RAIL TRAFFIC PLUMMETS -9.3% TO START 2012

[girl gone mad]

Everyone knows I think we never really had a solid recovery, but rail traffic has been one reasonably consistent source of good news which led me to believe we might just muddle through for a while. This drop is troubling. Europe is already back in a recession. What could pull us back up now? Certainly not QE₄, QE₅.. QE_n. h/t PragCap:

http://pragcap.com/rail-traffic-plummets-9-3-to-start-2012

Rail traffic has remained very strong in recent months despite concerns over recession. This week’s data doesn’t alter the trend, but is certainly an alarming decline that is worth keeping a close eye on. Overall intermodal traffic was down -9.3% while carloads declined -3.7%. This index has been somewhat volatile as of late and clearly one week doesn’t make a trend, but rail has served as a superb harbinger of recession over the last few cycles….More from the AAR:

[westerebus]

1. BDI at -7.37.

It looks like the Baltic Dry is trying to get its nose under the dog's water bowl. Not a good sign either.

I shall consult the Oracles and get back to you.

[Yo_Mama]

2. That's the January 7th week which includes a holiday

You need four weeks, and more than just intermodal. Total traffic is only down 3.1%. All the factories generally shut down, so you expect some bad readings.

On the other hand, the recent petroleum stats haven't been good either, and it sure looks like Q1 is going to be very weak, at best.

The actual release was indeed daunting:
'http://www.aar.org/AAR/NewsAndEvents/Freight-Rail-Traffic/2012/01/~/media/aar/weekly_traffic_reports/2012/2012-01-12-railtraffic.ashx

But when you realize that New Year's Day fell in the prior week in 2011, it makes this week not directly comparable year over year.

[elleng]

3. Interesting and well worth watching.

I thought recent months had been good/up. Definitely need more than intermodal to get a picture of overall activity.