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STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Friday, 17 January 2014
[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday, 17 January 2014[font color=black][/font]
SMW for 16 January 2014
AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 16 January 2014
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Dow Jones 16,417.01 -64.93 (-0.39%)
S&P 500 1,845.89 -2.49 (-0.13%)
[font color=green]Nasdaq 4,218.69 +3.81 (0.09%)
[font color=green]10 Year 2.84% -0.01 (-0.35%)
30 Year 3.77% -0.01 (-0.26%) [font color=black]
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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
[/center]
[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
[center]
The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
[center]
Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout
[/center]
[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
[center]
LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
[/center][font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
[center]
Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
[/center]
[div]
[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]
40 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
World political chaos, statistical « smog », risk that the financial planet explodes… But solutions for the future continue to emerge
- Public announcement GEAB N°81 (January 16, 2014) -
... Historians, who usually consider that the 19th century runs from 1815 (Waterloo) to 1914 (the First World War) would certainly define the 20th century by the period 1914-2014, ending with the year in which the old system dies whilst a new one emerges. In this New Year 2014 welcome, then, to the 21st century!
We have symbolised 2013 as “the first steps in a chaotic world after” (1).
A year which was in effect the new century’s zero year and at the end of which solutions were emerging from all sides. At the beginning of 2014 the spotlight is henceforth on the Eurozone, China, Russia and the BRICS where the tools to shape the “world afterwards” are being designed with incredible rapidity: the “world before” is handing over to “the world afterwards”.
Nevertheless, there is a permanent risk of an explosion from the overheated financial planet driven by the incredible US imbalances… unresolved or little resolved. And the current transition period, certainly hopeful, is highly dangerous nevertheless. One danger is the statistical “smog” (2) which will probably characterise the year: first, the US economic and financial indices have lost any sense of direction by dint of being manipulated in order to hide the catastrophic reality; and second, the emerging world’s tools of statistical transparency aren’t sufficiently reliable to properly throw light on the reality. A collapse of visibility ongoing for several years on the one hand, the beginning of an organised transparency which the world economy needs to plan strategies on the other, in 2014 we are on statistical understanding’s trough of the wave. And that won’t be without its consequences.
Layout of the full article:
1. STATISTICAL « SMOG »
2. THE RISE IN INTEREST RATES AND THE COLLAPSE OF US REAL ESTATE
3. THE END OF STOCK EXCHANGE EUPHORIA?
4. POLITICAL CHAOS
5. 2014, THE CLEAR BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE OIL ERA
6. SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE MARCH
This public announcement contains sections 1&2.
STATISTICAL « SMOG »
The current period is particularly difficult to analyse. Central bank liquidity injections have hardly any historical equivalent and act insidiously like morphine; the stock exchanges move inversely proportional to countries' health; finance and derivatives are completely out of control; the West and the US in particular are trying to hide their disastrous situation through benchmark signals which no longer say anything (like the unemployment numbers)… We have already analysed this “statistical fog” in the GEAB N° 73: the old world’s compasses are broken.
Markets bottle-fed by the Fed and not wanting to abandon the Dollar paradigm as long as there is any blood left to suck are largely responsible for this blindness. But just as the frog in boiling water doesn’t feel the temperature rise until it’s too late, having broken the thermometer is certainly convenient for maintaining the illusion but raises a suicidal trend: if the exit is already difficult to find in broad daylight, it will be impossible in the dark. As we have already said, the Eurozone has been fortunate to have been in full daylight for several years thanks to the “Euro crisis” and isn’t hiding its difficulties with a lorry load of liquidity (3), luck which isn’t benefiting the United States which is going blindfold to the precipice as we will see.
[center]
Change in major central bank balance sheets since August 2008, in percent. Source : Merk Investments[/center]
At the moment, one eye is blind and, sadly, the other can’t yet see. That part of the world which has emerged, the BRICS especially and China in particular, have only just started to build a statistical apparatus adapted to their international ambitions. Moreover, a number of Western addictions have been adopted by these countries, like the use of debt and deregulated finance, which pose new dangers. Thus China has begun to concern itself with its local government indebtedness, its “local government financing vehicles” (4) and its “shadow banking” of which no one has any idea of the size absent any reliable statistics (5). This shadow banking is both essential to finance small businesses and local communities and is uncontrollable at the moment… Hence Beijing’s acceleration to clearly see and get to regulate this sector, evidenced by the recent statistical work carried out here by the National Audit Office, where greater transparency has been demanded from Chinese banks, or as another example, the five-year prohibition on local authorities to build new government buildings with “shadow” financing (6). But despite these efforts at transparency which will quickly bear fruit, because the international situation needs a clear view, a few more years are necessary to have a reliable statistical apparatus in this country. Without counting that the Chinese government still needs areas of shadow for some time yet: one can’t switch on the lights without first having done the housework!...
THE RISE IN INTEREST RATES AND THE COLLAPSE OF US REAL ESTATE
Meanwhile, the century which is ending continues its slow death. Despite all the Fed’s actions, despite its huge programme of quantitative easing, US bond interest rates are rising inexorably. We will detail the reasons in the Telescope section and show that this trend will continue in 2014...
... The continued rise in US bond interest rates actually causes a similar increase in individuals’ borrowing rates. In 2012, 30 year mortgage rates were around 3.5%; now they are around 4.5%; a further one percentage point increase would therefore bring them to 5.5%. Yet at 3.5% a household could borrow $400,000 with monthly repayments of $1800, whilst at 5.5% it could borrow no more than $317,000 with the same monthly repayments: therefore it would need around a 20% fall in real estate prices (!) to keep the same purchasing power… As we have already seen in the GEAB N° 80, concern on this subject is becoming obvious (8) and 2014 will see a significant fall in US real estate prices as we will explain further in the Telescope section. Yet all the real estate finance works only on the assumption of rising prices (compare with 2007-2008); in addition, a huge number of Americans’ consumer loans are pledged on their houses and real estate market weakness would, therefore, spread throughout the economy. This is the really bad news of this beginning of year.
-----------
Notes:
1 Title of the GEAB n°70 (December 2012).
2 «Smog» describes the mixture of smoke and fog which regularly covered London during the Industrial Revolution.
3 This largely explains the lower growth. In the US, official growth in 2013 was only around $400 billion (around 2.5% of GDP) whilst the Fed injected more than $1 trillion into the economy… A "loss" of $600 billion. During the same period, the ECB withdrew around $1 trillion (€730 billion, source ECB) for almost no growth, a "gain" of $1 trillion. Who is in poor health?...
4 Source : Ecns.ch, 08/01/2014
5 On this subject and what follows read Les Échos (10/01/2014), Bloomberg (09/01/2014).
6 Source : La Croix, 30/07/2013.
...
8 See also the worrying article in MarketWatch (14/01/2014).
Jeudi 16 Janvier 2014
LEAP/E2020
- Public announcement GEAB N°81 (January 16, 2014) -
... Historians, who usually consider that the 19th century runs from 1815 (Waterloo) to 1914 (the First World War) would certainly define the 20th century by the period 1914-2014, ending with the year in which the old system dies whilst a new one emerges. In this New Year 2014 welcome, then, to the 21st century!
We have symbolised 2013 as “the first steps in a chaotic world after” (1).
A year which was in effect the new century’s zero year and at the end of which solutions were emerging from all sides. At the beginning of 2014 the spotlight is henceforth on the Eurozone, China, Russia and the BRICS where the tools to shape the “world afterwards” are being designed with incredible rapidity: the “world before” is handing over to “the world afterwards”.
Nevertheless, there is a permanent risk of an explosion from the overheated financial planet driven by the incredible US imbalances… unresolved or little resolved. And the current transition period, certainly hopeful, is highly dangerous nevertheless. One danger is the statistical “smog” (2) which will probably characterise the year: first, the US economic and financial indices have lost any sense of direction by dint of being manipulated in order to hide the catastrophic reality; and second, the emerging world’s tools of statistical transparency aren’t sufficiently reliable to properly throw light on the reality. A collapse of visibility ongoing for several years on the one hand, the beginning of an organised transparency which the world economy needs to plan strategies on the other, in 2014 we are on statistical understanding’s trough of the wave. And that won’t be without its consequences.
Layout of the full article:
1. STATISTICAL « SMOG »
2. THE RISE IN INTEREST RATES AND THE COLLAPSE OF US REAL ESTATE
3. THE END OF STOCK EXCHANGE EUPHORIA?
4. POLITICAL CHAOS
5. 2014, THE CLEAR BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE OIL ERA
6. SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE MARCH
This public announcement contains sections 1&2.
STATISTICAL « SMOG »
The current period is particularly difficult to analyse. Central bank liquidity injections have hardly any historical equivalent and act insidiously like morphine; the stock exchanges move inversely proportional to countries' health; finance and derivatives are completely out of control; the West and the US in particular are trying to hide their disastrous situation through benchmark signals which no longer say anything (like the unemployment numbers)… We have already analysed this “statistical fog” in the GEAB N° 73: the old world’s compasses are broken.
Markets bottle-fed by the Fed and not wanting to abandon the Dollar paradigm as long as there is any blood left to suck are largely responsible for this blindness. But just as the frog in boiling water doesn’t feel the temperature rise until it’s too late, having broken the thermometer is certainly convenient for maintaining the illusion but raises a suicidal trend: if the exit is already difficult to find in broad daylight, it will be impossible in the dark. As we have already said, the Eurozone has been fortunate to have been in full daylight for several years thanks to the “Euro crisis” and isn’t hiding its difficulties with a lorry load of liquidity (3), luck which isn’t benefiting the United States which is going blindfold to the precipice as we will see.
[center]
Change in major central bank balance sheets since August 2008, in percent. Source : Merk Investments[/center]
At the moment, one eye is blind and, sadly, the other can’t yet see. That part of the world which has emerged, the BRICS especially and China in particular, have only just started to build a statistical apparatus adapted to their international ambitions. Moreover, a number of Western addictions have been adopted by these countries, like the use of debt and deregulated finance, which pose new dangers. Thus China has begun to concern itself with its local government indebtedness, its “local government financing vehicles” (4) and its “shadow banking” of which no one has any idea of the size absent any reliable statistics (5). This shadow banking is both essential to finance small businesses and local communities and is uncontrollable at the moment… Hence Beijing’s acceleration to clearly see and get to regulate this sector, evidenced by the recent statistical work carried out here by the National Audit Office, where greater transparency has been demanded from Chinese banks, or as another example, the five-year prohibition on local authorities to build new government buildings with “shadow” financing (6). But despite these efforts at transparency which will quickly bear fruit, because the international situation needs a clear view, a few more years are necessary to have a reliable statistical apparatus in this country. Without counting that the Chinese government still needs areas of shadow for some time yet: one can’t switch on the lights without first having done the housework!...
THE RISE IN INTEREST RATES AND THE COLLAPSE OF US REAL ESTATE
Meanwhile, the century which is ending continues its slow death. Despite all the Fed’s actions, despite its huge programme of quantitative easing, US bond interest rates are rising inexorably. We will detail the reasons in the Telescope section and show that this trend will continue in 2014...
... The continued rise in US bond interest rates actually causes a similar increase in individuals’ borrowing rates. In 2012, 30 year mortgage rates were around 3.5%; now they are around 4.5%; a further one percentage point increase would therefore bring them to 5.5%. Yet at 3.5% a household could borrow $400,000 with monthly repayments of $1800, whilst at 5.5% it could borrow no more than $317,000 with the same monthly repayments: therefore it would need around a 20% fall in real estate prices (!) to keep the same purchasing power… As we have already seen in the GEAB N° 80, concern on this subject is becoming obvious (8) and 2014 will see a significant fall in US real estate prices as we will explain further in the Telescope section. Yet all the real estate finance works only on the assumption of rising prices (compare with 2007-2008); in addition, a huge number of Americans’ consumer loans are pledged on their houses and real estate market weakness would, therefore, spread throughout the economy. This is the really bad news of this beginning of year.
-----------
Notes:
1 Title of the GEAB n°70 (December 2012).
2 «Smog» describes the mixture of smoke and fog which regularly covered London during the Industrial Revolution.
3 This largely explains the lower growth. In the US, official growth in 2013 was only around $400 billion (around 2.5% of GDP) whilst the Fed injected more than $1 trillion into the economy… A "loss" of $600 billion. During the same period, the ECB withdrew around $1 trillion (€730 billion, source ECB) for almost no growth, a "gain" of $1 trillion. Who is in poor health?...
4 Source : Ecns.ch, 08/01/2014
5 On this subject and what follows read Les Échos (10/01/2014), Bloomberg (09/01/2014).
6 Source : La Croix, 30/07/2013.
...
8 See also the worrying article in MarketWatch (14/01/2014).
Jeudi 16 Janvier 2014
LEAP/E2020
And more to come, bringing strong unusually cold northerly winds and dangerous breaking waves (bottom-left below)...
[center] 
[/center]
http://www.businessinsider.com/harvey-weinstein-nra-film-2014-1
Hollywood movie mogul Harvey Weinstein has warned the National Rifle Association (NRA) he plans to make a movie with Meryl Streep that will make them "wish they weren’t alive."
The NRA did not immediately respond Thursday to the warning, made in an interview on shock-jock Howard Stern's show, in which Weinstein said he hoped to turn cinema goers against the gun lobby.
"I don’t think we need guns in this country, and I hate it. I think the NRA is a disaster area," said Weinstein, known for his support for Democratic President Barack Obama and for gun control.
"I shouldn't say this, but I'll tell it to you, Howard. I'm going to make a movie with Meryl Streep, and we're going to take this head-on," Weinstein told the radio host Wednesday.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/harvey-weinstein-nra-film-2014-1#ixzz2qeXvo5nT
Hollywood movie mogul Harvey Weinstein has warned the National Rifle Association (NRA) he plans to make a movie with Meryl Streep that will make them "wish they weren’t alive."
The NRA did not immediately respond Thursday to the warning, made in an interview on shock-jock Howard Stern's show, in which Weinstein said he hoped to turn cinema goers against the gun lobby.
"I don’t think we need guns in this country, and I hate it. I think the NRA is a disaster area," said Weinstein, known for his support for Democratic President Barack Obama and for gun control.
"I shouldn't say this, but I'll tell it to you, Howard. I'm going to make a movie with Meryl Streep, and we're going to take this head-on," Weinstein told the radio host Wednesday.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/harvey-weinstein-nra-film-2014-1#ixzz2qeXvo5nT
