First-Time Jobless Claims in U.S. Reach Lowest Level in Almost Four Years

[Purveyor]

By Bob Willis and Shobhana Chandra - Thu Jan 19 14:12:21 GMT 2012

Fewer Americans than forecast filed first-time applications for unemployment benefits last week, easing concern that post-holiday firings were on the rise.

Claims plunged by 50,000 to 352,000 in the week ended Jan. 14, the lowest level since April 2008, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 41 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected 384,000. A Labor Department spokesman said the decrease reflected volatility seen during this time of year. The four-week average, which smoothes out fluctuations, decreased to 379,000 last week from 382,500.

Companies are slowing the pace of firings and beginning to step up the pace of hiring even as a slump in Europe spurred by a default crisis may limit U.S. growth. The improvement may be a sign that companies are looking to expand their workforces as sales climb.

“You’ve got a gradual improvement in the labor market,” said Brian Jones, a senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York, whose forecast of 363,000 was the lowest. Because of “choppiness with the beginning of the calendar year, you have to look at the four-week moving average” which he said was “encouraging.”

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-19/jobless-claims-in-u-s-plunge-to-lowest-in-almost-four-years.html

[Demeter]

1. Stuff and Nonsense

People are falling off the unemployment rolls after 99+ weeks without work, while new, would-be workers cannot get on until they've gotten and lost their first job.

[dmallind]

2. How exactly does benefit eligibility affect initial claims?

[Demeter]

3. It's that "Improvement in the job market" claim that is bogus

Labor force participation hasn't been this low in decades.

[dmallind]

4. So you agree initial claims are lowest in years then - as the thread states?

[quiller4]

5. It is true that labor force participation is dropping

but a large part of that is just demographics. Baby boomer like me are opting for retirement. I opted out of the job market five years ago at 55.

I will admit that other factors are at work, too, but even before the recession their were concerns expressed about the shrinking size of the work force.