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How Climate Change Will Affect the Rural Northeast: Expect Three Weeks of Heat
https://www.dartmouth.edu/press-releases/climate-change-in-the-rural-northeast-051519.htmlHow Climate Change Will Affect the Rural Northeast: Expect Three Weeks of Heat
Extreme Hot Days Will Dramatically Increase, Especially in Low Income Counties
May 15, 2019 – While extreme cold and snow often make headlines in the Northeast, by 2060, there will be far more record heat. Imagine the most sweltering day of the year. By 2060, you will experience that type of hot day for approximately three weeks of the year, assuming we don’t substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. According to a Dartmouth study, of the rural Northeast counties represented, those in the bottom two lowest income quartiles will be hit hardest, as their communities will be disproportionately affected by increases in extremely hot days relative to wealthier counties. The findings are published in the Annals of the American Association of Geographers.
Previous studies on climate change in the Northeast have often focused on urban impacts along the Eastern seaboard, but this is the first to examine future climate impacts in rural areas, including how changes in temperature and precipitation extremes may affect counties that are more vulnerable with respect to median income and population. Rural areas feature unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resource dependent economics and high poverty rates.
“Our projections suggest that climate change adaptation strategies in the rural Northeast should emphasize developing resilience to heat waves, such as increasing access to public spaces with air conditioning and improving health care responses to emergencies initiated or exacerbated by heat. This is especially important for counties in the lowest income quartile, who will be especially vulnerable to extreme heat events due in part to their growing populations,” explains lead author Jonathan Winter, an assistant professor of geography and principal investigator of the Applied Hydroclimatology Group at Dartmouth.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2018.1540920Extreme Hot Days Will Dramatically Increase, Especially in Low Income Counties
May 15, 2019 – While extreme cold and snow often make headlines in the Northeast, by 2060, there will be far more record heat. Imagine the most sweltering day of the year. By 2060, you will experience that type of hot day for approximately three weeks of the year, assuming we don’t substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. According to a Dartmouth study, of the rural Northeast counties represented, those in the bottom two lowest income quartiles will be hit hardest, as their communities will be disproportionately affected by increases in extremely hot days relative to wealthier counties. The findings are published in the Annals of the American Association of Geographers.
Previous studies on climate change in the Northeast have often focused on urban impacts along the Eastern seaboard, but this is the first to examine future climate impacts in rural areas, including how changes in temperature and precipitation extremes may affect counties that are more vulnerable with respect to median income and population. Rural areas feature unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resource dependent economics and high poverty rates.
“Our projections suggest that climate change adaptation strategies in the rural Northeast should emphasize developing resilience to heat waves, such as increasing access to public spaces with air conditioning and improving health care responses to emergencies initiated or exacerbated by heat. This is especially important for counties in the lowest income quartile, who will be especially vulnerable to extreme heat events due in part to their growing populations,” explains lead author Jonathan Winter, an assistant professor of geography and principal investigator of the Applied Hydroclimatology Group at Dartmouth.
…
From left to right: On the left illustrates the threshold for a daily extreme heat event in Fahrenheit by county in the Northeast (1976-2005). On the right is the number of daily extreme heat events for 2060 under RCP 8.5, the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Interpreted, the 1976-2005 once-per-year extreme daily heat event was 90 degrees Fahrenheit for Grafton County (where Dartmouth is located), and by the 2060s, this county will experience about 20 days of those extreme daily heat events (90+ degrees Fahrenheit). Image provided by Jonathan Winter.
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