Next week's major U.S. economic reports (February 13 -- February 17)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

The consumer price index gets released on Tuesday. Producer prices are released on Thursday.

MarketWatch updates the schedule throughout the week. Check their site for revisions.

THIS WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS & FED SPEAKERS

TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL MEDIAN FORECAST PREVIOUS

MONDAY, FEB. 13
11 am NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations Jan. -- 5.0%
11 am NY Fed 5-year inflation expectations Jan. -- 2.4%

TUESDAY, FEB. 14
6 am NFIB small-business index Jan. 90.0 89.8
8:30 am Consumer price index Jan. 0.4% -0.1%
8:30 am Core CPI Jan. 0.3% 0.3%
8:30 am CPI (year-over-year) Jan. 6.2% 6.5%
8:30 am Core CPI (year-over-year) Jan. 5.4% 5.7%

WEDNESDAY, FEB. 15
8:30 am Retail sales Jan. 1.7% -1.1%
8:30 am Retail sales excluding motor vehicles Jan. 0.7% -1.1%
8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index Feb. -19.2 -32.9
9:15 am Industrial production index Jan. 0.4% -0.7%
9:15 am Capacity utilization rate Jan. 79.0% 78.8%
10 am NAHB home builders' index Feb. 36 35
10 am Business inventories Dec. 0.3% 0.4%

THURSDAY, FEB. 16
8:30 am Initial jobless claims Feb. 11 200,000 196,000
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims Feb. 4 -- 1.69 million
8:30 am Producer price index final demand Jan. 0.4% -0.5%
8:30 am Building permits Jan. 1.35 million 1.34 million
8:30 am Housing starts Jan. 1.35 million 1.38 million
8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey Feb. -7.4 -8.9
11 am Household debt (SAAR) Q4 -- 8.3%

FRIDAY, FEB. 17
8:30 am Import price index Jan. -0.1% 0.4%
10 am Index of leading economic indicators Jan. -0.4% -1.0%

https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/category/markets

Chase seems to have stopped posting these. Maybe they'll start up again.

Economic outlook

Up next for the markets: November 7 – November 11

Alex Bova
Content and Communications, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

Nov 02, 2022 | 3 min read

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{snip}

[progree]

1. The +0.4% CPI might be somewhat of a shock after the last 2 months being +0.1%, -0.1%

Last edited Sun Feb 12, 2023, 05:06 PM - Edit history (2)

(assuming it does come out at +0.4% for January)

CPI report for January due Tuesday Feb 14, 8:30 am ET

Dec.   Expected for January
-----   ---------------------
-0.1%   +0.4%     Consumer price index
+0.3%   +0.3%     Core CPI

(edit: oops, see below: the BLS revised the December CPI from -0.1% to +0.1%, sigh, and the Core CPI was revised up in Dec from +0.3% to +0.4%)

THIS GRAPH FROM BEFORE THE REVISIONS:


CPI - just looked now, 2/12/23: 12 months of 2022:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
0.6 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1

Core CPI - just looked now, 2/12/23: 12 months of 2022:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4

Edited to add: Even so, if the predictions come out to be true (cpi:+0.4% and core cpi:+0.3% in January), the year over year figures will drop, because last January's numbers (Jan 2022) were +0.6% for both. The year over year is essentially a moving average of the last 12 months, and as far as changes in the year-over-year, what drops off the back end of the series (January 2022) is just as important as what gets added to the series (January 2023). True for any moving average. We tend to focus on the front end and almost forget about what drops out of the back end.

More on CPI and graphs of PCE (Fed's favorite) and PPI (wholesale prices) as well
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143027460#post20

Big Edit to add:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/ahead-of-tuesday-s-cpi-data-larry-summers-warns-further-inflation-reduction-will-be-harder-we-re-getting-closer-to-the-red-zone/ar-AA17njFG

The stock market pulled back this week amid mixed earnings news flow, and the weakness intensified on Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released revised data showing a 0.1% month-over-month increase in consumer prices for December, as opposed to the 0.1% drop reported initially. The BLS recalculates seasonal adjustment factors every year and adjusts data going back five years. The annual rate, which is not seasonally adjusted, was maintained unchanged.

Looks like I'll have to revise my graphs, sigh. Also my various calculations of last 3 months, last 6 months annualized. Tuesday will be busy busy day.

[progree]

2. See above edits - the CPI and Core CPI numbers were revised Friday, arghh, both numbers are

higher for December than initially reported. Some other months also revised. Thanks to BLS annual revisions. Winston Smith has been very busy. Now we have to do our part and catch up. The old numbers never existed.