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Q4 GDP 1st revision: 2.7% (was 2.9%), Consumer spending Q4: 1.4% (was 2.1%)
Associated Press, February 23, 2023
These are seasonally-adjusted and inflation-adjusted ANNUAL rates. The "was" in my title line is what the first estimate of Q4 was a month ago.
The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.7% annual rate from October through December, a solid showing despite rising interest rates and elevated inflation, the government said Thursday in a downgrade from its initial estimate.
. . . After-tax income, adjusted for inflation, jumped 4.8%, a much larger gain than the previous 3.3% estimate. The upward revisions reflected higher wages and salaries than was estimated earlier, and state stimulus payments that were intended to offset inflated costs of gas, food and other necessities. Twenty-one states, including California, Colorado, Florida, New York, Idaho and Pennsylvania issued one-time payments last year, typically in the form of tax refunds.
. . . (re: the downward revision of GDP and anemic 1.4% consumer spending in Q4: -Progree) More recent data, though, shows that the economy has since rebounded. Consumers boosted retail sales in January by the most in nearly two years (an increase of 3.0% in just one month -Progree), and employers added a surprisingly outsize number of jobs (517,000 jobs in January -Progree). The unemployment rate reached 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.
Some of the surprisingly strong economic gains in January likely reflected much warmer-than-usual weather. Few economists expect similar outsize gains in hiring or spending in the coming months. Most analysts think growth is slowing to a roughly 2% annual rate in the current January-March quarter.
MORE: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-revises-down-last-quarters-133457094.html
. . . After-tax income, adjusted for inflation, jumped 4.8%, a much larger gain than the previous 3.3% estimate. The upward revisions reflected higher wages and salaries than was estimated earlier, and state stimulus payments that were intended to offset inflated costs of gas, food and other necessities. Twenty-one states, including California, Colorado, Florida, New York, Idaho and Pennsylvania issued one-time payments last year, typically in the form of tax refunds.
. . . (re: the downward revision of GDP and anemic 1.4% consumer spending in Q4: -Progree) More recent data, though, shows that the economy has since rebounded. Consumers boosted retail sales in January by the most in nearly two years (an increase of 3.0% in just one month -Progree), and employers added a surprisingly outsize number of jobs (517,000 jobs in January -Progree). The unemployment rate reached 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.
Some of the surprisingly strong economic gains in January likely reflected much warmer-than-usual weather. Few economists expect similar outsize gains in hiring or spending in the coming months. Most analysts think growth is slowing to a roughly 2% annual rate in the current January-March quarter.
MORE: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-revises-down-last-quarters-133457094.html
Edited to add: Reuters reported that GDP for all of 2022 came to +2.2%. There is one last revision to Q4 a month from now, so 2.2% is not the final number.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/u-s-jobless-claims-fall-inflation-revised-higher-in-fourth-quarter/ar-AA17QHEH