Austerity projected to raise Argentine unemployment from current 5.9% to 10% by year's end.

[forest444]

According to private estimates published Friday, unemployment in Argentina could reach double digits before the end of 2016. The projected increase would be as a result of the recession in Brazil, the slowdown in China, a fall in consumption as a result of devaluation-driven inflation, lower export commodity prices, and the current wave of layoffs in both the state and the private sector.

"The floor for unemployment this year is 10%," estimated the chief economist at the Institute of Thought and Policy (Ipypp) Claudio Lozano. Speaking to local news daily Perfil, Lozano warned that the figure could be as high as 12%. Argentina has not seen double-digit unemployment since 2006.

Public sector layoffs since the right-wing administration of President Mauricio Macri took office a month ago have thus far been the main contributors to the sudden spike in unemployment. The National Union of Civil Servants (UPCN) estimates that between the national government, provinces, and municipalities, layoffs have already affected around 18,000 workers and that the number could climb to 65,000.

Layoffs are likewise impacting the private sector. The consulting firm Economic Trends counted 5,439 corporate layoffs in December, five times more than a year ago. The Social Law Monitor for the CTA, the nation's second largest labor federation, estimates that, including the first half of January, layoffs have reached 10,000. These include poultry processor Red Crest (5,000), Austral Construction (1,800), numerous smaller builders (2,000), Tecpetrol (500), Paraná Metal (180), San Lorenzo Ceramics (100), Expofrut (109), and subway operator Metrovías (26), among others. A further 2,700 employees have been placed on rolling furloughs at Techint, the nation's largest steel maker.

In this context, the report of the CTA explains that "the success of the ongoing austerity program requires as a prerequisite a substantial drop in workers' wages. Indeed, the brutal transfer of resources that have been implemented by the Macri government (currency devaluation, removal of export taxes) together with sharp fiscal austerity measures such as the elimination of public services subsidies, inevitably lead to a cut in the share of national income received by workers."

According to the report, President Mauricio Macri's policies aimed to "scare public sector workers, while sending a signal to employers and workers in the private sector not only through high impact measures such as state sector layoffs; but also through rhetoric."

"Employers," the report concluded, "have begun this year's round of collective bargaining negotiations with increased layoffs as a terror tool, and thus meant to weaken the bargaining position of workers."

At: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=http://www.politicargentina.com/notas/201601/11099-crece-el-temor-por-el-desempleo-calculan-que-llegara-a-dos-digitos.html&prev=search
______________________________________

Little wonder then that even Bloomberg News - no friend of the labor movement - projects that Argentine GDP will decline by 3% this year and a further 3% in 2017. It had doubled between 2002 and 2015, and was still growing by 2.8% when Macri took office.

[valerief]

1. Is Argentina any different from Michigan?

[forest444]

3. It is in the sense that they had managed to dig themselves out of depression under the Kirchners.

They made their share of mistakes (mostly political); but GDP and industrial production doubled, real wages (even using higher private inflation estimates) rose 75%, unemployment fell from 24% to 6%, auto sales up six-fold, and the middle class doubled to 60% of the population (per international estimates).

But there was a hitch: the right-wing landowners didn't like paying taxes for the first time ever - and least of all having a President who looked like their maids.

It may just be 2,000 families; but they have their ideological supporters (Catholic fundamentalists, Dirty War apologists, and the like), and mostly importantly the media.

The worst part is, these types already bankrupted Argentina twice - in 1981 and 2001. The formula was always the same: privatize, deregulate, bail out speculators, pass the bad loans onto the public, and of course quash wages and labor rights.

You know what they say about those who forget history.

[valerief]

5. Thanks! nt

[forest444]

6. My pleasure, as always.

[Warpy]

2. Then the "punish those greedy workers" conservative crowd will have their thumbs up their asses

and ask each other if more austerity measures will work better. The answer will always be yes.

I wish voters would stop falling for these ignorant grifters.

[forest444]

4. Big media attacks on one hand, and enough racist voters on the other, make for a powerful brew.

And Macri was narrowly elected by riding on both (the narrowest in Argentine history, in fact).

History will have to show that the right's most astute contribution to political discourse, was the idea of the (dark-skinned) welfare queen - and Macri's friends in the media played it up to the hilt. The number of otherwise moderate and reasonable people who will vote for right-wing candidates - even when experience tells them they'll probably end up losing - cannot be understated.