Feds: 'Meteorological March madness' mostly random

[NickB79]

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2012/04/02/warm-spring-analysis/

WASHINGTON (AP) — Freak chance was mostly to blame for the record warm March weather that gripped two-thirds of the country, with man-made global warming getting only a tiny assist, a quick federal analysis shows.

..............

He said the bigger issue was wind patterns. Low pressure in the Pacific Northwest and high pressure in New England created a perfect funnel, like the gutter lane in a bowling alley, for warm air in the Gulf of Mexico to head north. That air is about 15 to 20 degrees warmer than the air in the Midwest. From time to time that air heads north, but what is unusual is that the wind pattern stayed that way for about two weeks.

Yeah, it's just the wind, not global warming, no need to be concerned. It's not like global warming can influence wind patterns or anything

[Speck Tater]

1. I can be random, but still biased in one direction.

Daily weather is still a roll of the dice. Global warming just loads the dice.

He should at least be honest about that in what he says.

[get the red out]

2. Sigh

F3 tornados rolling across 90 mile stretches of Kentucky and Indiana in MARCH! Yea, freakish wasn't it, no global warming in THAT, never mind that we're usually still worried about snow and ice during that point in late winter.

The trees are all leaved out like mid-May at this point, but that's nothing to complain about, still strange though.

[AtheistCrusader]

4. Are you suggesting it's never occurred in recorded history for the united states?

I agree with the above poster's 'loading the dice' comment though. That's very apt. We're talking averages here, percentages. Just a little bit of change can be devastating, in loss of life, or property damage.

[get the red out]

6. Some aspects of this warm weather are very, very rare

Twisters are very rare in eastern Kentucky. Violent tornadoes like what we had Friday are almost unheard of........The numbers really speak for themselves. This is a part of the state that rarely sees tornadoes and has never recorded a strong tornado. The tornadoes that touched down in West Liberty and Salyersville are likely to be classified as strong twisters and may go down as some of the strongest ever in eastern Kentucky.

http://weather.bloginky.com/2012/03/03/how-rare-are-eastern-kentucky-tornadoes/

[longship]

3. Scientists have to be more circumspect

A correlation does not imply causation. Weather is very messy. The Navier-Stokes equations are extremely difficult to solve for even less complex situations. Proving a causal relationship is very difficult, if not impossible. That's why you won't hear a climate scientist say that this record March temps were a result of global warming.

The author is correct to state that it may be a contributor, but that's as far as a responsible scientist should go because there just isn't connecting data. Without that, cause may not be concluded.

Sorry. That's just the way science works.

As before in this issue, I'm being a bit of a pedant here. But please don't get upset when a scientist says that there might not be a direct link. It means that a link cannot be demonstrated to the satisfaction of the scientific method. We all have to live with that whether we like it or not.

Thanks for the interesting post.

[Gman]

5. No doubt it's random but

somewhat influenced by global warming. But global warming is not the cause.

[NickB79]

7. I want to know what caused this unprecedented shift in the jet stream

I'm curious if the exceptionally warm winters the Arctic has been having could play a role in it, somehow drawing up warm air from the south. If that's the case, and since we already know the warming Arctic is due to climate change, then by default this shift in the air currents would be due to global warming as well.

[Dead_Parrot]

8. Ask, and ye shall receive...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/112711095

[NickB79]

9. Amazing timing!

Thanks!