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Mon Aug 31, 2015, 09:53 AM

China Entering Ugly Recession, Not Just a “Hard Landing?”


China Entering Ugly Recession, Not Just a “Hard Landing?”
by Wolf Richter • August 29, 2015


A “hard landing” would be tough for China. But it would still mean economic growth, if very slow growth by Chinese standards. At worst, it would mean stagnation. But now, evidence is piling up that the economy is actually shrinking.

There is practically universal agreement outside official Chinese reporting that the economy hasn’t been growing at anything near the official and for most countries awesome rate of 7% in the last two quarters.

In the US, we don’t know what our quarterly GDP growth is either. We get the first estimate, which may be negative, and then the second estimate, which may be worse. Then the third estimate may suddenly be positive, by which time people stopped paying attention. GDP continues to be revised years later. It’s tough to measure a big economy.

But China doesn’t even revise its GDP growth number. It comes out shortly after the quarter ends and stands as rock-solid as the Communist Party itself. And it always matches or exceeds the decreed target.

Hence no one believes it. ......................(more)

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/29/china-entering-a-recession-not-just-a-hard-landing/




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