April jobs report, earnings: What to know in the week ahead, Yahoo Finance

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Heidi Chung, Reporter, Yahoo Finance, May 3, 2020

Earnings season is officially halfway through, and so far, technology companies have had the best earnings reactions. Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam pointed out that the average tech name beat earnings estimates by 8.4% and rallied 2.7% on the results.

“This is important given the Technology sector’s market leadership and large weighting within the S&P 500. With Q1 earnings season at the halfway point, the S&P 500 is now expected to see a 16% earnings contraction for the full quarter. Many companies have withdrawn guidance (due to uncertainty), however, the consensus earnings estimate is now for a -35% earnings contraction in Q2, followed by directional improvement in Q3, Q4, and into 2021,” Adam said.

Jobs Report - Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the U.S. to have lost 21.3 million jobs in April, down significantly from 701,000 job losses in March. The unemployment rate is estimated to have surged to 16% from 4.4% in the prior month.

One important thing to note with April’s jobs report is that there might be some discrepancies in the two surveys. A furloughed person, who is not working but has not been laid off, will be classified as unemployed or temporarily laid off in the household survey. However, if they were paid at any point during the establishment survey period, they will be classified as employed. “The household survey is typically noisier, but it can be a better measure of job losses in an extreme downturn"

MORE: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-report-earnings-what-to-know-in-the-week-ahead-174325058.html

Progree commentary, not quotes: It's their headline, not mine. Last month the jobs reports showed a 2.987 million drop in employment in the household survey and a 701,000 drop in the headline establishment survey. The household survey produces the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate, among many others. Both the household and establishment surveys are based on a survey WEEK that included March 12th -- so it missed a lot of the shutdowns.

The jobs reports to be released this Friday, May 8, will be based on a survey WEEK that includes April 12th, if the usual pattern is followed (it might not be this time, April 12 was a Sunday, so I dunno. But the BLS says the survey week iss usually the week that includes the 12th of the month for both surveys).

By the way, the jobs report is not always released on the first Friday of the month, as some think.

https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm

The May 8 date was scheduled as far back as January 2, according to a saved copy of my calendar. (I tried archive.org, but all the 2020 snapshots were in April, and the latest 2019 snapshot didn't include any 2020 dates).

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1. P/E is higher now than it was at its February 19 all time high

Carson Block Says Stocks Will Sink, Valuations Make No Sense, Bloomberg, 5/4/20
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carson-block-sees-plunge-stocks-100000799.html

After crashing into a bear market at its fastest pace on record, the S&P 500 Index has advanced about 27% from its March low. The U.S. equity gauge trades at about 20 times estimated earnings, more expensive than when the measure hit an all-time high in February.

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2. abcde

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