1&a3=6
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Wealthy investors plan to increase their allocations to commodities and private companies while decreasing their cash holdings this year, according to a survey released today.
About 48 percent of respondents said they plan to add to commodities investments during 2012 and 55 percent said they intend to make more direct investments in private companies, according to a survey by the Institute for Private Investors. About 45 percent plan to increase real-estate holdings, said IPIs survey of its members, who are families with at least $30 million in investable assets.
Its part of that whole movement toward actually owning real assets, Mindy Rosenthal, executive director of IPI, said in a telephone interview. Theyre looking at going back to the old school way of making money.
The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index (DJUBS) fell 13.4 percent in 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Real estate investment trusts returned 8.1 percent last year, according to the Bloomberg REIT Index (BBREIT) of 129 publicly traded property owners. Most REITs are publicly traded companies that own and operate property including apartments and office buildings.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)IVES SMITH WRITES:
...This move raises the obvious question: why didnt Obama make a recess appointment of Elizabeth Warren, either back in the day when she was the de facto head, or after getting her out of the limelight for a bit (so that the Republicans would be less likely, as turned out to be the case, to engage in procedural gamesmanship to thwart a recess installation)? We had discussed this at the time, but the major reasons seemed to be:
1. Obama was never going to do anything that would seriously ruffle the banks, given that that they are a major source of campaign funds;
2. Even if Obama had a weak moment in which he was tempted to ignore consideration 1 (as in Warren might persuade banks that what was good for consumers might be good for them too), a Warren appointment would be over Geithners dead body, and Obama was and is dependent on Geithner; and
3. Having Warren run for the Scott Brown seat is useful to the Dems (the Dems lacked a really strong alternative in Mass, she pulls money from other Republican campaigns, and she is likely to become a largely non-threatening ornament).
Regardless of the motives, this move proves yet again what Obamas real priorities are, and they aint you and me. Cordray was opportunistic in his anti-bank moves in Ohio and is no substitute for Warren.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)To some readers, the answer to the headline may seem obvious: Yes, American management is clearly worse than it was, say, thirty or fifty years ago, because short-termism is endemic among public companies, and short-termism leads to all sorts of bad outcomes, like underinvestment and accounting gaming. But that analysis is simplistic. Short-termism simply shows that management has adopted "good for them, bad for pretty much everyone else (save maybe their bankster allies)" goals and are pursuing them aggressively.
A comment by John Kay of the Financial Times has the effect of raising much more fundamental questions about the caliber of top managers. Forgive me by starting with a personal anecdote. When I was at McKinsey in the early 1980s, one of my clients was Citibank. The partner on the account asked me to get the organization charts of the major investment banks (commercial banks in those days were desperate to become investment banks and not very good at most of the investment banking businesses they could participate in, like M&A and private placements)...I knew Citis problem was not its organizational structure but its culture, so I dutifully followed orders, got the org charts, and then wrote a presentation that contrasted how investment banks operated versus commercial banks on five major issues. It became a best seller at Citi. More than 20 years later, when I saw the partner who was still at McKinsey, he remarked, You remember that document you wrote on investment banking culture? They are still using some of the slides at Citi. He thought that was a good thing. I thought it was a bad thing. It meant Citi had still not learned the lesson of the presentation.
Now to Kay. His article keys off a new book, Good Strategy/Bad Strategy, by Richard Rumelt at the Anderson School at UCLA. What I found disconcerting was this passage, which effectively says that despite the greatly increased presence of MBAs in the corporate world, business practice has not improved and has maybe even regressed:
If that also sounds obvious, it isnt what business people typically do. In the business world as sometimes in the surgery the reputation of the CEO or value of the consultant is measured not by the accuracy of the diagnosis but by the confidence with which the prescription is dispensed. Many business gurus resemble George Bernard Shaws doctor, Sir Colenso Ridgeon, who treated every ailment with an exhortation to stimulate the phagocytes. Their PowerPoint presentations reiterate the patients complaint and prescribe their universal template.
Now I am big on stating the obvious, that the MBA is an overrated degree. But one of the things that that degree does provide is some commonsensical frameworks and tools. And naive me, I had assumed that the big reason that the big consulting firms like McKinsey were doing less good old fashioned strategy work was that the prevalence of MBAs meant that big companies were now doing more of the analytical work related to strategy in-house. But Kays observations suggest instead that the effect of more professionalized management, perversely, is a greater need to be on the cutting edge of conventional wisdom in order to stand out, which makes them even more susceptible to hucksterism. (THIS IS THE MESSAGE OF DILBERT, BY THE WAY...DEMETER) An alternate interpretation is that the short-termism has promoted faddishness, since any con that is good enough to enlist top managers can also be sold to the great unwashed investing public, and will pop a stock for a while (or even longer: look at how much the market liked reengineering and outsourcing and offshoring). Or maybe prolonged use of PowerPoint makes people stupid.
Loge23
(3,922 posts)The "short-termism" is resposnsibility for this situation, as managers now manage to survive rather than thrive.
There are so many factors responsible for this:
*Education - which is now largely based on achieving satisfactory test scores rather than fostering any meaningful deeply analytical though processes.
*Social - Where it all springs from. We all know about the trophy generation where everyone is a winner but really no one is. This has permeated business as well. Look good, say the right things, and we'll reward you for showing up. Just don't rock the boat with any true "outside of the box" thinking because we don't think, we just do.
*Economic - The value chain has been shortened. It's now about generating generational wealth - one generation at a time. Get yours, and move on. One needs to look no further than Mark Zuckerberg founder of gossip/game (aka social media) site Facebook.
At best, this is a huge billboard site. Mr. Zuckerberg is worth billions.
*Political - It isn't about management of the country or otherwise; it's about survival. We don't engage in the "business of the country (local, state, etc.) - we are engaged in survival. Beat our opponents any way possible. But not is it means constructing a well-built society. That's too much work.
I often wonder how we all did it before computer spreadsheets, PowerPoint(less), cell phones, and email. You can't manage without these toys these days - and that pretty much sums it all up: we don't think, we do.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)YVES SMITH WRITES:
It certainly is gratifying to see the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, via a paper released on Wednesday, The U.S. Housing Market: Current Conditions and Policy Considerations, (hat tip Calculated Risk) finally acknowledge that US has a mortgage/foreclosure mess that is not going to go away by virtue of QE or other efforts to goose financial asset prices. However, just as the Fed was late to see the global housing bubble (even the Economist was on to it in June 2005), so to is it behind the curve in its take on the housing problem. This paper at best constitutes a good start, when, pace Churchill, the Fed is at the end of the beginning when it really needs to be at the beginning of the end...However, before we get to the housing/mortgage market issues, we wanted to focus on a political element of the paper which may be more important that its analytical content. The Fed is openly crossing swords with the FHFA.
The paper has four sections: background, a section on what to do about foreclosed properties that have not been resold (known as REO for real estate owned), borrower remediation efforts, and idea for improving mortgage servicing practices. The REO section is entirely about GSE REO...Although the document is studiedly neutral in its tone, it makes clear in its coded way that it regards the GSE focus on short term loss minimization as destructive (note the Fed is hardly alone in this view). The Fed argues (with some supporting data) that in a lot of cases, converting REOs to rental would be a better policy, although it bizarrely fails to consider the own to rent option of keeping the current borrower in place. The paper is also a bit clueless about the realities of managing rental properties (it seems to fall for the economists default view that at some mythical market clearing price, demand will of course meet supply, when spread out properties, which is what you are likely to have in suburbs and low density areas of cities, does not make for an attractive property management opportunity on anything beyond a modest scale of operation). This Fed paper happens to have been released just as Fannie and Freddie are about to embark on a program of bulk REO sales. Daily Real Estate News in October raised concerns (hat tip reader Mark P):
The article also recounted how Fannie, Freddie and the FHA had accelerated their liquidation of properties in the first three quarters of the year, yet had recovery rates of over 90% of mortgage value. With those results, why the rush for bulk sales, which will clearly be at deeper discounts? Again to the article:
Which raises the question: Why mess with success? This past Aug. 10, the Treasury Department, HUD and the Federal Housing Finance Agency which oversees Fannie and Freddie in conservatorship issued an unusual request for information on how they might sell REOs faster by offering homes in giant bulk sales of $50 million to $1 billion.
The main targets: hedge funds, large institutional investment groups, and real estate companies that have the capital and the national or regional scope and management teams to purchase and handle mass conversions of REOs into rentals, thereby getting REOs off the agencies books much faster than is possible today.
The request produced more than 4,000 responses, which the FHFA has been analyzing for the past two months. So hows it going and whats the timetable?
For starters, officials speaking on background made clear that they recognize the recent efforts of Fannie, Freddie and FHA to reduce their inventories. However, said one official, the three agencies face a tsunami-sized shadow inventory that is now heading their way a combined 1.4 million delinquent loans on their books, at least half of which, they estimate, will end up in foreclosure. Even with heroic efforts, Fannie, Freddie and FHA wont be able to handle that level of REO volume using their current systems of individual sales, directed at owner-occupants and small investors, via realty agent networks. Its that looming wave that is the real focus of the bulk-sale project, officials told me, not the relatively smaller numbers currently in portfolio. On the other hand, they also recognize that flooding local markets across the U.S. with rental conversions of REO would not be productive....In a more recent article, Housing Wire notes that local groups urge that buyers be properly vetted, since negligent new owners could make matters worse:
And what about hedge funds with no management histories?
THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...SEE LINK FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Amar Bhide, a former McKinsey colleague, one-time proprietary trader, and now professor at the Fletcher School, takes a position in the New York Times today that goes well beyond Volcker Rule restrictions. He argues that all financial deposits need to be guaranteed, and as a result, what is done with those deposits needs to be restricted severely.
I could not have said this better myself... read the op ed in full. And circulate it widely. We are past the point of half measure when it comes to banking. SEE NEXT POST
Demeter
(85,373 posts)CENTRAL bankers barely averted a financial panic before Christmas by replacing hundreds of billions of dollars of deposits fleeing European banks. But confidence in the global banking system remains dangerously low. To prevent the next panic, its not enough to rely on emergency actions by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Instead, governments should fully guarantee all bank deposits and impose much tighter restrictions on risk-taking by banks. Banks should be forced to shed activities like derivatives trading that regulators cannot easily examine. The Dodd-Frank financial reform act of 2010 did nothing to secure large deposits and very little to curtail risk-taking by banks. It was a missed opportunity to fix a regulatory effort that goes back nearly 150 years...Before the Civil War, the United States did not have a public currency. Each bank issued its own notes that it promised to redeem with gold and silver. When confidence in banks ebbed, people would rush to exchange notes for coins. If banks ran out of coins, their notes would become worthless.
In 1863, Congress created a uniform, government-issued currency to end panicky redemptions of the notes issued by banks. But it didnt stop bank runs because people began to use bank accounts, instead of paper currency, to store funds and make payments. Now, during panics, depositors would scramble to turn their account balances into government-issued currency (instead of converting bank notes into gold). The establishment of the Fed in 1913 as a lender of last resort that would temporarily replace the cash withdrawn by fleeing depositors was an important advance toward banking stability. But although the Fed could ameliorate the consequences of panics, it couldnt prevent them. The system wasnt stabilized until the 1930s, when the government separated commercial banking from investment banking, tightened bank regulation and created deposit insurance. This system of rules virtually eliminated bank runs and bank failures for decades, but much of it was junked in a deregulatory process that culminated in 1999 with the repeal of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation now covers balances up to a $250,000 limit, but this does nothing to reassure large depositors, whose withdrawals could cause the system to collapse.
In fact, an overwhelming proportion of the quick cash in the global financial system is uninsured and prone to manic-depressive behavior, swinging unpredictably from thoughtless yield-chasing to extreme risk aversion. Much of this flighty cash finds its way into banks through lightly regulated vehicles like certificates of deposits or repurchase agreements. Money market funds, like banks, are a repository for cash, but are uninsured and largely unexamined. Relying on the Fed and other central banks to counter panics is dangerous brinkmanship. A lender of last resort ought not to be a first line of defense. Rather, we need to take away the reason for any depositor to fear losing money through an explicit, comprehensive government guarantee. The government stands behind all paper currency regardless of whose wallet, till or safe it sits in. Why not also make all short-term deposits, which function much like currency, the explicit liability of the government Guaranteeing all bank accounts would pave the way for reinstating interest-rate caps, ending the competition for fickle yield-chasers that helps set off credit booms and busts. (Banks vie with one another to attract wholesale depositors by paying higher rates, and are then impelled to take greater risks to be able to pay the higher rates.) Stringent limits on the activities of banks would be even more crucial. If people thought that losses were likely to be unbearable, guarantees would be useless.
Banks must therefore be restricted to those activities, like making traditional loans and simple hedging operations, that a regulator of average education and intelligence can monitor. If the average examiner cant understand it, it shouldnt be allowed. Giant banks that are mega-receptacles for hot deposits would have to cease opaque activities that regulators cannot realistically examine and that top executives cannot control. Tighter regulation would drastically reduce the assets in money-market mutual funds and even put many out of business. Other, more mysterious denizens of the shadow banking world, from tender option bonds to asset-backed commercial paper, would also shrivel...These radical, 1930s-style measures may seem a pipe dream. But we now have the worst of all worlds: panics, followed by emergency interventions by central banks, and vague but implicit guarantees to lure back deposits. Since the 2008 financial crisis, governments and central bankers have been seriously overstretched. The next time a panic starts, markets may just not believe that the Treasury and Fed have the resources to stop it...Deposit insurance was also a long shot in 1933 President Franklin D. Roosevelt, the Treasury secretary, the comptroller of the currency and the American Bankers Association opposed it. Somehow advocates rallied public opinion. The public mood is no less in favor of radical reform today. Whats missing is bold, thoughtful leadership.
***********************************************
Amar Bhidé, a professor at Tuftss Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, is the author of A Call for Judgment: Sensible Finance for a Dynamic Economy.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) pulled a Scrooge move just before Christmas. The agency published an entry in the Federal Register declaring that it will end its attempt at mandatory restrictions on the use of antibiotics in animal agriculture. The agency isnt advertising the shift, though: This news would have remained a secret if not for Maryn McKennas Superbug blog over at Wired. McKenna, who specializes in writing about antibiotics and their link to pathogens, caught the Federal Register notice...This is a sorry end to a process that began in 1977 (!), but McKenna created an excellent timeline that traces the history of the issue back to the 1950s. In 2009, the Obama administration breathed new life into a moribund process because the top two Obama appointees at the FDA, Commissioner Margaret Hamburg and her then-deputy Joshua Sharfstein, strongly supported restricting antibiotic use in agriculture. But despite Hamburg and Sharfsteins many supportive statements, the FDA has only produced a draft set of voluntary guidelines. And, with this latest announcement, it looks like thats as far as theyre willing to go.
Inaction has consequences: According to the vast majority of microbiologists and public health experts, restrictions on agricultural uses are key to preserving the effectiveness of antibiotics as well as to preventing the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria like MRSA and salmonella Heidelberg (cause of last summers record-breaking ground turkey recall). And its no small dosage: Every year 29 million pounds of antibiotics are given to animals often via their feed. That figure represents 80 percent of all antibiotics used in the U.S.
Consumer groups like the Union of Concerned Scientists and the Pew Charitable Trusts have been calling for an end to the practice for years. But its not just outsiders who are fed up with the agencys work on this issue; the administrations own watchdog group, the Government Accountability Office, recently gave the agency a failing grade in the subject...In many ways, this issue parallels the ongoing battle over BPA, the endocrine-disrupting chemical used in food packaging, plastics, and register receipts. When finally pushed to ban the chemical, the FDA declared that its hands were tied by regulatory hurdles and jurisdictional questions. Yet soon after, the industry lobbying group American Chemical Council responded to consumer anger and petitioned the agency to go ahead and ban BPA. Only then did the FDA indicate it would follow through. In other words, the FDA is admitting that as long as the industry opposes it, the agency cant keep antibiotics out of our meat and dairy products (nor, for that matter, can it ensure that antibiotics will remain effective). Its also admitting it has no real power over the industries it regulates. If the agency continues to favor industrys concerns over the public health, it begs the question: Who exactly is looking out for us?
On the brighter side, several organizations, including the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Center for Science in the Public Interest, and Public Citizen have actually filed a lawsuit against the FDA demanding the agency restrict antibiotics in animals. This is promising, because courts have shown more interest in defending science than the federal agencies (see this example from last year regarding rBST/rBGH in milk). So it may just fall to a federal judge to determine whats truly good for the public interest. Of course, it would be nice if the agency actually tasked with that responsibility would step up to the plate. But I guess thats just too much to ask.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)The number of new prescription drug shortages in 2011 shot up to 267, well above the prior record and about four times the number of medication shortages in the middle of the last decade...Figures just released by the University of Utah Drug Information Service, which tracks national drug shortages, show there were 56 more newly reported drug shortages in the U.S. last year than in 2010, when there were 211. By contrast, there were only 58 drug shortages reported in 2004.
As the drug shortages worsen, so does their impact on patient care, particularly in hospitals. The inability to get crucial medicines has disrupted chemotherapy, surgery and care for patients with infections and pain. At least 15 deaths since 2010 have been blamed on the shortages, which have set a record high in each of the last five years.... Food and Drug Administration has said it has prevented more than 100 new shortages in 2011. That's partly because of an executive order President Obama issued on Oct. 31 to address the shortages, with provisions requiring more manufacturers to report potential shortages in advance to the FDA... many of the current shortages won't be resolved anytime soon, based on reports from several key manufacturers that have had to shut down production because of contamination or other quality problems. For some medicines, there may be only one other manufacturer, which doesn't have the capacity to fill the gap immediately or completely...Most of the drugs in short supply are sterile injected drugs that are the workhorses of hospitals and are normally inexpensive because they've long been available as generics...The FDA says the main reason for the shortages is manufacturing deficiencies leading to production shutdowns. Other reasons include companies ending production of some drugs with tiny profit margins, consolidation in the generic drug industry and limited supplies of some ingredients.
Besides disrupting patient care, the shortages have delayed clinical trials comparing experimental drugs to older ones and have led to unprecedented price gouging, with hospitals sometimes having to pay outrageous markups for scarce drugs. In one case that's among those under investigation by Congress, a vendor outside the normal supply chain offered to sell a hospital a vial of a cancer drug that normally costs about $12 for more than $990....The FDA and several members of Congress have been holding hearings since September to identify reasons for and possible solutions to the shortages.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)You Cannot Make This Up: New Criterion Tells Us We Should Ditch Social Security Because All Minimum Wage Earners Can Become Millionaires
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/01/you-cannot-make-this-up-new-criterion-tells-us-we-should-ditch-social-security-because-all-minimum-wage-earners-can-become-millionaires.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29
People who write for right wing outlets live in an alternative reality. The piece that Michael Thomas pointed out to me from the New Criterion, Future tense, V: Everybody gets rich, by Kevin D. Williamson, belongs in a special category of its own in terms of the degree of disconnect it exhibits...As much as I enjoy shredding articles, this piece has so much wrongheadedness in a compressed space so as to make a full bore exercise of unpacking it a a major exercise. Lets deal with just this part, which is a neat one-two effort to tell us no one need safety nets like Social Security because even people making minimum wage can be rich (and not by creating a business on the side and going public at a big multiple .):
Erm, the worst is I get the strong impression Williamson believes every bloomin word he wrote. I gather no one told him the global financial crisis was the culmination of the ownership society, which was purchased with minimal equity and cheap leverage. Its a broader scale version of Josh Rosners 2001 (!) comment on housing: a home without equity is just a rental with debt....Lets start with the most obvious reason why Williamsons little tale of minimum wage people retiring as millionaires is observed about as often in the real world as unicorns: his fantasy expectation that they save 10% of their incomes. The savings rate for Americans as a whole hasnt been over 10% since 1984 (and it was only rarely above 10% from the beginning of the data series in 1959 through that date. With the exception of 1984, it was strictly a recession phenomenon). It is currently 3.5%.
How exactly do two people earning minimum wage save 10%? Kids are out of the question (although he refers to them), since two incomes and kids necessitates two cars, unless you live in a major city with excellent public transportation. Even if they do manage to save that much intermittently, has he not heard of how short job tenures are? Any job interruption at any income level leads to a depletion of savings. And minimum wage earners dont get meaningful benefits. How are they to pay for anything in the medical category over and above an annual checkup? The Grand Canyon sized hole in this logic is you have to have an entire working career of uninterrupted earnings and nothing bad happening (oh, including a divorce)....
And thats before you get to the barmy investment return assumptions. Williamson is selling the Kool Aid that the crisis proved wrong and Beniot Mandelbrot debunked in his book written for the layperson, The (Mis)Behavior of Markets. In it, Mandelbrot describes how all the standard financial markets models greatly understate risk, leading both professionals and ordinary investors to take on far more risk than they can tolerate. This looked like a brilliant approach from the early 1990s through the early 2000s, since disinflation produced strongly rising asset values. That era is over. 7% returns? Sustained Williamsons mention of the Bush Ownership Society was a major tell. The push to privative SS to help Wall Street earn more fees is on. You can see how this works. Trying to hit return levels that arent attainable with prudent risk assumption means more people will got into hedge funds. Maybe not minimum wage types, but certainly more of the middle class. And that means more fee extraction and more churning...
MORE AT LINK, IF YOU CAN STAND IT
.
That would only be possible if the thieves "overseeing" your money are getting - at least - another 7% on top.
No way, Jose. No way, "O, say".
They will keep on coming after what ever is left out there.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)is the Cause, or the Result, of some insanity in the general culture--like flu bugs in the air circulation system...
Loge23
(3,922 posts)In your post #41, "Is Management Getting Worse", we see more of these symptoms!
Fortuantely, based on this thread, I would say that it's a quite selective infection.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Hugin
(32,778 posts)I won't mention a popular book store near my house shuttered this week.
The serfs to TPTB will claim anything to get their scraps.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)i'm getting ready to do pot roast for a saturday night dinner with friends.
Hotler
(11,353 posts)xchrom
(108,903 posts)lots of onion, celery, carrot, garlic, red wine -- a good, good splash -- low and slow.
my tastes tend toward french cooking -- lots of rich flavors and fatty goodness.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)As a public service, I've collected charts showing all the Republican tax plans to date in one convenient place. (The Tax Policy Center hasn't yet tried to score plans from Santorum, Huntsman, or Paul.) It's really pretty spectacular seeing them all together like this. It's not just the amount of pandering to the super-rich that's so breathtaking, it's the lockstep unanimity. At all costs, every single Republican candidate knows that he has to promise the ultra-wealthy a huge tax break as the price of staying in the race. This, ladies and gentlemen, is the modern Republican Party in a nutshell.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)My God!
Demeter
(85,373 posts)Except I was 12 when she died. Of course, that was puberty....so maybe more like a case of possession?
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Even the Priest wouldn't touch that.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)BRUSSELS (AP) -- The European Commission has criticized Belgium's 2012 budget as too optimistic, indicating that the country has to adopt more austerity measures or risk sanctions.
The country's finance minister quickly reacted to the Commission's intervention, saying Friday that the government was determined to meet its fiscal targets this year.
Belgium has promised to cut its budget deficit to 2.8 percent of economic output this year, from around 3.6 percent in 2011. But the Commission, the European Union's executive, believes the Belgian government won't be able meet this target unless tax revenues or spending cuts are increased.
The Commission's criticism of the budget is a particularly sensitive issue in Belgium, where political parties needed more than one and a half years to set up a government, which was finally sworn in in December.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)BERLIN (AP) -- Industrial orders in Germany dropped sharply in November as demand from abroad dropped - nearly erasing a strong gain from the previous month.
Orders were down 4.8 percent compared to the previous month, the Economy Ministry reported Friday. In October, orders rose 5 percent - a figure that was revised downward from the initial reading of 5.2 percent.
The decline was the largest monthly drop since January 2009 but UniCredit economist Andreas Rees said it was less a "harbinger of a nasty recession" than giving back some ground after October's "tremendous rise."
"There is no reason to get overly concerned about the state of the German economy, or even to become panicky," Rees said. "As a matter of fact, exactly the opposite is true for German industrial companies as indicated by forward-looking sentiment indicators in the last few weeks."
xchrom
(108,903 posts)(Reuters) - A rating downgrade on Friday left Hungary's debt rated "junk" across the board, underscoring investors' doubts about the government's willingness to change its controversial policies in return for aid to stave off a financial crisis.
Fitch Ratings said it was downgrading Hungarian sovereign debt by one notch to BB+ with a negative outlook, putting the country's bonds in the higher risk category and suggesting the investment climate was not going to get any better. Fellow credit rating agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's already rate Hungary below investment grade.
" This) reflects further deterioration in the country's fiscal and external financing environment and growth outlook, caused in part by further unorthodox economic policies which are undermining investor confidence and complicating the agreement of a new IMF/EU deal," Fitch said in a statement.
Hungary's government said it found the move "surprising."
xchrom
(108,903 posts)About 100,000 demonstrators came out the other night around the Opera House, the government palaces and the most elegant avenues of Budapest to protest against the new constitution sought by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and voted through by the two-thirds parliamentary majority of his centre-right party.
They were more numerous than ever before, representing a society numbed by the economic crisis. But, like the Paul Street Boys [the famous 1906 novel by Ferenc Molnár] they were fighting a battle that was already lost. Under the gilt and chandeliers in the Opera House, the government celebrated the establishment of the new state, despite the disapproval of the international community.
Under the new Constitution, the Central Bank will henceforth no longer be independent of the government (odd idea in these financially turbulent times), as will the Constitutional Court and the media (many journalists have already been sacked under the new press law). The leaders of the current Socialist Party, meanwhile, can be prosecuted retroactively for "communist crimes" committed before 1989.
Added to this are a rash of laws on subjects ranging from the status of Hungarians living abroad to heterosexual marriage. Hungary has become a more authoritarian state, bucking the modern trend. This is a cause for concern for the European Union and Barack Obamas United States, as well as the International Monetary Fund, which has suspended negotiations on a massive loan to support the battered forint.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Unemployment level in the eurozone, the 17-nation European monetary union, has remained at an all-time record high at 10.3 per cent for the second month running in November, official figures show.
The Eurostat data agency estimated that more than 16.3 million adults were out of work in the eurozone in November after the ranks of the unemployed rose by 587,000 compared with November the previous year, according to the data released on Friday.
The ranks of the unemployed has stayed above 10 per cent for seven consecutive months across the bloc as the monetary union struggles to create more jobs amid mounting debt crisis.
The highest unemployment rate was registered once again in Spain, the biggest in the 27-nation European Union [EU], where it rose to 22.9 per cent, while 18.8 per cent of Greeks were without a job.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Although the Popular Party (PP) says that the situation it inherited from the Socialists is "exceptional" and requires "unpopular" measures, nobody should expect Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to appear in public to explain them any time soon.
The most visible face of the center-right government has so far been Rajoy's deputy, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, who confirmed on Thursday that the nation's leader will address Congress before February. The PP's absolute majority enables it to stop requests for Rajoy to personally explain why his administration is already breaking its campaign promises, including a pledge not to raise taxes and not to cut into social benefits.
It was up to Santamaría to explain on Thursday that the series of U-turns is due to the fact that "the reality is quite another" to what was expected, forcing the government to adopt "tougher measures of an extraordinary nature." She said the Socialist government had not warn her party that the budget deficit would be closer to eight percent than six percent, nor that the Social Security system surplus would vanish.
On Thursday, the Cabinet did not adopt any new measures, but prepared two initiatives to be fleshed out in the coming weeks: a plan to combat tax fraud and the elimination of public agencies, foundations and corporations, of which there are over 4,000 across the territory. In both cases, the goal is to slim down the deficit in partnership with regional governments.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)...
The transportation and warehouse sector, for instance, hired 50,000 workers last month to lead the way, but 42,000 of those positions were for couriers and messengers.
In addition, the retail industry filled 28,000 positions while leisure and hospitality businesses such as bars and restaurants created 21,000 jobs.
Economists say job increases in those sectors are often reversed in January. As a result, few are predicting steady 200,000 payroll increases in the months ahead, especially given high U.S. debt levels, the ongoing European debt crisis and cutbacks in government spending.
DemReadingDU
(16,000 posts)1/6/12 Karl Denninger: The Employment Situation
Let's see what we actually have in here.
Here's the problem with this report -- the non-institutional working-age population went from 240.441 million to 240.584, a gain of 143,000 people of working age. But the number of employed people went down from 141.070 million to 140.681 -- a loss of 389,000. Adding the two, which is the correct way to look at it, the economy on a population-adjusted basis lost 532,000 jobs.
click link for some charts and graphs
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=200174
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Barring a drastic turn of events, Eastman Kodak, the 131-year-old stalwart of American photography, may be headed for bankruptcy. According to the Wall Street Journal, the company will file for Chapter 11 in "the coming weeks" unless it can sell off a valuable portfolio of patents. The business icon that brought picture taking to the masses is burning its furniture to keep warm.
Kodak fits the classic profile of a 20th-century corporate dinosaur. Its headquarters are cloistered in sleepy Rochester, New York. It built itself selling camera film, a business that's been pushed into obsolescence by the digital revolution.
But the company isn't in trouble because it stood still while the world turned. Rather, Kodak has spent the past decade attempting to adapt to the changing times, often creating innovative new products, but failing to turn them into a sustainable business. Its problems are almost reminiscent of another struggling giant: AOL.
AOL has been living off the vapors of its shrinking dial-up business as management has attempted to transform it into a major media-content company. Its Patch network of local news sites has grown like Internet kudzu. It bought up the page-view machine that is The Huffington Post. And yet, it's not clear AOL will make the economics work before its legacy cash cow finally dies.
*** what happened to this iconic company makes me very sad.
DemReadingDU
(16,000 posts)Kodachrome - Paul Simon
Kodachrome film first hit the photography market in 1936 and on June 22, 2009, Kodak officially retired Kodachrome color transparency film after 74 years. Any photographer who ever took a picture has fond memories of this film and probably a few thousand 35mm Kodachrome slides stashed in a closet somewhere. Paul Simon immortalized Kodachrome film and the Nikon camera with this song in 1973.
&feature=player_embedded
Very sad too
xchrom
(108,903 posts)rfranklin
(13,200 posts)Capable of capturing great images in virtually every situation. It was the culmination of 100 years of film innovations. Beautifully soft so retouching was not usually necessary. And then came digital cameras and digital printing and it no longer made sense to use film since you had to have it processed and that cost money.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)the quality is just different between the two.
DemReadingDU
(16,000 posts)Even my 4 year old grandson can take digital pictures with a smartphone.
But there was something unique to loading up the camera with a roll of film and taking pictures.