IEA Projects No Global Emissions Peak Before 2040, And That's If All Nations Hit/Exceed Targets

[hatrack]

Carbon emissions are set to rise until 2040 even if governments meet their existing environmental targets, the International Energy Agency warned, providing a stark reminder of the drastic changes needed to alleviate the world's climate crisis.

In its annual World Energy Outlook, released on Wednesday, the IEA said a rapid reduction in emissions would require "significantly more ambitious policy action" in favor of efficiency and clean energy technologies than what is currently planned. Until then, the impact of an expanding world economy and growing populations on energy demand would continue to outweigh the push into renewables and lower-carbon technologies.

"The world needs a grand coalition encompassing governments, companies, investors and everyone who is committed to tackling the climate challenge," said Fatih Birol, IEA's executive director. "In the absence of this, the chances of reaching climate goals will be very slim." The report noted the world's reliance on fossil fuels remained "stubbornly high," with a "gap between expectations of fast, renewables-driven energy transitions and the reality of today's energy systems."

Birol pointed out that the current set of government policies would not bring the world in line with the Paris climate agreement goals of limiting temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6°F) compared to pre-industrial times, or the more aggressive 1.5°C (2.7°F) target. The IEA also modelled a "sustainable development" scenario of stricter energy efficiency policies and lower energy demand. While emissions would fall under this scenario, critics have said it does not go far enough in mapping the deep cuts needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.

EDIT

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13112019/iea-world-energy-outlook-emissions-climate-change-fossil-fuel-subsidies

[progree]

1. The summary is quite a read. But I can't find a key graph from earlier reports

It's quite a read at https://www.iea.org/weo2019/

Unfortunately, I can't find the graphic showing the different sources of energy from 2000 to present and projected to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario, like this one from the *2018* report at archive.org

https://web.archive.org/web/20191029051418/https://www.iea.org/weo/

which I took an Imgur snapshot of:


Showing that even out in 2040, if announced policies are actually followed through on, the "other renewables" which includes solar and wind, will be a small fraction of any of the fossil fuels.

In the graphic at archive.org (link above), you can hover your mouse at different points in the graphic to read the numbers.

Again the graphic shown is from the *2018* report. I wish there was something in the 2019 report like it, but I haven't found it yet.

[The_jackalope]

2. Jackalope projects no global emissions peak before 2080

By that time the global atmospheric CO2e concentration (CO2 + CH4 + NOx etc.) will be pushing 650 ppm.

A stable concentration of 650 ppm implies a final temperature equilibrium about +7C higher than today.

Given the geographic variability of temperature rise, some regions of the planet will see temperatures more than 10C higher than today.

Now, that +10C is a long-term equilibrium that will take centuries or even millennia to settle. But some places on the planet (like those that are already at +2C or more) will probably see a +5C temperature rise within the lifespan of people alive today.

Jackalope predicts that we will meet or exceed such levels because human beings.

Jackalope further projects that we are all fucked, sooner rather than later.

Jackalope advises, "Get over it."