Ice-free Arctic summers could happen on earlier side of predictions

[OKIsItJustMe]

https://news.agu.org/press-release/ice-free-arctic-summers-could-happen-on-earlier-side-of-predictions/

Ice-free Arctic summers could happen on earlier side of predictions

27 February 2019

WASHINGTON — The Arctic Ocean could become ice-free in the summer in the next 20 years due to a natural, long-term warming phase in the tropical Pacific that adds to human-caused warming, according to a new study.

Computer models predict climate change will cause the Arctic to be nearly free of sea ice during the summer by the middle of this century, unless human greenhouse gas emissions are greatly reduced.

But a closer examination of long-term temperature cycles in the tropical Pacific points towards an ice-free Arctic in September, the month with the least sea ice, on the earlier side of forecasts, according to a new study in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters.

…

By accounting for a long-term warming phase in the tropical Pacific, the new research shows an ice-free Arctic is more likely to occur on the earlier side of that window, closer to 2030 than 2050.

…

http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081393

[zipplewrath]

1. Everything is ahead of schedule

There's been more than one observation that climate predictions, while correct, have proven to be a bit on the conservative side. There is some suggestion that the predictions didn't take into account secondary effects which are causing massive CO2 releases.

[OnlinePoker]

2. According to many sources, it was supposed to be ice-free several years ago.

It doesn't mean it won't happen, but it's tough when they keep moving the goalposts further into the future.