The Jobs Report is a Mess, December Will Be Messier

[marmar]

The Jobs Report is a Mess, December Will Be Messier
by Wolf Richter • Dec 4, 2020 •

The cut-off date (Nov. 14) kept much of the hit from the Covid spike out of the data. Then there are the long-term hits to the American job market, such as rampant globalization.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.


Everyone seems to be baking the highly anticipated potential future vaccines into the economic cake, but what has been happening for weeks is a spike in Covid cases across the US that has already triggered economic restrictions, including various versions of stay-at-home orders in Los Angeles County, San Francisco, and some other Bay Area counties, with restaurants closed for outdoor dining, strict capacity restrictions in retail stores, and many other restrictions. These moves are ahead of the State of California’s new framework for dealing with the spiking infections.

Other states and cities have similar programs, either on the front burner or on the back burner. The Covid spike has already crimped economic activity and jobs over the past few weeks and is going to do more severely going forward.

But the jobs report released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was based on surveys of “establishments” for the pay period through November 12; and on surveys of households for the week through November 14.

So the data we got today largely missed the labor market consequences of the spike in Covid cases. Those consequence are coming in the next employment reports, starting with the report for December. ..............(more)

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/12/04/the-jobs-report-was-a-mess-december-will-be-a-bigger-mess/

[Warpy]

1. End of January will be horrific

No more pretense of seasonal employment since the season is largely not happening this year, plus inventories done and going out of business sales over.

It is going to be grisly out there for the next few months. The vaccine isn't going to help it, either, too many jobs will simply be gone.

We need massive investment at the bottom. The government is trillions in debt thanks to the reckless tax cuts for billionaires. Hard choices are going to have to be made and the Republicans will fight it every step of the way.

We need a steamroller, not detente.