Few pathways to an acceptable climate future without immediate action, according to study

[OKIsItJustMe]

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-03/tu-fpt030619.php

Public Release: 11-Mar-2019
Few pathways to an acceptable climate future without immediate action, according to study

Aggressive and immediate investments in reducing carbon dioxide emissions are key for securing a tolerable climate for future generations

Tufts University

MEDFORD/SOMERVILLE, Mass. (March 11, 2019)-- A new comprehensive study of climate change has painted over 5 million pictures of humanity's potential future, and few foretell an Earth that has not severely warmed. But with immediate action and some luck, there are pathways to a tolerable climate future, according to a research team led by Tufts University.

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While modern assessment models integrate human activity and climate, within each exist uncertainties that can affect the outcome of the model. For instance, uncertainties in population growth, the economy, technological advancement, and the climate's sensitivity to greenhouse gases could all affect the predicted results of policies and laws designed to curb global warming. The improved model described in the study helped identify scenarios which led to a more tolerable climate future by exploring a wide range of variation within each uncertainty.

"The consequences of severe warming can be dire. Given this potential for poor outcomes, it can be dangerous to consider only a few expert elicited scenarios," said Jonathan Lamontagne, Ph.D., assistant professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Tufts University and lead author of the study. "Planners need robust frameworks that broadly explore the uncertainty space for unforeseen synergies and failure mechanisms."

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The massive analysis shows that meeting that target is exceptionally difficult in all but the most optimistic climate scenarios. One pathway is to immediately and aggressively pursue carbon-neutral energy production by 2030 and hope that the atmosphere's sensitivity to carbon emissions is relatively low, according to the study. If climate sensitivity is not low, the window to a tolerable future narrows and in some scenarios, may already be closed.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0426-8

[FiveGoodMen]

1. We're screwed.

Neither party has a will to fix this.

[Boomer]

2. This goes way beyond party politics

A democratic government doesn't have the authority to impose draconian solutions on an unwilling, uncooperative populace. The level of change that we need is so drastic that it would appall the majority of people, even if they are theoretically in favor of reducing CO2 levels. No elected party would survive the backlash.

We're locked into a cultural/societal infrastructure that has developed over centuries and is impossible to restructure in a matter of years. And then there's that pesky population growth issue. Even as basic a request as "stop having children" triggers rage from the average person in an industrialized nation.

We're not screwed because of our two political parties. We're screwed because humans -- as a species -- don't have the organizing mechanisms or the psychology of mind to rip their society apart and reformulate along new lines. Paradigm-shifting change is ushered in by the catastrophic collapse of the previous system. We're not there yet.

[OKIsItJustMe]

3. Uncertain futures warn world to act as one

https://climatenewsnetwork.net/uncertain-futures-warn-world-to-act-as-one/

Uncertain futures warn world to act as one
March 15th, 2019, by Tim Radford
Different computer simulations deliver variant and uncertain futures. One research team has studied millions. And in most cases the outlook remains ominous.

LONDON, 15 March, 2019 − US scientists have peered ahead in more than five million ways, and they do not like the uncertain futures they see there. Unless the world collectively and in concert takes drastic steps to slow or halt global warming, generations to come face an intolerable prospect.

And even if humans do switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy, economise on resources and restore the world’s forests and grasslands, there is still no guarantee that disaster will not happen.

That is because the outcome depends not just on the steps humans take now, but on one of the great, unresolved scientific questions: just how sensitive is climate to shifts in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?

If sensitivity is low, and humankind acts effectively and immediately, the future could be tolerable. But in a total of 5,200,000 computer-generated scenarios involving population growth, economic development, the role of carbon in the economy and the levels of climate sensitivity, this happens only relatively infrequently.

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