Q1 GDP - Atlanta Fed's estimate of what it will be: 1.3% seas adj annual rate

[progree]

This is their estimate of real GDP at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, to be released Thursday April 28, at 830 am ET

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow



So that people aren't shocked if that occurs

It was 6.9% in Q4 2021.

Kinda odd the way the Atlanta Fed forecast (green line) bounces around wildly. And mostly deeply bearish compared to the Blue Chip consensus, though the latest Atlanta Fed forecast is a little above the middle of the Blue Chip range.

MarketWatch's economic calendar page doesn't have an estimate for this as of this writing ... they usually do but not so far out in advance, the chickens
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

[Make7]

1. Their model is driven by the raw data so it can jump around when the new data is released.

Kinda odd the way the Atlanta Fed forecast (green line) bounces around wildly.

You can see the dates when the datasets they incorporate into their model are available by hitting the Release Dates tab below the chart.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?panel=4#tabfa9ccf1bede04c3b8a3ac751883e58a90
(Hopefully that link takes you right to it.)

They probably use some historical data from the previous quarter and prior year to guesstimate values in their model prior to the actual datasets being released. Theoretically it should get closer to what the prediction should be as more of the data is added to their calculations (i.e. as the actual release date by the BEA nears).

[progree]

2. Thanks! I much appreciate the explanation

I happened to run across the GDPNow website in some notes I was going through, took a quick look at it, and popped it up here without reading much of it, so I'm glad you did.

[Make7]

3. The NY Fed suspended doing their Nowcast estimate due to volatility in data due to Covid.

Pre-Covid, it was interesting to compare the Nowcast and GDPNow numbers - they were often quite a bit different even though they are both data driven models predicting the same metric.

For example (from the final two updated Nowcast quarters):

Quarter   Nowcast   GDPNow   BEA(adv)   BEA(last)
2021Q1       6.66         7.87           6.4             6.3
2021Q2       3.12         6.43           6.5             6.7
Average       4.89         7.15           6.45           6.5


Which just goes to show that this is not an exact science - even the BEA's final, revised numbers are estimates.