U.S. labor market tightening; inflation pressures muted

[mahatmakanejeeves]

BUSINESS NEWS DECEMBER 13, 2018 / 9:07 AM / UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO

U.S. labor market tightening; inflation pressures muted

Lucia Mutikani
6 MIN READ

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits tumbled to near a 49-year low last week, which could ease concerns about a slowdown in the labor market and economy.
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Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000 for the week ended Dec. 8, the Labor Department said. The decline in applications, which was the largest since April 2015, was likely exaggerated by difficulties adjusting the data around this time of the year.

Claims hit 202,000 in mid-September, which was the lowest level since December 1969. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 225,000 in the latest week. ... Claims shot up to an eight-month high of 235,000 during the week ended Nov. 24. The Labor Department said only claims for Virginia were estimated last week. ... The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 3,750 to 224,750 last week.
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Last week’s sharp drop in claims also suggests a slowdown in job growth in November was likely the result of worker shortages. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 jobs after surging by 237,000 in October.
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[progree]

1. supposedly there were enough workers around in October for there to be a gain of 237000 payroll jobs

Last edited Fri Dec 14, 2018, 02:09 PM - Edit history (1)

but suddenly, one month later, in November, there just weren't enough workers around to produce more than a tepid gain of 155,000 jobs (a 35% drop from October).

That is not the way the U.S. labor market functions. You don't have that big of a drop in labor availability in just one month.

"Last week’s sharp drop in claims also suggests a slowdown in job growth in November was likely the result of worker shortages. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 jobs after surging by 237,000 in October.

Edited to add: these numbers are seasonally adjusted, in case someone is tempted to try to concoct some calendar-based explanation, like nobody gives a fuck about finding a job during Thanksgiving week or somesuch.