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STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Tuesday, 1 April 2014
[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, 1 April 2014[font color=black][/font]
SMW for 31 March 2014
AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 31 March 2014
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Dow Jones 16,457.66 +134.60 (0.82%)
S&P 500 1,872.34 +14.72 (0.79%)
Nasdaq 4,198.99 +43.24 (1.04%)
[font color=green]10 Year 2.72% -0.04 (-1.45%)
30 Year 3.56% -0.03 (-0.84%) [font color=black]
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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
[/center][font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
02/06/14 Matthew Martoma convicted of insider trading while at hedge fund SAC (Stephen A. Cohen) Capital Advisors. Expected sentence 7-10 years.
03/24/14 Annette Bongiorno, Bernard Madoff's secretary; Daniel Bonventre, director of operations for investments; JoAnn Crupi, an account manager; and Jerome O'Hara and George Perez, both computer programmers convicted of conspiracy to defraud clients, securities fraud, and falsifying the books and records.
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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]
32 replies
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= new reply since forum marked as read
http://mattstoller.tumblr.com/post/80733840834/whoa-did-warren-buffett-get-this-massively-important
In November 22, 1999, Warren Buffett gave a speech in which he famously said he didn’t invest in technology stocks. His rationale was that you can’t predict who the winners and losers will be, only that society usually benefits. He cited the auto and airplane industries as losers for investors but winners for society. Anyway, on to Buffett’s bad prediction - in the speech he noted that the next 17 years of returns for equities would probably be lower than the spectacular returns from 1983-1999 (true), but that the standard of living for most people would be much higher.
Here’s a graph of median income for the last 17 years.
In November 22, 1999, Warren Buffett gave a speech in which he famously said he didn’t invest in technology stocks. His rationale was that you can’t predict who the winners and losers will be, only that society usually benefits. He cited the auto and airplane industries as losers for investors but winners for society. Anyway, on to Buffett’s bad prediction - in the speech he noted that the next 17 years of returns for equities would probably be lower than the spectacular returns from 1983-1999 (true), but that the standard of living for most people would be much higher.
They will have by then grown considerably wealthier, simply because the American business establishment that they own will have been chugging along, increasing its profits by 3% annually in real terms. Best of all, the rewards from this creation of wealth will have flowed through to Americans in general, who will be enjoying a far higher standard of living than they do today. That wouldn’t be a bad world at all—even if it doesn’t measure up to what investors got used to in the 17 years just passed.
Here’s a graph of median income for the last 17 years.
LET'S TP THE TPP! (MIDWESTERN JOKE)
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/03/countries-rejecting-trade-deal-provisions-let-investor-panels-trump-national-regulation.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29
This is a welcome bit of good news. Countries are finally standing up for the rule of law over rule by multinational corporation...The most troubling feature of the stalled but far from (?DEFUNCT? DEAD?) trade deals, the TransPacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, is that they would increase the power of investor panels to overrule national laws. Here are some overview sections on these tribunals from a November post that contains a good deal more information:
Let’s give more detail on how heinous this deal and its ugly sister, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, aka the Trans Atlantic Free Trade Agreement, are. They would extend the authority of secret arbitration panels to hear cases against governments and issue awards. Mind you, the premise of these panels is that some of the signatory nations have banana republic legal systems that might authorize the expropriation of assets, like factories, so foreign investors need recourse to safe venues to obtain compensation. This is a ludicrous proposition to most of the signatories, not only to signatories of the Atlantic agreement (all advanced economies with mature legal systems) as well as potential signatories like Singapore, Japan, Canada, and Australia (and while America’s judicial system leaves a lot to be desired, it can hardly be accused of being unfriendly to commercial interests)….
Now consider what this means. These companies are not suing for actual expenses or loss of assets; they are suing for loss of potential future profits. They are basically acting as if their profit in a particular market was guaranteed absent government action. And no one else enjoys these rights. Consider highly paid workers in nuclear plants. Will they get payments commensurate with the premium they’ve lost over the balance of their working lives from the phaseout of nuclear power? Will cigarette vendors in Australia get compensated for the decline in their sales? Commerce involves risk, which means exposure to loss, yet foreign investors want, and seem able to get, “heads I win, tails you lose” deals via these trade agreements.
Now consider what this means. These companies are not suing for actual expenses or loss of assets; they are suing for loss of potential future profits. They are basically acting as if their profit in a particular market was guaranteed absent government action. And no one else enjoys these rights. Consider highly paid workers in nuclear plants. Will they get payments commensurate with the premium they’ve lost over the balance of their working lives from the phaseout of nuclear power? Will cigarette vendors in Australia get compensated for the decline in their sales? Commerce involves risk, which means exposure to loss, yet foreign investors want, and seem able to get, “heads I win, tails you lose” deals via these trade agreements.
And this system is deeply corrupt:
And it’s even worse than you imagine once you understand how these panels work. Recall how Public Citizen mentioned the role of the panelists who go between working for the companies and serving on the panels? A small and tight-knit group has disproportionate influence:
Consider the implications of the fact that the 15, and the larger community of panel “regulars,” work both sides of the street. They draw cases that go before the trade panel, as well as hear them. Thus it’s in their interest to issue aggressive rulings in order to facilitate more cases being filed.
Consider the implications of the fact that the 15, and the larger community of panel “regulars,” work both sides of the street. They draw cases that go before the trade panel, as well as hear them. Thus it’s in their interest to issue aggressive rulings in order to facilitate more cases being filed.
The Wikileaks release of two highly contested chapters of the TransPacific Partnership appears to have solidified opposition to its worst provisions, the investor panels. And in an very encouraging development, Germany also wants these panels removed from the deals.
And this rebellion looks to be turning into a rout. Martin Khor tells us not only are countries opposed to these provisions in new trade agreements, but they are unwinding them in existing deals...
MORE, MUCH MORE AT LINK
This sort of out-of-control inequality recalls similar class divides in 18th and 19th century France that were reversed only by sharp-edged popular responses.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alea_iacta_est
Alea iacta est (English: "The die has been cast"
is a Latin phrase attributed by Suetonius (as iacta alea est [ˈjakta ˈaːlea est]) to Julius Caesar on January 10, 49 BC as he led his army across the River Rubicon in Northern Italy. With this step, he entered Italy at the head of his army in defiance of the Senate and began his long civil war against Pompey and the Optimates. The phrase is still used today in Italy (Italian: "Il dado è tratto" to mean that events have passed a point of no return, that something inevitably will happen.
Meaning and form
The historian Frances Titchener has given a stylized description of the context of Caesar's pronouncement:
Caesar was said to have borrowed the phrase from Menander, his favourite Greek writer of comedy; the phrase appears in “Ἀρρηφόρος” (Arrephoros,) (or possibly “The Flute-Girl”), as quoted in Deipnosophistae, Book 13, paragraph 8. Plutarch reports that these words were said in Greek:
Suetonius, a contemporary of Plutarch writing in Latin, reports a similar phrase.
Caesar: ... "Iacta alea est", inquit.
Caesar said ... "the die has been cast".
— Suetonius, Vita Divi Iuli (The Life of the deified Julius), 121 CE, paragraph 33
Lewis and Short, citing Casaubon and Ruhnk, suggest that the text of Suetonius should read Jacta alea esto, which they translate as "Let the die be cast!", or "Let the game be ventured!". This matches Plutarch's third-person aorist imperative ἀνερρίφθω κύβος (anerrhiphtho kybos).
By the first century AD alea refers to the early form of backgammon that was played in Caesar's time. Augustus (Octavian) mentions winning this game in a letter. Dice were common in Roman times, and generally known as cubus.
The English phrase "the die is cast" is commonly used with a different (and semantically appropriate) meaning, that the nature or form of something has already been determined – "the mold has been created."
Alea iacta est (English: "The die has been cast"
is a Latin phrase attributed by Suetonius (as iacta alea est [ˈjakta ˈaːlea est]) to Julius Caesar on January 10, 49 BC as he led his army across the River Rubicon in Northern Italy. With this step, he entered Italy at the head of his army in defiance of the Senate and began his long civil war against Pompey and the Optimates. The phrase is still used today in Italy (Italian: "Il dado è tratto" to mean that events have passed a point of no return, that something inevitably will happen.
Meaning and form
The historian Frances Titchener has given a stylized description of the context of Caesar's pronouncement:
We know from Caesar's journals] that Caesar is not taking this lightly. He knows that if he marches on Rome with his armies, then he is a public enemy, and that he will either have to win, or die. For a Roman patrician like Julius Caesar there is no life without military service; there is no life without service to the state. He cannot simply 'go native' and stay in Gaul, and he does realise that if he goes back to Rome, he would be killed. At this time the northernmost border of the Roman territory in Italy is the River Rubicon. Once someone crosses the River Rubicon, he's in Roman territory. A general must not cross that boundary with his army - he must do what the Romans call lay down his command, which means surrender his right to order troops, and certainly not be carrying weapons. Caesar and his armies hesitate quite awhile at this river while Caesar decides what to do, and Caesar tells us that he informs his soldiers that it's a little tiny bridge across the river, but once they cross it they'll have to fight their way all the way to Rome, and Caesar is well aware that he's risking not just his own life, but those of his loyal soldiers, and he might not win. Pompey is a formidable enemy. It's also impossible to avoid the fact that Caesar was attacking the state, and as a patrician Roman this would have been very difficult for him, equivalent to beating up your father. He wouldn't have done any of this lightly. Finally he makes a decision, it's time to go, and he uses a gambling metaphor: he says 'Roll the dice', 'Alea jacta esto'. Once the dice start rolling they cannot be controlled, even though we don't know what it is as the dice roll and tumble. Julius and his men swiftly cross the river and they march double time toward Rome, where they almost beat the messengers sent to inform the Senate of their arrival.
— Titchener, To Rule Mankind and Make the World Obey
— Titchener, To Rule Mankind and Make the World Obey
Caesar was said to have borrowed the phrase from Menander, his favourite Greek writer of comedy; the phrase appears in “Ἀρρηφόρος” (Arrephoros,) (or possibly “The Flute-Girl”), as quoted in Deipnosophistae, Book 13, paragraph 8. Plutarch reports that these words were said in Greek:
Ἑλληνιστὶ πρὸς τοὺς παρόντας ἐκβοήσας, «Ἀνερρίφθω κύβος», (anerriphtho kybos) διεβίβαζε τὸν στρατόν.
Caesar declared in Greek with loud voice to those who were present 'Let the die be cast' and led the army across.
— Plutarch, Life of Pompey, 60.2.9[4]
Caesar declared in Greek with loud voice to those who were present 'Let the die be cast' and led the army across.
— Plutarch, Life of Pompey, 60.2.9[4]
Suetonius, a contemporary of Plutarch writing in Latin, reports a similar phrase.
Caesar: ... "Iacta alea est", inquit.
Caesar said ... "the die has been cast".
— Suetonius, Vita Divi Iuli (The Life of the deified Julius), 121 CE, paragraph 33
Lewis and Short, citing Casaubon and Ruhnk, suggest that the text of Suetonius should read Jacta alea esto, which they translate as "Let the die be cast!", or "Let the game be ventured!". This matches Plutarch's third-person aorist imperative ἀνερρίφθω κύβος (anerrhiphtho kybos).
By the first century AD alea refers to the early form of backgammon that was played in Caesar's time. Augustus (Octavian) mentions winning this game in a letter. Dice were common in Roman times, and generally known as cubus.
The English phrase "the die is cast" is commonly used with a different (and semantically appropriate) meaning, that the nature or form of something has already been determined – "the mold has been created."
http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-to-repeat-economic-mistake-2014-4#!CmjUb
There’s a good chance that the Japanese government is about to repeat a rookie mistake that was made back in April 1997, when the sales tax was raised from 3% to 5%. Consumer spending took a dive. Today, the government is doing it again, raising the tax from 5% to 8%.
That tax hike will hit just as Abenomics seems to be losing its mojo. Household spending dropped 2.5% y/y during February. Housing starts are down 12.9% over the past two months through February. Industrial production, which rose 10.3% y/y through January--partly on expectations that consumer spending might soar before the tax hike--dropped 2.3% m/m in February.
On April 4 last year, the BOJ announced a plan to double the monetary base within two years: “Under this guideline, the monetary base--whose amount outstanding was 138 trillion yen at end-2012--is expected to reach 200 trillion yen at end-2013 and 270 trillion yen at end-2014.” In February, it was 210 trillion yen, suggesting a 29% increase by the end of the year. Yet, as I’ve been noting recently, there are mounting signs that this monetary “arrow” of Abenomics has been missing its mark.
Read more: http://blog.yardeni.com/2014/04/japan-is-doing-it-again-excerpt.html#ixzz2xdWMB1nY
There’s a good chance that the Japanese government is about to repeat a rookie mistake that was made back in April 1997, when the sales tax was raised from 3% to 5%. Consumer spending took a dive. Today, the government is doing it again, raising the tax from 5% to 8%.
That tax hike will hit just as Abenomics seems to be losing its mojo. Household spending dropped 2.5% y/y during February. Housing starts are down 12.9% over the past two months through February. Industrial production, which rose 10.3% y/y through January--partly on expectations that consumer spending might soar before the tax hike--dropped 2.3% m/m in February.
On April 4 last year, the BOJ announced a plan to double the monetary base within two years: “Under this guideline, the monetary base--whose amount outstanding was 138 trillion yen at end-2012--is expected to reach 200 trillion yen at end-2013 and 270 trillion yen at end-2014.” In February, it was 210 trillion yen, suggesting a 29% increase by the end of the year. Yet, as I’ve been noting recently, there are mounting signs that this monetary “arrow” of Abenomics has been missing its mark.
Read more: http://blog.yardeni.com/2014/04/japan-is-doing-it-again-excerpt.html#ixzz2xdWMB1nY
http://www.businessinsider.com/spanish-pmi-2014-4
The fates of various peripheral European economies continue to differ wildly in this post-crisis era.
As we wrote earlier, Greece continues to show signs of deep weakness, with its March PMI manufacturing report already backsliding from a month earlier.
The flipside is Spain, whose economy is on a gigantic tear.
The chart is making a very nice V-formation, and the index is now at its highest level in nearly 4 years.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/spanish-pmi-2014-4#ixzz2xdX7V4jq
The fates of various peripheral European economies continue to differ wildly in this post-crisis era.
As we wrote earlier, Greece continues to show signs of deep weakness, with its March PMI manufacturing report already backsliding from a month earlier.
The flipside is Spain, whose economy is on a gigantic tear.
The chart is making a very nice V-formation, and the index is now at its highest level in nearly 4 years.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/spanish-pmi-2014-4#ixzz2xdX7V4jq
http://www.businessinsider.com/eurozone-unemployment-2014-4
The Eurozone unemployment rate chart is still the ugliest chart in the world.
There was some slight improvement in the last month... from 12% to 1.9%. But overall this is a terrible chart because it's been so bad for so long, without any real indication of improvement. Ever.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/eurozone-unemployment-2014-4#ixzz2xdYJgAS8
The Eurozone unemployment rate chart is still the ugliest chart in the world.
There was some slight improvement in the last month... from 12% to 1.9%. But overall this is a terrible chart because it's been so bad for so long, without any real indication of improvement. Ever.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/eurozone-unemployment-2014-4#ixzz2xdYJgAS8
http://www.businessinsider.com/march-official-china-pmi-2014-3#!CnhzC
China's official manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.3 in March.
This beat expectations for a modest decline to 50.1, and is up from a reading of 50.2 in February.
A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
We've already seen HSBC PMI fall into contractionary territory.
Bank of America's Ting Lu is looking for PMI to hold steady in part because of seasonality.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/march-official-china-pmi-2014-3#ixzz2xdh0M44Q
China's official manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.3 in March.
This beat expectations for a modest decline to 50.1, and is up from a reading of 50.2 in February.
A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
We've already seen HSBC PMI fall into contractionary territory.
Bank of America's Ting Lu is looking for PMI to hold steady in part because of seasonality.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/march-official-china-pmi-2014-3#ixzz2xdh0M44Q