STOCK MARKET WATCH - Friday, 1 May 2020

[Tansy_Gold]

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday, 1 May 2020

Previous SMW:
SMW for 30 April 2020




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON: 30 April 2020


Dow Jones 24,345.72 -288.14 (1.17%)
S&P 500 2,912.43 -27.08 (0.92%)
Nasdaq 8,889.55 -25.16 (0.28%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours:

Google Finance
MarketWatch
Bloomberg
Stocktwits
Yahoo International
CNN Money Premarket

(click on links for latest updates)

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Currencies:







Gold & Silver:



Petroleum:

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DU Economics Group Contributor Megathreads:

Progree's Economic Statistics (with links!)
mahatmakanejeeves' Rail Safety Megathread

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

st

[at140]

1. History of DJIA is fine, where is your forecast 1 week, 1 month, 6 months from now?

History of DJIA is looking in the rear view mnirror.

[flying rabbit]

3. Yeah,

But this is not about forecasting. It is a summation of the market. Google stock market predictions.

[at140]

5. History of stock market prices is available FREE at so many web sites

What I need is some guidance for the future long or short market actions from experienced traders here.
Can't make any money looking in the rear view mirror.

[progree]

6. Maybe you can post something here looking into the future, or start your own thread.

Last edited Fri May 1, 2020, 12:37 PM - Edit history (2)

What I need is some guidance for the future long or short market actions from experienced traders here

I don't know any such "experienced traders" in this group (or in Personal Finance and Investing group either) -- at least none that claim to be particularly successful. Oh, occasionally (when the market is down), someone will claim they sold their stocks in some prior month and year because of the orange shit gibbon, but there is no way to check out anonymous claims like these. And usually one doesn't hear from them again when the market goes on to new highs.

Another thing often posted here, is that when the market is way up, "it's a bubble". And when it goes down, it's "see I told you so". Is that the kind of guidance you are looking for from the "experienced traders"? Because that's about all I've seen.

I can't say I have much more or better to offer, sorry. I'm a boring buy-and-hold type (generally) of mutual funds and ETFs, not a trader. Although I did a couple of equity reductions during the Trump admininstration (breaking my buy-and-hold rules), and so far they've both been bad moves.

[Tansy_Gold]

10. Talk to your broker

We don't dispense guidance or advice here. (See disclaimer at the bottom of the daily post.)

[at140]

12. Tansy_gold....I appreciate all the work you do posting here!

I was NOT trying to disparage your work. It's just that no one has ever given me guidance for future performance with some guarantee.
My stock trading goes way back to 1963. So I have long concluded no one has a clue what the market will do next. Wouldn't it be great if some broker wrote a letter giving the investor guaranteed 5 or 6% return over 10 years?

[Tansy_Gold]

13. Guarantees? In the stock market?

What are you smokin'?

[at140]

14. Haha I already know NO ONE, not even Fisher Investments gives any guarantee.

May be you should start a mutual fund with base guarantee of 4%.
You will attract funds like honey attracts flies.

[Hotler]

2. Tansy, thanks for all you do here.

[progree]

7. ⇧ ⇧ ⇧ +++

[Tansy_Gold]

11. I love you guys!

[Maeve]

4. Crashing Economy, Rising Stocks:What's Going on?--Paul Krugman

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opinion/economy-stock-market-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Here's the conclusion for those who hit the paywall:

The main answer, surely, is to consider the alternative. While employment eventually recovered from the Great Recession, that recovery was achieved only thanks to historically low interest rates. The need for low rates was an indication of underlying economic weakness: businesses seemed reluctant to invest despite high profits, often preferring to buy back their own stock. But low rates were good for stock prices.

Did I mention that the stock market is not the economy?

None of this should be taken as a statement that current market valuations are exactly right. My gut sense is that investors are too eager to seize on good news; but the truth is that I have no idea where the market is headed.

The point, instead, is that the market’s resilience does, in fact, make some sense despite the terrible economic news — and by the same token does nothing to make that news less terrible. Pay no attention to the Dow; keep your eyes on those disappearing jobs.

[tclambert]

8. On May 8th the new unemployment numbers come out. Let's see what happens then.

[progree]

9. Hard to say which way the market will move on the job numbers release -- ever since March 20

I've seen many many up days after bad economic news because "it wasn't as bad as expected", and "the market is forward looking" and "remdesivir wow!" and "Fauci said ... " and "new agreement on stimulus package", and soon to come, some news about a slight thaw in the U.S.-China economic war that will result in a day or two of irrational exuberance.

The S&P 500 has moved up 19.6% since March 20, and there's been only bad economic news since then, other than a few companies here and there doing well.

But I'm guessing it will start to sink in that we're in a for-sure 2+ quarter deep recession, but I don't know when it will sink in.