Methane Emissions Hit a New Record and Scientists Can't Say Why, Bloomberg, 4/6/20

[progree]

Methane Emissions Hit a New Record and Scientists Can’t Say Why, Bloomberg, 4/6/20

Airborne methane levels rose markedly last year, according to a preliminary estimate published today by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ((NOAA)). The results show a dramatic leap in concentration of the second most-powerful greenhouse gas, which is emitted from both industrial and natural sources.

“Last year’s jump in methane is one of the biggest we’ve seen over the past twenty years,” said Rob Jackson, professor of Earth system science at Stanford University and chair of the Global Carbon Project. “It’s too early to say why, but increases from both agriculture and natural gas use are likely. Natural gas consumption surged more than two percent last year.”

Methane levels have accelerated twice in the last 15 years, first in 2007 and again in 2014. Scientists have yet to pinpoint the exact cause (or causes). Virtually every contributor to the global methane problem may play a role, from the oil-and-gas industry to human agriculture to wetlands changing with the climate.

Methane is about 25 times more powerful a heat-trapping gas than its nearest competitor—carbon dioxide—when extrapolated over the course of a century.
More: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/methane-emissions-hit-record-scientists-213421592.html

The fucking article never says how much the methane concentration rose, other than "a dramatic leap".

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This from the Hill
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/491424-2019-atmospheric-methane-increase-greatest-in-five-years

The average level of methane in the atmosphere increased last year by the highest amount in five years, according to preliminary data released Sunday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that the average level of methane in the atmosphere increased by 11.54 parts per billion (ppb) in 2019 over the level of methane in the atmosphere in 2018.

This is the largest increase since 2014, when the average level of atmospheric methane increased by 12.72 ppb.

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The apparent source report from NOAA, last updated April 5
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/

December 2019: 1874.7 ppb
December 2018: 1866.0 ppb
+8.7
+0.466% increase

But that's not the official annual increase -- on the left side is a table with a 11.54 ppb increase in 2019 (matching the Hill's article), which is a whole year average rather than a December over December figure.

I think the "unc" in that table stands for uncertainty.

[TreasonousBastard]

1. Trump's been doing more rallies.

[2naSalit]

2. Beat me to it!

What else can it be? Nobody is out driving or flying around the planet.

[Newest Reality]

3. Yeah,

What's with that?

Gee, have they considered environmental sources like the permafrost melting, etc?

One small fart for man, a GIANT LEAP for methane?

[Finishline42]

16. This is my guess

Permafrost was/is a huge carbon trap. Arctic temps are up by a lot and that's releasing a lot of methane.

The lack of a drop in CO2 is puzzling though.

Pollution is way down, air travel is down, traffic is almost non-existent.

I looked a bit and couldn't find how much less gas we as a nation have been using in the last month, I would think in the range of 20-30% less?

Diesel is probably constant because of trucks.

[progree]

17. Globally, IEA is only projecting "as much as" a 20% drop in oil demand "may be lost"

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1127137108 (New York Times citing IEA)

As much as 20 percent, or 20 million barrels a day, of oil demand may be lost as the global economy slows, according to the International Energy Agency. That is roughly equivalent to eliminating all U.S. consumption.

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I looked a bit and couldn't find how much less gas we as a nation have been using in the last month, I would think in the range of 20-30% less?

Twin Cities traffic is down 70% from this time a year ago. Coincidentally, Metro Transit (Twin Cities public transit) bus ridership is down 70%, though they have reduced their service by about 40%.

So yeah, I'm surprised too that there isn't more of a drop.

An IEA article I just ran across said 3 billion people are on some kind of lockdown.

[jimfields33]

4. This year should go to zero

I’m looking forward to seeing if this has fixed the climate change problem. We wanted a certain percent decreased. Instead we have a 100 percent decrease. Our climate change models have to be completely readjusted. This much decrease in carbon has to be a whole new ballgame.

[progree]

5. Huh? What's gone or going to zero?

Maybe a 0% increase in 2020 over 2019, I haven't seen any estimates. I read an article about 2 weeks ago that says the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration is imperceptible. A temporary shutdown don't solve the climate problem.

[jimfields33]

6. Carbon output

Nobody is doing anything. You have to think our climate change will be effected.

[progree]

7. Carbon output is zero? Where do you get your statistics?

[jimfields33]

8. If nobody in the world is doing anything literally

Then common sense says carbon will decrease. I mean if we can’t get it down now. When can we. It just makes sense.

[progree]

10. Nobody in the world is doing anything literally?

I do agree that carbon emissions are very likely down in March 2020 over March 2019 for example, and similarly April will almost certainly be lower than April 2019, and probably likewise for at least another month or two ... and there is obviously a reduction in economic activity

But a temporary shutdown is solving the world's climate problem?

[jimfields33]

12. I just thought that we had a certain time left to fix things

Some say 12 years, wouldn’t this extend it out some at least? Maybe 15 years?

[progree]

13. I'd guess probably not that much extra time, but add on a multiyear global recession,

which is high probability in my mind, and yeah, maybe we'd have 3+ extra years before we reach X degrees than we would have had with a normal economy.

[jimfields33]

14. It's complicated to me

Glad we have people like you and others who understand this better. DU is a treasure for me. I’ve learned so much already.

[progree]

15. Thanks for the kind and kinder-than-deserved words...

I haven't seen anything about how much this is affecting CO2 emissions, other than a 2 week ago article saying the effect so far on global CO2 concentration is imperceptible.. but that was early-on ... and U.S. GDP 2nd quarter estimates for a decline of like 24% in GDP on an annualized basis compared to Q1 (which means a roughly 6% drop of Q2 over Q1, meaning we will still have 94% of the economic activity in Q2 as we did in Q1 if the estimate turns out to be correct ... and as improbable as that sounds ... maybe those estimates were assuming everything is up and humming by late April or May 1 ... and that's just the U.S., I haven't seen any numbers for world GDP )

P.S. we'll have the first estimate of Q1 GDP on April 29.

[hatrack]

18. Unfortunately, no - March 2020 414.50 ppm, March 2019 411.97 ppm

It would pretty much have to be the Zombie Apocalypse to substantially knock down the momentum of carbon in the system, and we're not there.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

[progree]

19. Given that 2019 CO2 EMISSIONS were only 0.6% above 2018 emissions, I'm hopeful 2020 will

actually show a decline in emissions. But I'm under no illusion that the CO2 atmospheric concentration (ppm) is going to drop.

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions

[NickB79]

20. You're still using electricity posting here

Heating or cooling your house.

Eating farmed food, delivered with fossil fuels.

Driving to buy essentials.

The world hasn't stopped burning fossil fuels. If it had, a few billion of us would be starving and rioting by now, with the rest soon to follow.

We've reduced consumption, but not anywhere close to zero out our emissions.

[jimfields33]

21. Holy cow. You are right. Didn't think of those.

[Jamastiene]

9. Trump sure is running his mouth a lot every day, a lore more than normal.

All of the Republicans are constantly running their mouths right now. Just saying.

[mitch96]

11. Ok, who farted?........... really though... where is the leak? Where is the concentration? nt