Princeton Study: Back-To-Back ("Compound") Heat Waves Will Grow As Warming Accelerates
As the planet continues to warm, multi-day heat waves are projected to increase in frequency, length and intensity. The additive effects of these extreme heat events overwhelm emergency service providers and hospital staff with heat-related maladies, disrupt the electrical grid and can even cause delays in air travel. But existing studies do not consider the increased loss of life and economic hardship that could come from back-to-back — or compound — heat waves, which bring cycles of sweltering temperatures with only brief periods of normal conditions in between.
Princeton University researchers now have provided the first estimation of the potential damage wrought by sequential heat waves, according to a paper published April 12 in the journal Earth’s Future. The authors used computer simulations of Earth’s climate to find that compound heat events will increase as global warming continues and will pose greater risks to public health and safety. Compound heat waves would be especially dangerous to people who are already vulnerable to heat waves, particularly the elderly and residents of low-income areas. Government warning systems and health care outreach do not currently calculate the escalating risk these populations face from several heat waves in a row, the researchers reported. Instead, risk and response are determined by the severity of each individual episode of extreme temperatures.
Some of the deadliest heat waves on record featured fluctuating temperatures rather than single stretches of searing heat, said first author Jane Baldwin, a postdoctoral researcher in the Princeton Environmental Institute (PEI) who is also supported by the High Meadows Foundation through the Center for Policy Research on Energy and the Environment in Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.
“Averaged over time, heat waves are the most deadly type of natural disaster in the United States, in addition to causing many emergency room visits, lost working hours and lower agricultural yields,” Baldwin said. Heat waves and the droughts that can accompany them are responsible for approximately 20 % of the mortalities associated with natural hazards in the continental United States. “However, if you look at the deadliest heat waves in Europe and the United States, many have more unusual temporal structures with temperature jumping above and below extremely hot levels multiple times,” Baldwin said. Because of the shorter recovery period between events, the effects of these compound heat waves are often significantly worse than stand-alone events.
EDIT
https://www.princeton.edu/news/2019/05/08/occurrence-back-back-heat-waves-likely-accelerate-climate-change
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